What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jacksonville, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 14, 11:05 AM EST, 5 hours 31 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
- Hot and Humid Today thru Monday - Peak Heat Index Values: 104-108
- Afternoon & Evening TStorms Area-Wide Through Most of the week. Scattered to Numerous Thunderstorms this afternoon (2 PM 9 PM). Strong Storms with Gusty Winds, Frequent Lightning Strikes & Heavy Downpours Possible Along the I-95 Corridor
Area forecast discussion, Jun 14, 11:05 AM EST, 5 hours 31 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1205 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
- Hot and Humid Today thru Monday - Peak Heat Index Values: 104-108
- Afternoon & Evening TStorms Area-Wide Through Most of the
week. Scattered to Numerous Thunderstorms this afternoon (2 PM
9 PM). Strong Storms with Gusty Winds, Frequent Lightning
Strikes & Heavy Downpours Possible Along the I-95 Corridor
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:
- Another Hot Day with Heat Index Peaking Around 102-107 Degrees
- Scattered to Numerous Afternoon Thunderstorms, A Few Strong
to Isolated Severe Storms Possible, with locally heavy rainfall
- Lower confidence in late night strong to severe storms for inland
Southeast Georgia
Not much change to ongoing forecast as a moist West to Northwest
steering flow along with PWATs around 2 inches will support
scattered to numerous storms area-wide this afternoon and evening.
These higher PWATs and generally slow storm motion from West to East
around 10-15 mph or less will support localized flooding threat with
isolated 2-4 inch amounts, highest threat in urban areas today.
Prior to the onset of convection expect temps to reach into the
lower to middle 90s and combine with dew point temps into the
mid/upper 70s to once again produce peak heat indices of 104F to
108F early this afternoon, remaining just below Advisory criteria.
Convergence in the W-SW flow along the NE Gulf Coast has already
triggered early rounds of convection along the I-75 corridor of
inland NE FL which will continue to progress to the East and
interact with the East Coast sea breeze front trapped along the I-95
corridor and this is where the best chances for isolated Severe
Storms will be with downburst winds of 60 mph possible along the
Atlantic Coastal counties of NE FL/SE GA. Further inland, isolated
strong storms with gusty winds of 40-55 mph still expected, and any
cell mergers and/or outflow boundary collisions still have the
potential to trigger an isolated severe storm as well. Mid level
lapse rates are not as steep as on Saturday afternoon as 500mb temps
have warmed slightly, closer to -6C.
Convection will start to fade around sunset and push into the
Atlantic Coastal waters, with most areas developing fair skies by
midnight with humid overnight lows in the 70s inland and near 80F
along the Atlantic Coast.
There are a few higher res models which are suggesting that a line
of pre-frontal showers and storms may push into inland SE GA during
the overnight hours, which would impact areas to the NW of Waycross
with isolated strong to severe storms with gusty winds possible
after midnight. There is lower confidence in this scenario at this
time, but will need to closely monitor for another potential round
of convection impacting inland SE GA late tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:
- Heat index values approach Advisory levels Monday afternoon
- Scattered to numerous afternoon and evening thunderstorms each day
- Locally heavy rainfall, along with the potential for strong to
severe thunderstorms both Monday and Tuesday afternoons
Surface high pressure ridge will stretch across southern FL Monday,
as a cold front sinks south toward the region. The combination of
ample moisture, diurnal heating, Gulf sea breeze and frontal
convergence will lead to above average chances of afternoon and
evening convection. The flow from the west is expected to be strong
enough to keep the east coast sea breeze pinned to the coast. This
will result in a progressive flow of convection across the forecast
area from west to east, and allow the higher temperatures to reach
all the way to the beaches. The potential for strong to severe
storms will once again be possible.
On Tuesday, the front will sink south into the forecast area. In
addition to the factors still in place from Monday, the frontal
convergence will be greater. This will result in greater coverage of
convection Tuesday afternoon and evening. Once again, there will be
enough flow from the west to keep the east coast sea breeze from
getting past the beach, allowing beach communities to heat up ahead
of the storms.
