A stalled frontal boundary north of the region, as well as Gulf Coast and Atlantic Coast sea breezes, combined with usual early summer high instability and PWATs close to 2 inches to produce numerous showers and thunderstorms across the region, as well as isolated severe downbursts. Slow storm motion attributed to localized heavy rainfall and minor flooding.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JAX wrote it up.
A stalled frontal boundary north of the region, as well as Gulf Coast and Atlantic Coast sea breezes, combined with usual early summer high instability and PWATs close to 2 inches to produce numerous showers and thunderstorms across the region, as well as isolated severe downbursts. Slow storm motion attributed to localized heavy rainfall and minor flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jacksonville, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 23, 1:23 AM EST, 37 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
223 AM EDT Sat May 23 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
- High Risk at NE FL beaches through Memorial Day
- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms, some will be strong to
marginally severe. Daily afternoon thunderstorms expected
through next week.
- Daily Heat Index 95-105F through Weekend
- Historic Drought & Elevated Wildfire Danger Continues
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
- Hot and Humid; Heat Index Values in the upper 90s.
- High Risk for Rip Currents
- Scattered strong to marginally severe storms this afternoon.
- Localized flooding possible due to slow-moving thunderstorms.
Still quite a bit of convection developing early this morning across
the Suwannee Valley and interior areas of southeast GA. This
activity is attributed to an embedded shortwave lifting
northeastward out of the Gulf and colliding outflow boundaries at
the surface. Anticipate shower and isolated storms to dwindle in
coverage as it shifts northward, pushing beyond the Altamaha River
by sunrise.
Today will be more active in terms of thunderstorm coverage compared
to the last couple of days. One notable change will be an anomalous
plume of deep moisture over the area, sourced from the Caribbean.
Satellited derived PWAT is measuring close to 2.00" currently, which
considerably high for this time of year. Secondly, the upper ridge
that had kept shortwaves further west over the last two days will
flatten out, turning flow aloft more southwesterly and directing
another upstream shortwave directly over the forecast area this
afternoon.
Those aforementioned factors - moisture and an incoming shortwave -
will aid in more successful updrafts along both the Atlantic and
Gulf sea breezes as each one makes an inland push this afternoon.
Activity will likely ramp up along the Atlantic sea breeze after 3
pm as it interacts with the St Johns River breeze. The following
messy combination of outflows and sea breeze will continue to push
westward where an eventual merger with the Gulf breeze will occur
near or just east of the I-75 corridor.
There's a chance that a few areas may see multiple rounds of heavy
rain or training convection through this afternoon which will
enhance the potential of minor, short-duration flooding. HiRes
ensembles are honing in areas of heavy rain, mainly along the US-301
corridor and southeast GA where there's a reasonable chance (30-50%)
of 3"+ over a few hours this evening. For convective threats, the
primary concern will be water-loaded updrafts collapsing leading to
strong to downbursts, between 40-60 mph.
For this evening and tonight, anticipate outflows to keep convection
going through around 10 PM before showers fade completely in the
wake region of the departing shortwave. Once convection subsides,
conditions will be quiet overnight the airmass "worked over" by the
afternoon and evening convection.
Hot and humid conditions continue today before t'storms initiate,
with readings in the low 90s and heat index values into the upper 90s.
A similar mild and muggy night is expected again tonight with lows
in the low/mid 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
- Isolated Strong Storms Possible Inland Sunday Afternoon/Evening
- Hot and humid conditions
Ridging over the western Atlantic will continue south-southeasterly
flow across the area into early next week. On Sunday, juicy airmass
(PWATs 1.8-2.1 in.) will promote numerous showers and storms
developing along the inland moving sea breezes in the afternoon into
evening. The overall flow will allow for the sea breezes to converge
mainly between I-75 and HWY 301 corridors. Some shortwaves aloft
move across the area in the upper SW flow and may enhance
convection. Strong storms will be possible mainly along boundary
collisions. Potential hazards will be wind gusts 40-50 mph, heavy
downpours, localized flooding and frequent lightning. Storms will
linger into the evening before dissipating. Slightly drier air
gradually filters into NE FL on Monday reducing convective coverage
to scattered.
