A series of storms impacted the Bay Area and Central Coast from January 1st to the 5th, causing numerous flooding impacts and scattered thunderstorms. A low pressure system on the 1st was followed by a strong cold front and associated atmospheric river late on the 2nd into the morning of the 3rd.
Every event with a place to put it; 9 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MTR wrote it up.
A series of storms impacted the Bay Area and Central Coast from January 1st to the 5th, causing numerous flooding impacts and scattered thunderstorms. A low pressure system on the 1st was followed by a strong cold front and associated atmospheric river late on the 2nd into the morning of the 3rd. A second cold front followed on the 4th. A tornado warning was issued on January 5 for the Pacific coast near the border between San Mateo and Santa Cruz counties due to a radar indicated rotation signature. Around 3,400 customers in San Francisco lost power on the 2nd.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 2, 12:20 PM PST, 4 hours 40 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1220 PM PST Fri Jan 2 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, BEACHES...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1218 PM PST Fri Jan 2 2026
- High astronomical tides combined with storm surge will bring
substantial tidal flooding through Sunday
- Strong southerly winds tonight into Saturday morning
- Chance of thunderstorms tonight through the weekend
- Daily rain showers expected through Monday
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1218 PM PST Fri Jan 2 2026
(This evening through Saturday)
It has been fairly quite late this morning and is expected to
remain so through the afternoon ahead of our next approaching
system that is due to arrive late this evening and through
Saturday morning. Southerly winds are forecast to increase this
afternoon and remain gusty through at least Saturday afternoon.
Sustained southerly winds of 15-25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph
(locally stronger in the highest elevations) will remain possible
through Saturday afternoon along the coast and in the higher
terrain. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible late this
evening and into early Saturday morning as surface based CAPE
reaches up to 250 J/kg, most notability around the North Bay.
Along with this, as the main rain band moves across the region it
will be capable of producing moderate to heavy rainfall.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are likely Saturday a colder
airmass drops southward across the region in wake of the earlier
frontal passage. This is when forecast models suggest 250-750 J/kg
of surface based CAPE. The greatest potential looks to be over
the North Bay were we are expected the higher end of the above
mentioned values will be placed late Saturday morning and into the
evening. Thus, cannot rule out landfalling water spouts across
this region. This is also where there is a Marginal Risk for
severe weather with a general mention from the Storm Prediction
Center across the remainder of the region.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1218 PM PST Fri Jan 2 2026
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Thunderstorm potential will continue into Monday as reinforcing
cold fronts move through the region. The greatest potential
currently looks like early Sunday morning through the afternoon
and again Monday afternoon. Given the breaks between these
systems, we don't currently anticipate widespread flooding.
However, any heavier shower or thunderstorm will be capable of
producing heavy rain, small hail, and the potential for funnel
clouds/water spouts.
Conditions look to remain cool and unsettled through the first
half of next week, yet not nearly as wet as late this week and
into to the weekend. There remain differences in the ensemble
guidance making things difficult to pinpoint this far out.
However, there is good confidence that we will trend drier and
cooler than normal for late next week and into the following
weekend (January 10-11). This is also being captured by the 6-10
day outlook from the Climate Prediction Center.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 952 AM PST Fri Jan 2 2026
Currently VFR but expect unsettled weather to develop throughout the
day with an atmospheric river arriving tonight. Winds strengthen
late this morning/early this afternoon with gusts peaking between 30
to 35 knots tonight. Locally higher gusts to around 40 knots are
expected along the coastline and within valleys. Rain chances
increase this evening into tomorrow morning with moderate to heavy
rain expected as the main rain band rolls through overnight. There
is some potential for low level wind shear but, in agreement with
the previous forecaster, there looks to be enough mixing downwards
of stronger winds so as to prevent widespread LLWS. After the main
rain band moves through, scattered light to moderate showers are
expected tomorrow morning/afternoon. There is a 15-20% chance of
thunderstorms both within the main rain band and in scattered
showers continuing on Saturday. Visibilities are on the more
pessimistic side in the TAFs with lower visibilities supported by
locally moderate to heavy rain and strong winds. There is the
potential for visibilities to drop even further than currently
listed in the TAF if a particularly strong cell moves over the TAF
site.