With loss of diurnal heating, convection should end by midnight
Monday night, but with the front in the forecast area, activity
will likely continue through the night Tuesday night.
Temperatures will continue to be above average this period.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:
- Daily scattered to numerous afternoon and evening thunderstorms
- Locally heavy rainfall and potential for strong to severe storms
The cold front will remain stalled over the region Wednesday through
Friday, as it slowly dissipates. This boundary will continue to aid
in daily convection, with greatest chances Wednesday. As the
boundary weakens Thursday into Friday, storm chances will decrease.
The southwest flow will continue to be strong enough to keep the
east coast sea breeze from making much progress. Temperatures will
trend below average Wednesday due to convective coverage, with
readings trending above Thursday and Friday, as coverage is not as
great.
Another front will sink south into the area and stall over the
weekend. Above average chances for storms forecast due to the
frontal convergence. Temperatures will be near seasonal levels over
the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Convection already ongoing near GNV and will push into the rest of
the TAF sites in the 18-22Z time frame and have added in VCTS with
TEMPO groups for gusty winds and MVFR CIGS/VSBYS in TSRA activity at
the remaining terminals. As convection develops, a few of the
stronger storms may produce gusty winds to 30 knots and potential
for IFR VSBYS which may need to be added in forecast updates through
the afternoon hours. Convection should fade around sunset and expect
a return to mainly VFR conds and convective mid/high debris clouds
after 02-03Z. SW winds remain elevated tonight and should prevent
much fog formation except for MVFR VSBYS at VQQ. Chances for MVFR
CIGS in the 09-12Z time frame too low to include at this time. SW
winds increase once again by 14-15Z time frame on Monday with VCSH
and isolated showers by the end of the upcoming TAF period.
&&
.MARINE...
The region will be between high pressure to the south southeast, and
a frontal zone stalling just north of the local waters through most
of the upcoming week. This will lead to a predominant southwest flow
which will become breezy at times, with periods of Small Craft
Exercise Caution conditions, mainly over the offshore waters. The
offshore flow will continue to push strong storms with gusty winds
and frequent lightning into the coastal waters through the period.
Rip Currents:
Generally a low risk of rip currents early this week as surf remains
only in the 1-2 ft range in the predominant offshore flow.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
- Patchy To Areas Of High Dispersions This Week
A series of frontal boundaries will keep chances for daily rounds of
showers and thunderstorms above average through the week, and into
next weekend. Temperatures will be largely above average this week.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog is expected
Tonight. Daily showers and thunderstorms are expected, mainly during
the afternoon and evening hours, with the potential for strong
storms capable of producing gusty winds, frequent lightning, and
locally heavy rainfall each day.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 74 93 73 84 / 30 80 60 70
SSI 77 95 76 89 / 30 80 60 70
JAX 75 96 76 92 / 40 70 60 70
SGJ 76 95 77 93 / 40 70 40 60
GNV 75 93 76 91 / 20 40 20 50
OCF 76 91 78 91 / 20 30 10 20
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jun 14, 3:21 PM EST, 1 hour 15 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
421 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026
GAZ154-165-166-142100-
Inland Camden GA-Coastal Glynn GA-Coastal Camden GA-
421 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL CAMDEN AND SOUTHEASTERN
GLYNN COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM EDT...
At 421 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Woodbine, moving east at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts around 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Woodbine, Jekyll Island, High Point, Harrietts Bluff, Dover Bluff,
and Colesburg.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3097 8139 3087 8141 3086 8176 3101 8181
3109 8138
TIME...MOT...LOC 2021Z 264DEG 18KT 3095 8172
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
KBSpecial weather statement, Jun 14, 3:44 PM EST, 52 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
444 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026
FLZ021-120-220-322-422-522-GAZ162-142130-
Southeastern Columbia FL-Western Hamilton FL-Eastern Hamilton FL-
Southwestern Columbia FL-Northern Columbia FL-Suwannee FL-Echols GA-
444 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL COLUMBIA...NORTHEASTERN
SUWANNEE...HAMILTON AND SOUTHWESTERN ECHOLS COUNTIES THROUGH 530 PM
EDT...
