Hail in Alabama, January 3, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
544 AM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 538 AM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

  - Strong winds will create hazardous marine conditions for small
    craft this evening into Saturday.

  - Life threatening rip currents are likely at area beaches tonight
    through Saturday.

  - There is a Marginal risk for an isolated severe storm along
    and east of the I-65 corridor late Saturday morning into
    Saturday afternoon. Localized damaging wind gusts and large
    hail are the primary threats.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1204 AM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

Warm air advection showers will continue to increase in coverage
overnight as a shortwave approaches from the west. However,
coverage will remain isolated to scattered. Rainfall amounts will
remain light to the lack of significant deep layer moisture.
The shortwave and associated cold front will enter the area around
daybreak and progress eastward through the day. The highest
coverage is expected to remain east of I-65 through the day. There
remain a very marginal severe threat during the afternoon as
MLCAPES increase to around 1500 J/Kg and deep layer shear values
increase. However, the lack of deep layer moisture and weak
surface convergence will inhibit overall convective development.
However, if a stronger storms is able to develop, damaging wind
gusts and large hail would be the main threats.

The front will clear the area by late this afternoon into
this evening, bringing an end to the precip chances and the
return to some cooler and drier air. Upper level ridging will once
again build across the region for early to mid next week with
temperatures climbing to well above normal levels. /13

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 538 AM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

IFR conditions will spread east across the forecast area into this
afternoon as an upper system passes. Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots
this morning will shift to northwesterly by late this afternoon as
a surface low passes.
/16

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1204 AM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

Southwesterly winds will strengthen ahead of an approaching cold
front. The front will move through the coastal waters late this
afternoon into tonight with a moderate offshore flow developing in
the wake of the front. The offshore flow diminishes on Sunday and
transitions to a light onshore flow early next week as high pressure
quickly moves east of the region. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      74  49  67  45 /  50   0   0   0
Pensacola   73  53  67  50 /  80  10   0   0
Destin      71  53  65  51 /  80  20   0   0
Evergreen   73  46  66  41 /  60  10   0   0
Waynesboro  70  44  63  41 /  30   0   0   0
Camden      68  44  62  41 /  50   0   0   0
Crestview   74  48  67  42 /  80  10   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for
     GMZ630>632.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ650-655-
     670-675.

&&