Hail in Kansas, June 12, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
419 PM MDT Fri Jun 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a very low chance, around 10%, for a severe
  thunderstorm capable of producing 60 mph wind gusts and
  quarter size hail late this aft-eve, mainly in Greeley/
  Wichita counties between 6-10 PM MDT.

- Expect cooler temperatures and predominantly dry conditions
  this weekend. Some rain possible with scattered showers late
  Saturday night and late Sunday aft-eve.

- Wednesday's high temperatures may get to above 100 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 150 PM MDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Today-Tonight: Moist southerly return flow is underway.. as
surface high pressure shifts eastward/away from the Central
Plains, a baggy lee cyclone redevelops over south-
central/southeast CO and a low-level (surface to 850 mb) ridge
over the Deep South directs Gulf moisture poleward into the
Southern and Central Plains. Recent (12-18Z) model guidance
suggest that the KS-OK border area will be the northern extent
of rich low-level moisture (surface dewpoints in the 60's, 850
mb dewpoints >14C) this aft-eve, a bit further south than
previously indicated. Additionally, surface observations and
radar/satellite trends suggest that morning convection in the
TX-OK Panhandle and widespread morning cloud cover in southwest
KS have delayed/stunted diurnal heating. 19Z SPC mesoanalysis
forecast data indicates that a considerable amount (100-250
J/kg) of convective inhibition is likely to persist over
northwest KS and southwest NE this aft-eve.. and simulated
reflectivity forecasts via the 18Z HRRR and 12Z NAM NEST both
suggest that convective development will be confined to far
southwest KS, where low-level convergence on the eastern
periphery of the baggy lee cyclone is expected to serve as a
focus/catalyst for development. With the above in mind, dry
conditions are anticipated to prevail in the Goodland CWA. A
very low (5-10%) conditional potential for a severe storm still
exists in Greeley/Wichita counties ~00-04Z this evening, when
and where instability/shear will be sufficient for supercellular
organization. Expect highs in the mid-upper 80's to lower 90's.
With the driest conditions (RH's ~15-20%) confined to Yuma
County, CO.. where initially breezy SSE to S winds will weaken
to 10-15 mph during the mid-late afternoon, there are no
appreciable fire weather concerns today.

Sat-Sun: Unidirectional/westerly flow aloft will persist over
the the weekend. Guidance continues to suggest that a
cooler/drier airmass advecting southward into the Tri-State
Area in the wake of a modest cold frontal passage on Sat will
preclude appreciable convective development in the Goodland CWA.
Expect predominantly dry conditions with highs ~80-88F on Sat
and 65-75F on Sun.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 233 PM MDT Fri Jun 12 2026

The upper pattern for Monday has a ridge off the Pacific-
Northwest and over our area the flow is from the northwest.
Monday's highs are forecast to be in the high 70s and some
localized locations hitting above 80 degrees. The winds and
gusts look to be calm and relatively tame. As for precipitation
chances PoPs are currently showing 10-20% chance and with there
being CAPE less than 1000 J/kg, these would likely just be pop-
up rain showers if anything were to develop. Tuesday looks very
similar to Monday, except the highs do warm up to the low 90s.
The winds remain calm and gusts tame. Overall Monday and Tuesday
look to be nice weather days.

Wednesday, looks to have a concern for the high temperatures
and potential fire weather. Currently they are in the range of
the high 90s and potential low 100s. Guidance is showing there
being a 20-45% chance of exceeding 100 degrees mainly for
locations, south of I-70 and east of KS Hwy 27. The NBM and
LREF's 90th percentiles are fairly close with 108 and 101
degrees respectfully. The lows for Wednesday are forecast to be
in the low to mid 60s.

There does look to be some Fire Weather concerns for Wednesday.
The winds look to be from the west then shifting to the
northwest. The gust are currently looking to be higher than 30
mph. Guidance is suggesting there being a 40-60% chance of
exceeding 30 mph. The LREF does however show lower percentages
in the 50s compared to the NBM. The gusts look to peak around
midday and are focused on Yuma County and spread out to the
bordering counties to the east and south. Moving to the Relative
Humidity (RH) values, there is a fairly significant change in
values. In the morning they are forecast to be in the 50-60%
then come midday they drop to the low teens. Guidance is showing
some uncertainly with exactly how long that period of low RH
values sticks around however. Moving to GFDI, there are values
there are a few brief moments where we have values in the 50-60
range but this is very localized. These conditions would lead to
high fire growth. There could be Critical Fire Weather, however
there is uncertainty with if all the ingredients for conditions
to meet criteria will overlap. Currently 20-35% that conditions
will meet Red Flag Criteria.

As we move further through the week, the ridge looks to de-
amplifies and the flow becomes more zonal. However during this
period there are some signs there could be some embedded
shortwave disturbances that could bring precipitation chances.
There is some signal a cold front could move through early
Thursday morning that would help keep temperature below 100
degrees. Highs for the extended part of the forecast look to be
in the low 90s and winds relative calm to breezy. As for
precipation chances PoPs currently are 10-30%. Friday has the
higher chances with 20-40%. Looking at SFC-CAPE there is roughly
500-900 J/kg and the SFC-500mb Shear in the 20 kt range. This
would lead to more rain showers than storms, but this is almost
7 days out and a fair amount can change.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 415 PM MDT Fri Jun 12 2026

VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period at both
terminals. S to SSW winds at 20 knots gusting to 30 knots this
afternoon will decrease to ~10-15 knots around sunset. A short,
sudden period of strong southerly winds assoc/w convective
outflow cannot be ruled-out at the Goodland terminal late this
evening/tonight, around 03-07Z, if organized convection [1]
develops in southwest KS and [2] produces a consolidated cold
pool. Otherwise, light winds will prevail overnight. Winds will
shift to the N-NNE and increase to 15-25 knots in assoc/w a cold
frontal passage a few hours after sunrise (~14-16Z) and remain
breezy through Saturday afternoon.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...Holdren
AVIATION...Vincent

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
240 PM MDT Fri Jun 12 2026

KSZ041-042-132045-
Greeley-Wichita-
240 PM MDT Fri Jun 12 2026 /340 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026/

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest Kansas.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

There is a very low chance, around 10%, for a severe thunderstorm
capable of producing quarter size hail and 60 mph wind gusts in
Greeley and Wichita counties between 6 PM and 10 PM MDT this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-NEZ079>081-132045-
Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne CO-Cheyenne KS-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-
Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Dundy-Hitchcock-
Red Willow-
240 PM MDT Fri Jun 12 2026 /340 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

Vincent