NWS Phoenix, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 19, 8:45 PM PST, 1 hour 15 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area forecast discussion, Feb 19, 8:45 PM PST, 1 hour 15 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
945 PM MST Thu Feb 19 2026
.UPDATE...06Z Aviation Discussion
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A quick moving system tonight into Friday morning will reinforce
cooler temperatures with additional chances for light showers
across central Arizona.
- Breezy to locally windy conditions return this afternoon into
tonight, particularly across portions of Southeast California,
and so a Wind Advisory has been issued for some areas.
- Drier weather returns this weekend, with temperatures warming
back into an above normal category by Sunday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /Today through Friday/...
Midlevel water vapor imagery shows the next troughing feature
starting to move down California, and zonal flow positioned over the
Desert SW. Even with the core of the trough currently in Northern
California, our region will still be under the influence of negative
height anomalies, with H5 heights today between 555-561 dam. This
will result in today's afternoon highs in the mid to high 60s across
the lower desert areas, about 4-6 degrees below normal for this time
of year. The core of this troughing feature is expected to progress
mostly W to E across the Four Corners region late tonight through
early Friday morning. Simultaneously as this trough passes, a cold
front will bring a swath of moisture into Central AZ, with PWATs
around 100-130% of normal. This will lead to additional chances of
light showery activity starting tonight into Friday morning across
the lower deserts, similar to yesterday. However, most of the
activity will be confined to the foothills and eastern higher
terrain. Total QPF associated with this frontal passage will be
between 0.01"-0.04" in the Northern Phoenix Metro/foothills, and
0.05"-0.10" in the higher terrain, while many areas may not see any
precipitation at all.
For the western portions of our CWA, winds will be the main concern
starting this afternoon through Friday morning. The NAEFS mean 850
and 700 mb wind speeds are in the upper 90th percentile of
climatology starting tonight through early Friday morning. As
pressure gradients increase ahead of this incoming system, wind
gusts to 25-40 mph will become common across the SE CA and SW AZ
lower deserts. However, some periods of higher gusts can be common
in the SW corner on Imperial County, with speeds near 60-65 mph. A
Wind Advisory has been issued for the higher terrain areas of
Riverside County, Imperial county and for Joshua Tree National Park,
starting this afternoon (3PM PST). This can lead to localized areas
of blowing dust and reduced visibilities, take care while driving
along roads in these areas.
Friday will continue to experience below normal temperatures. Across
the lower deserts morning low temperatures will be in the low to mid
40 and afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 60s across most of
the lower deserts. Other than gutsy conditions early Friday morning
in the SW portion of Imperial County, winds will subside
considerably by late tomorrow morning into the afternoon, leading to
much calmer conditions as we head into the weekend.
&&
.LONG TERM /Saturday through Wednesday/...
An abrupt pattern change will occur this weekend, with Western
CONUS troughing weakening and shifting into the Plains and ridging
rapidly building in its wake. Before the effects of increasing
heights/temperatures aloft can be felt, we are in for a chilly
morning on Saturday. Clearing skies, much lighter winds, and a
cool, dry post-fronal airmass should result in efficient radiative
cooling and thus some of the coldest temperatures we've seen in
well over a month. Communities in higher elevation valleys east of
Phoenix, such as Globe, San Carlos, and the Tonto Basin may flirt
with freezing (32F or lower) temperatures. Latest NBM gives
20-80% probabilities for freezing temperatures Saturday morning
for the typical cold prone valleys across the area.
Ensembles are in decent agreement that heights aloft will peak
Monday-Tuesday, with mean H5 heights between 583-586 dam, in
excess of the 98th percentile of CFSR climatology. Ensemble mean
850 mb temperatures in a 14C-17C range during the first half of
the upcoming work week support temperatures between 8F-14F above
normal for latter half of February, i.e., afternoon highs in the
middle 80s for the typically warmer lower desert locales. Heights
aloft decrease somewhat midweek as a series of troughs are
advertised to skim the northern tier states and begin to flatten
western CONUS ridging. This shift will also allow an IVT plume to
penetrate inland but remain mostly north of the forecast area,
bringing slight precipitation chances to the AZ high country.
However, this shift in the upper level pattern is not likely to
dislodge/diminish the warmer airmass in place over the Desert
Southwest, and so NBM highs look relatively stable through the
middle of the upcoming workweek. The primary uncertainty in
temperatures will be the extent of mid to high level cloud cover
with the inland penetrating IVT plume.
&&
.AVIATION...Updated at 0445Z.
South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
The main aviation concerns during the period will be focused
during the overnight/early morning hours with low CIGs, breezy
conditions, and iso -SHRA. Cloud bases should bottom out between
09-12Z at 3-4k ft, with the lowest CIGs closer to the 4k ft mark.
Some brief windows of MVFR conditions, but forecast confidence is
too low to warrant anything sub-VFR in the TAFs at this time.
During this similar timeframe will be the best chance to see
VCSH/-SHRA before they quickly exit the region after 12Z. Breezy
conditions will be present through a good portion of the night,
gusting to between 20-25 kts. Conditions should improve markedly
prior to sunrise as CIGs should quickly scatter out and breeziness
relaxes. Daylight hours should be accompanied by some light W'rly
winds, with perhaps some residual breezes, and passing high
cirrus.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Breezy to windy conditions will remain the main aviation concern,
but only through this evening as much calmer winds should make up
the majority of the forecast period. W/NW winds will be favored
through Friday morning with some periods of VRB to calm
conditions, especially at KBLH. High cirrus will stream over the
region with bases remaining above 15k ft.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Wind speeds will increase again today, particularly later this
afternoon across western districts with gusts 25-40 mph common. A
cold front will sweep the area tonight, bringing a focus for a few
showers mostly over foothills and mountains of Central Arizona and
the eastern districts. Minimum humidity values will generally
range between 25-45% this afternoon, then decrease slightly to
20-35% Friday. This will follow good to excellent overnight
recovery of 60-100% tonight. Drying and warming conditions are
expected for the weekend with MinRHs dropping into the teens for
the lower deserts and temperatures rising to above normal.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...Wind Advisory until midnight PST tonight for CAZ560-564-568.
Wind Advisory until 5 AM PST Friday for CAZ562.
&&
SHORT TERM...Ryan
LONG TERM...Whittock
AVIATION...RW
FIRE WEATHER...Whittock/Ryan