NWS San Juan, PR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 19, 4:53 AM AST, 5 hours 2 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area forecast discussion, Feb 19, 4:53 AM AST, 5 hours 2 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
453 AM AST Thu Feb 19 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 450 AM AST Thu Feb 19 2026
* Hazardous marine and beach conditions will develop today as a long-
period northerly swell arrives. Small Craft Advisories, High Surf
Advisories, and a High Risk of Rip Currents are in effect.
* Large breaking waves can wash over rocks and jetties, and rip
currents can quickly pull swimmers away from shore. Rough surf may
cause beach erosion and hazardous conditions for small boats.
* This afternoon, showers are expected across the interior and
western parts of Puerto Rico. Most activity should be brief and
localized. While widespread flooding is not expected, ponding of
water in roads and poorly drained areas is possible where heavier
showers occur.
* Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, hazardous beach conditions will
develop today through Friday. Therefore, a High Rip Current Risk
is in effect for St. Thomas and St. John. A few passing showers
are possible overnight and early in the morning, followed by
generally fair weather each afternoon.
&&
.Short Term(Today through Saturday)...
Issued at 450 AM AST Thu Feb 19 2026
A gradual transition toward a more stable pattern is underway across
the northeastern Caribbean as mid-level ridging builds from the west
and previous troughiness aloft continues to shift eastward. GOES
satellite imagery already shows increasing subsidence moving into
the region. Model guidance indicates 500 mb temperatures warming to
above-normal values through the period, along with less steep 700-
500 mb lapse rates. This will promote a more stable environment
overall compared to recent days.
During the morning hours, mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies are
expected, with passing showers moving across windward coastal areas
of eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. As the day
progresses, diurnal heating combined with sea breeze convergence and
local effects will support the development of convective activity.
However, strengthening ridging aloft and warmer mid-level
temperatures should limit vertical growth, resulting in mostly
shallow convection. Showers are expected to develop primarily across
the interior and western portions of Puerto Rico during the
afternoon hours.
Although convection is forecast to be less vigorous, localized urban
and small stream flooding cannot be ruled out, particularly across
the interior and western municipalities of Puerto Rico, where soils
remain saturated, and streamflows are elevated in those areas.
Ponding of water on roadways and in poorly drained areas will be
possible in areas that receive repeated showers. Generally, the
flooding threat appears to be limited.
On Friday and Saturday, mid-level ridging is expected to strengthen
further, promoting continued stabilization. Overnight and morning
hours will feature passing trade wind showers across eastern Puerto
Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, followed by isolated to scattered
afternoon showers over the interior and western parts of Puerto
Rico, driven by local effects. Activity should remain mostly shallow
due to subsidence aloft. Overall, mostly fair weather conditions are
anticipated through the end of the short-term period.
&&
.Long Term(Sunday through Thursday)...
Issued at 450 AM AST Thu Feb 19 2026
To start the next week, southeasterly steering flow will bring
patches of moisture to the region with Precipitable Water (PWAT)
values at normal to slightly above normal for this time of the year.
Patches of drier air with seasonal to below seasonal PWAT will also
reach the region. As a frontal boundary approaches by mid week,
steering flow will back to become more easterly and promote an
increase in available moisture and PWAT values late Wednesday and
Thursday. A surface high over the southwestern to central Atlantic
will gradually move away from the region to start the week as a
frontal low moves over the western Atlantic. However, another
surface high will move into the western to central Atlantic by
midweek. Upper level ridging will also be displaced out of the
region to start the week with a deep layer trough will possibly
approach the region by the latter half of the long term period.
Available moisture can reach above 700 mb to the mid to upper
levels, with cooler mid level temps and general instability.
Overnight and morning shower activity over windward sectors of the
islands and afternoon showers over sectors of the interior to W-NW
PR, as well as lines of showers from the local islands and el Yunque
are forecast under the southeasterly flow. Under the more easterly
flow by midweek and increased moisture this pattern could be
enhanced with afternoon convection over interior to western PR.
Seasonal to above seasonal 925 mb temperatures are forecast for the
long term period, particularly to start the next workweek.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 450 AM AST Thu Feb 19 2026
Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all terminals
through the forecast period. No significant weather impacts are
expected during the morning hours. Aft 19/17Z, SHRA may develop
across the interior and western PR. Trade wind showers will likely
promote -SHRA/VCSH at TJSJ, TIST, and TISX aft 19/23Z. Sfc winds
will be from the E-ENE at 8-15 kt with higher gusts and sea breeze
variations aft 19/14Z. The 19/00Z TJSJ sounding indicated ENE winds
up to 17 kt blo FL050.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 450 AM AST Thu Feb 19 2026
A surface high pressure building over the Western Atlantic will
promote light to moderate easterly winds today and Friday, becoming
moderate to locally fresh by Friday night. A long-period northerly
swell will continue to spread across the local Atlantic waters and
passages today and Friday. Combined with strengthening winds,
confused moderate to rough seas will result in hazardous seas for
small craft. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect over the
Atlantic offshore and coastal waters through late Friday night. A
gradual improvement in marine conditions is expected later in the
weekend.
&&
.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 450 AM AST Thu Feb 19 2026
Beach conditions are gradually deteriorating as a long-period
northerly swell spreads across the local Atlantic waters and
passages today. Based on the latest model guidance and NDBC buoy
observations, breaking waves are expected between 6 and 8 feet,
increasing up to 10 and 12 feet by noon today. Hence, high surf
conditions and life-threatening rip currents are expected along the
beaches from northwest to northeastern Puerto Rico, including
Culebra, and St. Thomas and St. John in the U.S. Virgin Islands.
A High Surf Advisory and High Rip Current Risk Statements are in
effect.
Beachgoers and inexperienced surfers are urged to stay out of the
water, continue monitoring forecast updates, and follow all local
advisories, warnings, and guidance from lifeguards and local
officials as conditions deteriorate.
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for PRZ001-002-
005-008-010-012.
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM AST Friday for PRZ001-002-005-008-
010.
VI...High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for VIZ001.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight AST Friday night for AMZ711-
712.
&&
SHORT TERM, AVIATION, KEY MESSAGES...CVB
LONG TERM...MRR
MARINE/BEACH...MNG