Vicinity of SFO...Moderate rain, lowered visibilities, and strong
winds will impact SFO overnight into tomorrow. Winds strengthen this
evening with gusts to around 38 knots expected overnight into
tomorrow. The main rain band will arrive late this evening bringing
moderate to at times heavy rain before transitioning to moderate
showers early Saturday morning. Winds decrease mid Saturday morning
but conditions will remain gusty before strengthening again later in
the day. Guidance indicates some potential for ceilings to lower
below 3000 ft at the end of the TAF period but confidence is low.
SFO Bridge Approach...Strong, gusty winds are expected over the
southern SF Bay which may bring low level wind shear concerns to the
SFO Bridge Approach. Current thinking is that there will be enough
mixing of strong winds within the lower levels of the atmosphere to
reduce LLWS concerns but it remains a possibility. Otherwise,
similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...Winds strengthen this afternoon/evening
with gusts to around 30-35 knots expected overnight. Periods of
moderate rain and moderate showers are expected overnight as a
strong cold front passes through the region. Winds decrease by mid
tomorrow morning with showers decreasing from moderate to light.
Visibilities may drop further than currently listed in the TAF if a
strong cell moves directly over the airport. Any additional drops in
visibility are expected to be temporary.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 904 AM PST Fri Jan 2 2026
Gale force winds have developed over the northern waters and will
spread across the rest of the coastal waters today. Localized
storm force winds are possible tonight across the northern outer
waters. Winds diminish Saturday with gale force winds continuing
for the northern waters and strong to near gale force winds
elsewhere. Moderate rain and a slight chance of thunderstorms
continues through the weekend with light rain expected to
continue through early next week.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 1218 PM PST Fri Jan 2 2026
A Coastal Flood Warning is in effect for the San Francisco Bay
through Saturday. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for the
Pacific Coast and Monterey Bay through Sunday. Perigean spring tides
(king tides) will impact the region through Sunday. This is due to
the combination of the full moon on 1/3, lunar perigee on 1/1, and
perihelion on 1/3. In other words the earth, sun and moon are lined
up and close to each other. In addition to the high astronomical
tide, the incoming low pressure system will bring strong southerly
winds, generating some storm surge, particularly on Saturday
morning. The combination of these factors will bring moderate
coastal flooding to the low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal
waterways during high tide through Sunday.
On Friday, the San Francisco tidal gauge recorded 2.26 ft of
inundation. Looking ahead, high tide is expected to be 2.5 ft
above normal at 10:26 AM Saturday and 1.9 ft above normal at 11:18
AM Sunday. These predictions include up to 1.3 feet of storm
surge that will enhance the astronomical tide and flooding threat.
A reasonable worse case scenario (10% exceedance chance) is 2.7
ft of inundation on Saturday. The all time record is 2.8 ft from
1/27/1983. 2.5 ft hasn't been reached since 1998. High tide varies
up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast and
through the San Francisco Bay, respectively.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Warning until 2 PM PST Saturday for CAZ006-506-508.
Wind Advisory until 1 PM PST Saturday for CAZ006-502>505-509-512-
514>518-528>530.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to 2 PM PST Sunday for
CAZ006-506-508.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM PST Sunday for CAZ505-509-529-
530.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Saturday for SF Bay N of Bay
Bridge.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Mry Bay.
Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM PST Saturday for Mry
Bay.
Gale Warning until 3 AM PST Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-
10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-
10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning until 9 AM PST Saturday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras
Blancas 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning until 3 PM PST Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-
60 NM.
&&
SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...Kennedy
MARINE...Kennedy
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www.youtube.com/nwsbayareaThe San Francisco radar (KMUX), 115 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 11:56 UTC.
