Heat in Idaho, March 1 to 31, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
440 PM MST Sat Feb 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain and very high elevation snow showers returning tonight
  through Monday.

- Above average temperatures through the weekend and into early
  next week.

- Next system arrives mid week with unsettled conditions for the
  remainder of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 127 PM MST Sat Feb 28 2026

Satellite imagery this afternoon reveals a complex low-pressure
system centered off the California coast. An associated
shortwave is currently pushing northeast through the Great
Basin and will stretch into an elongated deformation zone late
today and tonight across East Idaho. Light precipitation will
begin over the southern tier tonight, gradually spreading
northward through Sunday. Have high confidence in light
showers across most of the forecast area through Sunday, though
liquid totals will remain light for most of the region. Most
areas are expected to see less than 0.10" of liquid through
Sunday afternoon, but short-range high-resolution ensembles
(HREF/CAMS) suggest a 35-45% probability of a few locations in
the Southern Highlands, Sawtooths, and Big Hole Mountains
reaching 0.10-0.20". With southwesterly flow keeping snow levels
well above 7,000 ft, valley impacts will be limited to light
rain.

The primary upper low opens and progresses through northern
Nevada and Utah as an open trough Sunday night through Monday
night, with showers persisting across East Idaho. A gradual
cooling trend will allow snow levels to slowly drop through
Monday night, but latest model guidance suggests this cooling
may be coincident with the precipitation ending. Total snow
accumulations for the event are expected to range from 2-4" at
higher elevations. Low-end potential exists (roughly 20-35%
chance) for peak elevations to reach 4-6" if higher-end
precipitation probabilities manifest. Widespread impactful
accumulations are not anticipated.

A transitory ridge will bring a brief period of dry conditions
on Tuesday before the next Pacific Northwest system arrives on
Wednesday. This mid-week feature appears stronger than the
incoming wave, with higher moisture content and expected QPF.
Snow levels will remain well above valley floors. Following the
Wednesday system, the region remains in an unsettled
northwesterly flow pattern. A series of shortwaves will likely
keep periodic chances for light precipitation in the forecast
through the remainder of the week, with temperatures trending
back toward seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 431 PM MST Sat Feb 28 2026

Clouds will increase this evening into tomorrow morning. We
will likely see some virga or sprinkles arriving this evening,
with a better chance of showers after midnight and through
tomorrow morning. Have gone with -SHRA for BYI and PIH with
MVFR/high end IFR conditions by early to mid tomorrow morning.
Expect very light winds until tomorrow mid to late morning.
Winds will pick up some by tomorrow afternoon but winds should
be less than 10 kts for all sites still. Models are trying to
show a chance for vicinity thunderstorms for BYI for tomorrow
afternoon. Currently there is likely too much cloud cover for
convective activity. &&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...DMH
AVIATION...TW