At 443 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Jennings to 6 miles south of Wellborn. Movement
was east at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 to 50 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Lake City, Live Oak, Jasper, Jennings, White Springs, Suwannee
Springs, Winfield, Suwannee Valley, Belmont, and Crossroads.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3074 8288 3019 8251 3007 8287 3059 8319
TIME...MOT...LOC 2043Z 253DEG 20KT 3058 8312 3014 8282
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
KBSpecial weather statement, Jun 14, 3:53 PM EST, 43 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
453 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026
GAZ149-162-163-250-142130-
Atkinson GA-Clinch GA-Echols GA-Northern Ware GA-
453 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN ECHOLS...SOUTHERN
ATKINSON...WEST CENTRAL WARE AND NORTHWESTERN CLINCH COUNTIES THROUGH
530 PM EDT...
At 453 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles southeast of Willacoochee to near Moody
Air Force Base. Movement was east at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts around 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Homerville, Pearson, Willacoochee, Du Pont, Mayday, Cogdell,
Millwood, and Axson.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3080 8313 3081 8310 3083 8310 3083 8309
3085 8309 3085 8301 3086 8301 3087 8297
3118 8297 3119 8305 3123 8305 3128 8303
3134 8307 3137 8311 3126 8256 3071 8294
3079 8313
TIME...MOT...LOC 2053Z 278DEG 26KT 3127 8296 3094 8327
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
KBSpecial weather statement, Jun 14, 4:11 PM EST, 25 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
511 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026
FLZ023-GAZ364-142145-
Baker FL-Western Charlton GA-
511 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL BAKER AND
SOUTHEASTERN CHARLTON COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM EDT...
At 511 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Taylor, or 24 miles southwest of Hilliard, moving east at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts around 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Taylor and St. George.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3054 8202 3047 8202 3046 8203 3045 8203
3044 8204 3042 8203 3041 8204 3039 8204
3039 8233 3051 8234 3060 8202 3056 8201
TIME...MOT...LOC 2111Z 258DEG 19KT 3046 8223
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
KBSpecial weather statement, Jun 14, 4:17 PM EST, 19 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
517 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026
GAZ133-142145-
Jeff Davis GA-
517 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL JEFF DAVIS COUNTY
THROUGH 545 PM EDT...
At 517 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles north of Snipesville, or 11 miles west of Hazlehurst, moving
east at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts around 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Hazlehurst.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3191 8252 3175 8252 3175 8255 3183 8281
3184 8278 3185 8279 3185 8278 3186 8277
3186 8276 3188 8274 3189 8271 3190 8270
3190 8269 3191 8268 3192 8268
TIME...MOT...LOC 2117Z 286DEG 20KT 3186 8279
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
KBSpecial weather statement, Jun 14, 4:30 PM EST, 6 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
530 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026
FLZ120-220-GAZ149-151-152-162-163-250-350-364-142200-
Western Hamilton FL-Eastern Hamilton FL-Pierce GA-Atkinson GA-
Clinch GA-Western Charlton GA-Brantley GA-Echols GA-Northern Ware GA-
Southern Ware GA-
530 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL HAMILTON...
SOUTHWESTERN PIERCE...ECHOLS...SOUTHEASTERN ATKINSON...WEST CENTRAL
BRANTLEY...NORTHERN WARE...CLINCH AND NORTHWESTERN CHARLTON COUNTIES
THROUGH 600 PM EDT...
At 530 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles northeast of Cogdell to Homerville to 7
miles west of Mayday. Movement was east at 40 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts around 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Waycross, Blackshear, Homerville, Argyle, Statenville, Du Pont, Boggy
Bay, Mayday, Pebble Hill, and Jamestown.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3063 8314 3080 8313 3081 8310 3083 8310
3083 8309 3085 8309 3085 8301 3086 8301
3087 8297 3112 8297 3137 8274 3133 8219
3100 8235 3061 8294 3063 8331
TIME...MOT...LOC 2130Z 271DEG 36KT 3124 8259 3101 8274 3081 8313
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
KB