Avalanche and Heavy Snow in California, January 3 to 5, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
230 PM PST Fri Jan 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* A stronger storm will bring periods of heavier Sierra snow and
  valley rain late tonight through early Monday, with isolated
  flooding concerns possible in northeast CA.

* Additional storms could bring more snow chances to the Sierra,
  with rain and snow in lower elevations by mid-late next week.

* A drier weather pattern is projected to return by the end of
  next week and could continue through mid-January

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today's short lived break between storms will be coming to an end
by tonight with stormy conditions prevailing through the remainder
of the holiday weekend and even potentially into early next week.
Residual effects from yesterday's precip include persistent
fog/low stratus across west central NV which has recently
dispersed, but continues around Mono Lake and southern Mono
County and appears poised to linger through this evening.

The first round of precip is on track to reach northeast CA and
the Tahoe basin around midnight tonight, and quickly advance to
Mono County overnight. This is expected to be the warmer portion
of this whole storm event with snow levels initially between
6500-7000 feet for northeast CA and 7000-8000 feet for the eastern
Sierra/Tahoe areas. The latest high resolution guidance breaks
this precip to a more showery regime by Saturday afternoon, although
some heavier convective bands are showing up especially from
Plumas County southward, and there's an added risk (10-15% chance)
of isolated lightning near the Sierra crest Saturday afternoon-
evening. Snow levels could be highly variable, with little change
or even rising in many areas during Saturday afternoon, but
dropping by 500-1000 feet in areas where heavier bands persist.
Also during this initial precip band, the risk for quick rises in
rivers and streams and isolated poor drainage area flooding
remains for parts of northeast CA where rain falls on snow,
although the latest forecasts for the Susan and Feather rivers
brings peak rises to monitor/action stages but below flood stage
(Saturday afternoon-early Sunday AM for Susanville and by midday
Monday for Portola). This is assuming a sufficient drop in snow
levels for the next round of precip coming in from late Saturday
evening through Sunday afternoon. We will still retain the Areal
Flood Watch for now due to the lingering uncertainty of the
rain/snow extent for the later portion of the weekend.

Also for winds, the Saturday afternoon-evening time frame could
see some partial mixing of stronger ridge top gusts down to lower
elevations--with a few sites in far western NV possibly seeing
short-duration advisory-level gusts near 50 mph, but confidence
is lower for a more widespread wind event in lower elevations. We
will retain the Lake Wind Advisory for Pyramid Lake for much of
the weekend as gusts up to 40 mph remain a good bet.

As mentioned above, the largest and longest duration moisture
push appears to be targeting the Saturday evening through the
Sunday afternoon time frame, and the latest guidance is phasing
in some colder air with this round of precip. Snow levels edge
downward to near 5000-5500 feet for northeast CA, lake level for
Tahoe and near 6500 feet for Mono County by daybreak Sunday, and
eventually push below 5000 feet by early Monday morning.
Widespread travel impacts will affect most routes for northeast CA
and the eastern Sierra, while the best potential for precip
spilling into western NV comes during the day Sunday. One more
final push of moisture could then arrive by late Sunday night/early
Monday morning but higher resolution guidance is favoring a drier
outcome with the upper low pulling farther offshore from the CA
coast and cutting off most of the Pacific moisture feed from the
Sierra. We'll be keeping an eye on this portion of the event as
any wetter scenario could produce widespread travel issues as the
post-holiday peak commute returns.

After Monday morning, lighter snow showers could linger mainly in
the mountains through Tuesday, then medium range guidance
continues to project a quicker moving and colder storm around
Wednesday-Thursday which could bring light snowfall to lower
elevations. Then finally, a drier pattern is looking more likely
by the end of next week which could persist into mid-January. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

* For the Sierra terminals, winds will increase over ridges
  tonight with increased turbulence and areas of LLWS. Surface
  conditions will worsen overnight and Saturday between 08Z
  through 20Z with a rain-snow mix bringing MVFR-IFR conditions.
  After 20Z the conditions will be variable, depending on the
  location of convective snow bands, with more widespread IFR/LIFR
  likely for most of Saturday night-Sunday.

* For western NV, winds will begin to increase tonight and peak on
  Saturday, with gusts to 30 kt and possibly briefly higher at
  times Saturday afternoon-evening between 20Z and 03Z. Mountain
  wave turbulence and periods of LLWS is likely through much of
  the weekend. The most likely periods for MVFR conditions and/or
  terrain obscuration due to rain showers will be Saturday morning
  between 10-16Z and also during the day Sunday. MJD

&&

.AVALANCHE...

A winter storm will bring periods of significant snow and windy
conditions to all avalanche center terrain from early Saturday
morning through Monday morning.

* Snow Levels: Starting around 7000-7500 ft, possibly up to 8000
  feet for Mono County and fluctuating through the day Saturday,
  then dropping below 7000 feet with only snow expected for all
  avalanche terrain from Saturday night onward.

* Snow/SWE amounts: 1-3 feet with locally up to 4 feet for Mono
  County. SWE totals between 1.5" and 3", with a few sites receiving
  up to 4".

* Snow-Liquid Ratios (SLR): Higher density 7-10:1 Saturday, then
  becoming less dense with SLR's increasing to 10:1 and possibly
  up to 13:1, with colder air and lower snow levels from early
  Sunday morning through Monday.

* Snowfall Rates: Steady at 0.5-1"/hour with periodic bursts of up
  to 2-3"/hour through the weekend, particularly across higher
  peaks.

* Ridge top winds: Gusts 70-90 mph, with stronger gusts up to 100
  mph at times from Saturday through Sunday morning.

* Lightning: 10-15% chance Saturday and 5-10% chance Sunday.

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM PST Monday
     NVZ002.

     Lake Wind Advisory from 4 AM Saturday to 1 PM PST Sunday NVZ004.

CA...Flood Watch from Saturday morning through Monday afternoon
     CAZ071.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Saturday to 10 AM PST Monday
     CAZ071.

     Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM PST Monday
     CAZ072-073.

&&