28 flood, 9 high wind, 1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
The PG&E station at Old Coast Tower reported a gust of 59 mph.
The PG&E station at Lone Tree Towers reported a gust of 68 mph.
The PG&E station at Pine Mountain Fire Road reported a gust of 71 mph.
The PG&E station at Mines Tower reported a gust of 70 mph.
The PG&E station at North Peak Access Road reported a gust of 65 mph.
The PG&E station at Cobb Ridge West reported a gust of 65 mph.
The PG&E station on Lake Drive reported a gust of 60 mph.
The PG&E station at Monte Bello Road West reported a gust of 60 mph.
The PG&E station at South Black Diamond Way reported a gust of 60 mph.
Five to six inches of water were reported on California Highway 12 near California Highway 121.
Rocks were coming onto the roadway on California Route 128 at Berryessa Knoxville Road.
The gage along Colgan Creek near Sebastopol reached Minor flooding with a peak stage of 75.5 ft.
A mudslide was reported on the 5000 block of Monticello Road (California Route 121).
Roadway flooding reported in both lanes of Old Stage Road at Spence Road.
A hard closure was put in place on Alisal Road at Zabala Road due to flooding.
Roadway flooding was reported at the 4000 block of Soquel San Jose Road.
Social media posts from the City of Monterey reported flooding near the Monterey Sports Center in downtown Monterey.
Flooding was reported on San Juan Highway at Prescott Road.
Roadway flooding reported at the Fairmont Drive onramp to eastbound Interstate 580, with reports of water flowing downhill.
The gauge along Belmont Creek at the Harbor Boulevard and Old County Road intersection reported major flooding, up to a stage of 5.26 feet.
The gage along Colgan Creek near Sebastopol reached Moderate flooding with a peak stage of 76.69 ft.
Eastbound lanes of California Highway 37 flooded at California Highway 121.
One foot of water was reported on the offramp from westbound Interstate 980 to Jackson Street.
The westbound lane of California Highway 116 was flooded at Browns Lane.
A landslide impacted California Highway 116 near Monte Cristo Avenue in Monte Rio. The slide itself stopped short of the highway, but cracks developed in the eastbound lane and traffic had to be diverted into the westbound lane.
One lane of northbound Interstate 280 was flooded at Trousdale Drive.
The gage along the Russian River at Geyserville reached minor flooding with a peak stage of 41.37 ft.
The gage along Mark West Creek at Mirabel Heights reached Moderate flooding with a peak stage of 59.79 ft.
Flooding reported in one lane of southbound Interstate 680 south of Sycamore Valley Road.
Onramp from Park Boulevard to northbound California Highway 13 was flooded.
Northbound lane of Wilson Road was flooded at Shiloh Road.
Flooding was reported on Rohnert Park Expressway at Stony Point Road.
Piner Road was flooded between Fulton Road and Olivet Road.
A delivery van went through a closed road and got stuck in floodwaters on northbound California Highway 121 at California Highway 12.
The onramp from 98th Avenue to southbound Interstate 880 was flooded.
Flooding was reported on the offramp from southbound US Highway 101 to Embarcadero Road.
Flooding was reported on both lanes of Empire Grade at the Santa Cruz Waldorf School.
Multiple landslides across California Highway 1 forced the closure of the road from mile marker 19 to mile marker 32, or Slates Hot Springs to south of Limekiln State Park.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in California in 2026Every state in 2026This day in weather historyWarnings in California, January 2026
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1299357, 1299348, 1299346, 1299354, 1299352, 1299350, 1299359, 1299356, 1299355, 1299384, 1300928, 1300930, 1300927, 1300921, 1300922, 1300923, 1300924, 1300925, 1300926, 1299850, 1300931, 1299376, 1299371, 1299377, 1299367, 1299368, 1300932, 1300929, 1299372, 1299373, 1299380, 1299381, 1299383, 1299379, 1299374, 1299369, 1299375, 1299459.