Above seasonable temperatures continue with daytime highs in the
upper 80s to low 90s. Peak heat indices will be in the mid 90s to
around 100. Overnight lows will drop down into the lower 70s for
inland areas and in the mid 70s for areas near the shoreline.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
- Hot temperatures Tuesday
- Chances of showers and storms each day
The high pressure ridge axis across the southeast states and the
western Atlantic will gradually shift southeastward through the week
next week. Lingering drier air will lead to scattered showers and
storms along the sea breezes on Tuesday. Coverage increases mid to
late week with the return of moisture and a decrease in subsidence.
Above seasonable temps on Tuesday gradually decrease to below
seasonable by the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Ongoing scattered, nocturnal thunderstorms will remain well inland
and aren't expected to impact any TAF terminals through the rest of
the early morning hours. Light southeasterly winds will limit fog
development and VFR conditions are expected through at least 18z.
A more active thunderstorm day is expected with potential convection
impacts to KJAX/KVQQ/KCRG during the middle and late afternoon hours
(18z-23z). Thunderstorms today will be capable of significant
downpours, gusty outflows and low visibility, possibly resulting in
temporary IFR to LIFR restrictions. Thunderstorms are possible at
KGNV but will occur late in the day as the Atlantic and Gulf sea
breezes merge between 22z-01z. Some convective-remanant stratiform
rain may shift eastward back toward the Atlantic coast this evening,
though minimal if any visibility impacts are likely with that
activity.
Outside of convective winds, easterly winds accompanying the sea
breeze will develop this afternoon with gusts up around 15-20 knots.
&&
.MARINE...
South to southeast winds continue across the local waters through
mid week next week with the Bermuda ridge axis lingering north of
the local area. Late afternoon and evening nocturnal wind surges are
expected daily with periodic Small Craft Exercise Caution
conditions. There will be a higher chance of showers and isolated
thunderstorm later this evening and through the overnight hours
tonight into Sunday morning.
Rip Currents:
As the sea breeze develops, risk for rip currents will edge toward
High Risk levels, especially for northeast FL beaches. Surf around 3-
4.5 feet will continue. Due to light onshore winds along the
southeast GA beaches, risk will stay at Moderate levels today. The
risk today and through Memorial Day will be inherently higher due
the holiday increase in beach recreation. Similar expectations are
expected on Sunday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Increase in showers and storms this weekend will limit daytime
dispersions to fair to good. The sea breezes will shift inland each
afternoon developing numerous showers and thunderstorms that
continue into the evening hours. In the south-southeast flow, the
sea breeze merger will likely be between the I-75 and US 301
corridors in the late afternoon into early evening. Isolated strong
to severe thunderstorms will be possible later this afternoon into
evening with the best chances across southeast Georgia. Potential
hazards will be damaging wind gusts, heavy downpours, localized
flooding, and frequent lightning. Slightly drier air filters in for
early next week lowering storm coverage to scattered. Elevated
mixing heights early next week will lead to good to potentially high
dispersions.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog is not expected
into this weekend. Erratic winds during periods of thunderstorms.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 90 68 88 69 / 80 60 90 50
SSI 87 76 87 77 / 30 50 50 30
JAX 92 74 90 75 / 60 50 60 30
SGJ 91 75 90 77 / 30 30 50 20
GNV 93 72 91 73 / 80 60 80 50
OCF 93 73 90 74 / 60 60 80 50
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late tonight for FLZ124-125-138-
233-333.
GA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&The Moody AFB radar (KVAX), 73 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 06:59 UTC.
3 thunderstorm wind, 1 heavy rain. Local standard time, as filed.
Personal weather station CharleePWS - KGAWAYCR35 measured a storm total rainfall of 4.03 inches. Between 3 AM and 530 AM about 3.88 inches fell.
Tree was reported down in the vicinity of Knox Rd. Time was estimated by radar.
Coffee County Fire Department reported that strong winds lifted a metal shed that resulted in downed power lines near McKinnon Rd and Sleepy Hallow Rd. Time was estimated by radar.
Tree down on power lines on Tommy Harrell Rd. Time estimated via radar.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Georgia in 2026Every state in 2026This day in weather historyWarnings in Georgia, May 2026
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1331325, 1331324, 1331326, 1331327.