A lingering stalled front remained in the forecast area 5/23, but a embedded shortwave in the general troughing pattern moved in during the afternoon and evening hours, leading to scattered convection to develop. The environment ahead of this shortwave was characterized by MLCAPE values over 2000 J/kg and effective shear near 30-35 kts.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS CAE wrote it up.
A lingering stalled front remained in the forecast area 5/23, but a embedded shortwave in the general troughing pattern moved in during the afternoon and evening hours, leading to scattered convection to develop. The environment ahead of this shortwave was characterized by MLCAPE values over 2000 J/kg and effective shear near 30-35 kts. Scattered strong to severe storms moved across the forecast area during the afternoon and evening hours, bringing damaging winds, and hail up to golf ball sized.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Columbia, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 23, 12:45 PM EST, 35 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 145 PM EDT Sat May 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Widespread showers and storms are developing in the CSRA and will continue to push into the Midlands this afternoon and evening. Aviation discussion updated for 18z TAF. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1. Widespread thunderstorms, a few of which may become strong to severe, and localized flash flooding through tonight. - 2. Shower and thunderstorm chances continue through the upcoming week. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1: Widespread thunderstorms, a few of which may become strong to severe, and localized flash flooding through tonight. Latest mesoanalysis indicates significant surface destabilization in the CSRA with sbCAPE exceeding 2500 J/kg. There remains a sharp gradient in instability associated with a wedge front in place in the northernmost portion of the forecast area leading to a notable temperature gradient as temperatures will generally be in the low 70s in the north/northwestern area to mid to upper 80s southeast. A shortwave moving through Georgia will continue to shift eastward which with plentiful instability leading to widespread storms continuing to increase in coverage through the rest of the afternoon. With PWATs around 1.8 to 1.9 inches, near the 99th percentile for this time of year and wet bulb zero heights around 13,000 feet, rainfall will be efficient. With areas north of I-20 receiving substantial rainfall yesterday, generally 2-4 inches based on CoCoRaHS and radar estimates, any training storms could cause localized flash flooding. Widespread severe weather is not expected as CAPE profiles are generally skinnier, with limited mid-level lapse rates. With increasing low level lapse rates, however, could see localized strong to potentially severe precip-loaded downdrafts develop. With forcing provided by the shortwave, convection will likely linger into tonight, although any severe threat will be limited. Key Message 2: Shower and thunderstorm chances continue through the upcoming week. Southwest flow persists over the area with a ridge offshore over the western Atlantic and deep troughing strengthening over the Gulf coast, ensuring a strong moisture source from the Gulf of America. PWATs will remain well above average with NAEFS mean indicating they will stay above the 90th percentile. There will several shortwaves pushing through the southwest flow with moderate destabilization expected each day. This will lead to an unsettled period with showers and thunderstorms likely developing each afternoon persisting into the evening. While the severe threat will be generally low, will continue to need to monitor a potential localized flash flooding threat, especially in the northwestern area which is most likely to be the location where shortwaves will push through the area and which has already received substantial rain so far this weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Mix of MVFR and VFR ceilings this afternoon with showers and storms possible. Rain chance diminish some tonight, but more restrictions are expected. As better mixing is occurring ceilings have generally lifted, but a mix of MVFR and VFR cigs remains across the TAF sites with bountiful low level moisture in place. A stalled front sits across the central Midlands so south of this boundary, light winds are more southeasterly, and north of this, winds a more easterly to northeasterly. Showers and storms are starting to fire across the region as well, though coverage is fairly scattered. Due to this, chances exist at each terminal through this evening to see restrictions from convection where gusty winds could be possible in any stronger storms. Majority of this activity is expected to begin diminishing between 23z-02z, but some showers and weaker storms may linger into the overnight period. A PROB30 group has been added after 00z to account for this. Guidance remains fairly aggressive in another round of cig restrictions that could move in as early as 23- 02z. Ceilings are expected to drop to MVFR during that time, before falling further to IFR late tonight into early Sunday morning. Patches of LIFR cigs will be possible as well. Restrictions are expected to linger through the end of the TAF period, but improvement is expected late Sunday morning into the afternoon toward MVFR. Another round of showers/storms will be possible just after this TAF period. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Abundant low level moisture will bring more rounds of morning restrictions from fog/stratus to finish the weekend and to start the next work week. Scattered afternoon showers and storms are possible each day into the middle of next week. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && DISCUSSION...96 AVIATION...DH
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
139 PM EDT Sat May 23 2026
GAZ063>065-077-231815-
Burke GA-Richmond GA-McDuffie GA-Columbia GA-
139 PM EDT Sat May 23 2026
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
McDuffie, southwestern Columbia, northwestern Burke and southwestern
Richmond Counties through 215 PM EDT...
At 139 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Wrens, or 13 miles east of Gibson, moving northeast at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 45 mph and nickel size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Harlem, Blythe, Dearing, Keysville, Autney, Leitner Lake Conference
Center, Arties Pond Public Fishing Area, Adamsville, Bath-Edie, and
Pea Patch Aerodrome.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3348 8240 3336 8210 3322 8223 3326 8225
3327 8229 3330 8231 3331 8234 3331 8239
3333 8242 3333 8243 3334 8245
TIME...MOT...LOC 1739Z 223DEG 13KT 3327 8237
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
MGThe Robins AFB radar (KJGX), 123 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:22 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A large pine tree fell on a parked vehicle near the Belle Meade CC north of Thomson.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Georgia in 2026Every state in 2026This day in weather historyWarnings in Georgia, May 2026
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1335665.