Dust Storm and High Wind in Colorado, January 15, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
503 PM MST Thu Jan 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions are expected for the area
  this afternoon.

- A cold front moves in this evening, bringing some gusty winds
  and a chance for some localized blowing dust.

- Critical fire weather conditions, high winds, and the
  potential for dust plumes developing are expected Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 501 PM MST Thu Jan 15 2026

Red Flag Warning for today has been allowed to expire on time as
wind have weakened with the nocturnal inversion. For this
evening, concerns continue to grow of strong to damaging winds
with or just behind the cold front. Have increased forecasted
winds as a result of newest data coming stronger with the winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 236 PM MST Thu Jan 15 2026

A broad upper trough currently extends from the Dakotas to New
England and southward to the Gulf. There is an area of low pressure
over Manitoba that is expected to dive southward into the Great
Lakes region tomorrow.

Warm and dry conditions continue this afternoon across the region.
Temperatures early this afternoon are already well into the mid-60s
across portions of northwest Kansas. Expect highs to reach the mid
to upper 60s for most areas through the afternoon. Northwest winds
will remain breezy, up to around 25-30mph for northeastern Colorado,
and 15-25mph for Kansas/Nebraska. A Red Flag Warning remains in
effect this afternoon for northeastern Colorado, in addition to
Sherman and Wallace counties.

This evening, the low pressure area will push south over Iowa and
Minnesota, with an attendant cold front sliding south across
Nebraska. The front should arrive after sunset, increasing winds
from the northwest. While not the main period of strong winds
expected over the next 24-36 hours, there could be a few stronger
wind gusts as the front comes through. A High Wind Warning will go
into effect later this evening, continuing through Friday afternoon.
Within the broad trough, a shortwave trough is expected to dive
southeast from the Black Hills this evening into central and eastern
Nebraska by tomorrow morning. There is a very small (10%) chance of
a few isolated sprinkles or light showers that may clip a portion of
the region. The chances of this occurring are low and with the dry
air over the region, if anything develops, it may be more of a virga
situation. However, if this does occur, we could get some localized
stronger winds around the shower area. As the front comes through,
there is a possibility of it kicking up some dust off of the burn
scar in Yuma County, which could cause some visibility reductions
tonight.

A fairly tight pressure gradient remains in place for Friday over
the Tri-State area. Northwest winds will have the potential of
gusting as high as 65mph. A few localized 70mph gusts may be
possible. Minimum relative humidity values will fall into the teens
to low 20s for most of the area. Conditions are extremely dry, so
combined with low RH and strong winds, critical fire weather
conditions are likely for Friday. A Red Flag Warning has been issued
for most of the CWA as a result. For additional information, please
refer to the fire weather discussion. A High Wind Warning has also
been issued for the entire CWA for Friday.

The other concern for Friday will be the potential for blowing dust.
0-2km lapse rates of 9.0+ C/km and 2.0-2.5km lapse rates of 6C/km or
less are expected Friday afternoon across much of the area. SFC
winds of 35-45mph are expected with 0.5-1km winds around 40-60mph
also expected. We are not expecting this to be a true "wall of dirt"
situation as the FROPA will occur this evening/tonight while
environmental conditions are not as favorable, and there won't be a
mechanism for the dust to collect and get pushed around like a
typical wall of dirt. However, there is growing concern for the
possibility of several plumes of dust developing through the day,
causing issues. Any areas with recent burn scars will be of
particular concern for plumes of blowing dust.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 236 PM MST Thu Jan 15 2026

Saturday brings a challenge as a second embedded shortwave drops
into the eastern fringes of the Tri-State area around sunrise.
Depending on the exact track, this may result in slightly lower
winds over the eastern part of the CWA as the pressure gradient may
not be quite as strong. This could impact potential fire weather
considerations in the afternoon. As the forecast stands right now,
sustained northwest winds of 20-35mph are expected with some gusts
potentially in the 45-50mph range, particularly for northeastern
Colorado. Minimum relative humidity values are forecasted to fall
into the low to mid-teens for portions of northeastern Colorado and
extending into extreme southwestern Nebraska and counties along the
Kansas/Colorado border. For the time being, no headlines will be
issued; however, this situation will be something to continue to
monitor, especially as we get a better idea of where the shortwave
will track. Some blowing dust may be possible as well.

Sunday into the extended forecast: The broad trough will shift to
the east with an amplified ridge over the Aleutian Islands. Expect
warmer air to move into the region, with highs rebounding back into
the 50s on Sunday afternoon. We'll see a short-lived cool down on
Monday with temperatures returning to near or slightly below
seasonal (mid-30s to low 40s for highs). There is a small
chance of a flurry or snow shower on Monday. Heading into mid-
week, temperatures will fluxuate between the 40s and 50s for
highs and the teens and 20s for lows.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 350 PM MST Thu Jan 15 2026

VFR conditions prevail this evening at the terminals. A cold
front will push into the region after 03Z, resulting in an
increase in winds and some LLWS. Gusty winds out of the north-
northeast continue overnight, shifting to the northwest around
sunrise. There will be potential for localized plumes of blowing
dust, but confidence in the development of a plume causing
impacts to an individual terminal is low, so the mention was
omitted from prevailing conditions. If blowing dust does develop
in the vicinity of a terminal, it may cause some visibility
reductions to below one mile.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 631 AM MST Thu Jan 15 2026

Thursday: A Red Flag Warning remains in effect this afternoon for
northeastern Colorado, in addition to Sherman and Wallace counties.
In addition to the breezy conditions, minimum relative humidity
values will fall into the mid-teens within the warned counties this
afternoon. The combination of dry fuels, gusty winds, and low
relative humidity values will result in critical fire weather
conditions in these areas. There is less certainty in critical fire
weather conditions being met multiple hours the further east you go.

Friday: Northwest winds will have the potential of gusting as high
as 65mph. A few localized 70mph gusts may be possible. Minimum
relative humidity values will fall into the teens to low 20s for
most of the area. GFDI values are also expected to be high across
much of the area. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for all but
Norton and Graham counties in Kansas. Confidence was not as high in
conditions truly reaching critical levels for an extended period of
time in these locations. Despite remaining in the watch, at
least elevated fire weather conditions are expected. Regardless
of location, with the potential for strong winds and dry
conditions, any fires that are able to ignite will show rapid
growth. Plumes of blowing dust will also be a concern.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ Friday for
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
     Red Flag Warning from 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ to 6 PM MST /7 PM
     CST/ Friday for KSZ001>003-013>015-027>029-041-042.
     Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for KSZ004-016.
CO...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST Friday for COZ090>092.
     Red Flag Warning from 8 AM to 6 PM MST Friday for COZ252>254.
NE...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ Friday for
     NEZ079>081.
     Red Flag Warning from 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ to 6 PM MST /7 PM
     CST/ Friday for NEZ079>081.

&&

UPDATE...Trigg
SHORT TERM...AW
LONG TERM...AW
AVIATION...AW
FIRE WEATHER...AW

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