Funnel Cloud in Florida, May 21, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
156 PM EDT Thu May 21 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures are expected through the week.

- Thunderstorms are expected to develop each day, mainly in the
  afternoon into the evening hours.

- Severe to extreme drought conditions continue for most areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 155 PM EDT Thu May 21 2026

The forecast remains unchanged for the next several days as
surface high pressure continues to ridge west into the southeast
U.S. with the low level east to southeast flow across the region.
Upper level ridging does setup over the area keeping the rather
hot temperatures in place and this combined with enough moisture,
precipitable water values between 1.4 and 1.7 inches, will lead
to scattered mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms each day.
The flow will remain light enough through Sunday, sea breeze
regime 6, to allow the west coast sea breeze to move inland with
highest rain chances around and just east of the I-75 corridor.
Early next week the eat to southeast flow will increase, sea
breeze regime 7, and this will favor coastal areas for the highest
rain chances. Overall it looks like the early summerlike pattern
will continue for the next several days with some much needed
rainfall across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 155 PM EDT Thu May 21 2026

MVFR/local IFR conditions will be possible later this afternoon
and evening in scattered showers and thunderstorms. Otherwise, VFR
conditions should prevail through Friday morning. The east to
southeast winds at 6 to 10 knots early this afternoon are expected
to shift to westerly at TPA, PIE, and SRQ as the bay/sea breezes
develop and move inland. The sea breeze could also reach the
southwest Florida TAF sites of PGD, FMY, and RSW later this
afternoon, but convection could overwhelm this and cause winds to
be rather variable. The overall east to southeast flow will
return later this evening at 3 to 6 knots, then increase to 6 to
10 knots again Friday morning. Gusty and erratic winds will be
possible near showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 155 PM EDT Thu May 21 2026

The east to southeast flow will continue through the weekend then
increase some early next week. Speeds could reach cautionary
levels during the nighttime hours early next week, otherwise they
are are expected to remain less than 15 knots except in the
vicinity of any showers and thunderstorms that could move offshore
during the late afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 155 PM EDT Thu May 21 2026

Relative humidity values will remain above critical levels for the
next several days with sustained winds less than 15 mph. Showers and
thunderstorms will be possible each day mainly during the afternoon
and evening hours which could cause gusty and erratic winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  92  78  92 /  30  20  20  40
FMY  74  93  76  93 /  40  40  20  60
GIF  74  93  75  93 /  30  20  10  40
SRQ  75  92  76  92 /  20  20  20  30
BKV  73  94  74  94 /  20  30  30  40
SPG  77  93  78  94 /  20  20  20  30

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 6

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
    https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

Close

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL
259 PM EDT Thu May 21 2026

FLZ239-211930-
Inland Levy FL-
259 PM EDT Thu May 21 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL LEVY COUNTY
THROUGH 330 PM EDT...

At 259 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Chiefland. This thunderstorm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Chiefland, Bronson, Andrews, Manattee Road, and Fanning Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2958 8285 2958 8276 2956 8275 2956 8266
      2944 8264 2940 8282 2958 8295 2959 8294
      2959 8286
TIME...MOT...LOC 1859Z 160DEG 1KT 2952 8278

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

TBW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL
520 PM EDT Thu May 21 2026

FLZ162-165-262-265-212200-
Coastal Charlotte FL-Inland Charlotte FL-Inland Lee FL-
Coastal Lee FL-
520 PM EDT Thu May 21 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL CHARLOTTE AND LEE
COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM EDT...

At 519 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
San Carlos Park, or 9 miles south of Fort Myers, moving northwest at
30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Cape Coral, Fort Myers, Bonita Springs, East Dunbar, Matlacha,
Palmona Park, Southwest Florida Airport, Harlem Heights, Lochmoor
Waterway Estates, Iona, Cypress Lake, Pine Island Center, San Carlos
Park, McGregor, Pine Manor, Lovers Key State Park, Matlacha
Isles-Matlacha Shores, Buckingham, St. James City, and Villas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2633 8182 2633 8185 2634 8185 2644 8223
      2645 8224 2691 8198 2653 8156 2650 8156
      2642 8162 2642 8166 2638 8166 2631 8170
      2631 8182
TIME...MOT...LOC 2119Z 113DEG 28KT 2649 8185

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

TBW