Drought in Kansas, May 26 to 31, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1213 AM MDT Tue May 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Tuesday's forecast has wind gusts around 25-45 mph for
  Eastern Colorado.

- Chance for rain continue through much of the week. Highest
  chances look to be around Wed/Thu.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1211 AM MDT Tue May 26 2026

Current observations show a low near the Four Corners region with a
deeper trough moving into the Northwestern United States. At the
surface, a broad low is set up northwest of the area with winds
speeds around 10-15 mph. The shower and storm activity has ended and
shifted north of the area as the upper trough shifts slightly north.
Temperatures should reach the 50s for most of the area with some 60s
for eastern portions of the area where dewpoints are more in the 50s.

Tuesday, the deeper trough to the west is forecast to absorb the low
near the Four Corners region and shift south. With this trough
forecast to shift more south, the surface low is forecast to deepen
more in the Western United States. This has lowered how strong the
pressure gradient and winds will get compared to prior forecasts.
Winds now are forecast to be 15-30 mph with gusts of 25-45 mph. The
strongest winds continue to favor Eastern Colorado. If speeds do not
get higher than the forecast, blowing dust is no longer a concern.
Otherwise, there could be a few small plumes that try and develop.
Temperatures should otherwise be cooler with the trough expanding
and increased cloud cover potentially keeping temperatures in the
70s.

Wind isn't the only thing forecast for tomorrow. There is a low
chance for more showers and storms with a potential weak convergence
zone in the western half of the area and the potential for mid-level
moisture to move in. These could start as early as 1pm and last into
the evening if they form. The severe chances are very low with
instability forecast to be weak and some increased moisture
availability limiting the downburst potential.

Tomorrow night, any showers and storms that develop should end early
in the evening/night as the daytime heating ends. Cloud cover is
forecast to increase though as low level southeasterly flow is
forecast to bring more moisture into the area. The increased
moisture should help keep temperatures more in the 50s and 60s. One
thing we will need to watch for is the potential for fog if we get
enough low level moisture. The fog is forecast to favor those along
and south of I-70.&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 135 PM MDT Mon May 25 2026

The long term synoptic setup is looking rather unsettled over
the next 3-7 days. An upper level ridge will attempt to
establish itself across the central CONUS by the middle of this
week. However, a plume of Pacific moisture currently over the
Four Corners region looks to undercut the ridge. This will keep
the warm and dry conditions well to the north of the area.
Currently, seasonable temperatures look to persist for the
middle of the week into the weekend. The plume of Pacific
moisture will usher in above normal PWATs to the region. By
late Wednesday showers and thunderstorms are expected to begin
developing. While still a few days out, there does look to be
the chance (20-35%) for some strong to severe storms during the
afternoon/evening hours. At this time the main threats would be
large hail, heavy rain, and possibly an isolated tornado chance
(<2%). Showers look to congeal into a larger band during the
overnight Wednesday into Thursday. This would lead to greater
chances for periodic light to moderate rainfall through the
overnight into Thursday morning. The timing of this does differ
some amongst models with some showing lesser chances for
precipitation during the day Thursday due to a quicker moving
system.

Friday looks to see seasonable temperatures persist with the
possibility for a few isolated showers/thunderstorms during the
afternoon/evening. By the weekend the aforementioned low that
settled in over the Great Basin looks to finally trek out of
the region. As this disturbance shifts to the north towards
Canada, another push of moisture looks to arrive from the
south/southwest. This would lead to chances for showers and
thunderstorms both Saturday and Sunday. Models do differ
slightly with the GFS showing heavier precipitation remaining
farther west across portions of Colorado. The Euro keeps the
heaviest precipitation over Kansas but slightly east of the
CWA. There is still time for things to be shift but overall,
there is increasing chances for more precipitation for the
upcoming weekend into the start of next week. However, the exact
timing and location should come into better focus over the next
few days.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1102 PM MDT Mon May 25 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast through the
period. The main concern is for low level wind shear through the
night, with winds around 200-300ft forecast to be around
35-40kts. Winds near the surface tomorrow should be around 15-20
kts with some gusts to 30 kts. There may be a few gusts nearing
40 kts during the afternoon.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...Dziewaltowski
AVIATION...KAK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1213 AM MDT Tue May 26 2026

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-270615-
Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne CO-Cheyenne KS-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-
Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-
Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
1213 AM MDT Tue May 26 2026 /113 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.