Hail in Arkansas, March 15, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1214 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1203 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

 - Area-wide Wind Advisory remains in effect until 1 AM Monday
   for northwest wind gusts 45 to 55 mph.

 - Near-critical to critical fire spread rates expected through
   this afternoon, especially along and west of Highway 75.

 - A low threat of severe thunderstorms will exist along/ahead of
   the front across far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas
   early this afternoon. The threat pushes east by mid afternoon.

 - Light snow may mix with light rain across extreme eastern
   Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas late this afternoon and into
   this evening. Very little to no snow accumulations expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1156 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

At 11 AM, a robust cold front was analyzed south and east of the
I-44 corridor. As anticipated, very strong northwest winds have
developed behind the frontal boundary, with gusts in excess of 40
mph at times. Gusts 35 to 45 mph will remain common, occasionally
up to 55 mph, through the remainder of the afternoon and into
this evening. The main concern with these winds through the
remainder of the afternoon will be the near-critical to locally
critical fire weather potential/fire spread rates, especially for
portions of northeast and eastern-central OK (generally west of
Highway 75) where rainfall has been limited recently and relative
humidity values will be lowest (30-35%) through this afternoon.
Any wildfire that ignites will spread very fast. A Rangeland Fire
Danger Statement remains intact for northeast OK and northwest AR.

A few showers and thunderstorms have developed along and just
ahead of the frontal boundary late this morning. Some maturing
and organization in the storms may occur over the next couple of
hours as the the cold front/storms begin to exit south and east
of the forecast area. Damaging wind gusts will be the main hazard
with any organized storm, potentially with gusts up to 65 mph, but
small to marginally severe hail will also briefly be possible.
The severe storm threat is expected to end by 3-4 PM. Overall
rainfall amounts will stay light and confined to portions of far
eastern OK and northwest AR, up to a couple of tenths of an inch
at most. Light precipitation will wrap around the backside of the
departing upper-level trough by mid afternoon. This precipitation
is expected to stay limited to along and north of Highway 412 in
northeast OK and far northwest AR. This band of precipitation
will drift eastward along the KS/OK/MO/AR borders late this
afternoon and into early this evening. Light rain may eventually
mix with snow flurries by late afternoon and into this evening.
Snow accumulations and winter weather impacts are not expected.

The exceptionally gusty northwest winds will slowly decrease
through the evening and overnight hours, but gusts 30 to 40 mph
will persist well after sunset this evening. A Wind Advisory
remains in effect until 1 AM Monday, with gusts 30 to 35 mph
persisting beyond the expiration of the advisory. Skies will clear
from northwest to southeast late this evening and overnight
tonight. Clear skies are expected to prevail for most locations by
sunrise Monday morning. Winter will return tonight with bitterly
cold temperatures and wind chill values. A widespread hard freeze,
with overnight lows falling into the teens and 20s and wind chill
values as low as the single digits and teens, will occur tonight.
Any outdoor sensitive vegetation should be moved inside or
covered to prevent damage.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Sunday)
Issued at 1156 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Monday will start off bitterly cold, with temperatures in the
teens and 20s (wind chills in the single digits and teens) by the
morning commute. Temperature will have a difficult time recovering
during the daytime, with brisk and gusty northwest winds
remaining in place. Despite mostly sunny skies, afternoon highs
will struggle to get out of the 40s for much of eastern OK and
west-central AR and may struggle to get out of the 30s in far
northwest AR and far northeast OK. With continuous gusty
northwest winds and a much drier airmass in place, elevated fire
weather concerns will pursue through the daytime Monday. Another
widespread hard freeze will occur Monday night into Tuesday
morning, with overnight low dropping into the 20s for most
locations. Moisture will be slow to recover into Tuesday, and
once again elevated fire weather concerns will arise by Tuesday
afternoon as winds switch back out of the south and become breezy.

Precipitation will be hard to come by in the long-term period.
Stagnant northwest winds aloft and a stout, summer-like ridge
over the Desert Southwest will help lock-in very dry air and will
make it difficult for precipitation to form or move into the
region through the upcoming workweek. Temperatures will begin to
climb each day, beginning on Tuesday, through next weekend with
no CAA/cold fronts in the forecast at this time. Temperatures may
reach the 90s for portions of the forecast area as early as
Thursday, with widespread upper 80s and lower 90s by Saturday.
Periodic breezy winds and dry weather will keep at least limited
fire weather potential each day through the long- term period.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Cold front is sweeping southeast across the region and will be
impacting the NW AR TAF sites in the near term. Spotty showers in
the region warrants a -shra mention, with thunder chances high
enough to warrant prob30 -tsra mention at all of those sites
between 18Z and 20Z. After fropa, conditions should be largely
VFR, though some potential for higher-end MVFR cigs is showing up
late in the day and into the evening across far NW AR. Skies will
eventually clear from W to E by daybreak Monday morning.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   23  44  24  62 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   25  43  24  59 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   25  45  25  62 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   18  42  20  62 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   18  39  19  54 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   20  35  19  52 /  10   0   0   0
MKO   24  42  23  59 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   20  38  19  54 /  10   0   0   0
F10   24  45  24  61 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   29  45  27  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-
     020-029.

&&

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...30

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1253 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-161800-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
1253 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Rest of Today and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Far Southeast Oklahoma into Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Area Wide.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Area Wide.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Strong northwest winds with frequent gusts of 30 to 50 mph will persist
through this afternoon and into this evening. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms will occur along the front across
northwest Arkansas before quickly moving further east and out of
the forecast area. An isolated strong to severe storm will exist
through the early afternoon hours. Otherwise, wind gusts will
aid high grassland fire spread rates. Any fire that start today
could spread aggressively and the winds could create dangerous
fire suppression efforts. The winds will slowly diminishing late
tonight into early Monday morning.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...High Wind Potential.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Gusty northerly winds will continue though the daytime Monday,
though not as gusty as Sunday. The weather pattern quickly
adjusts and gusty southerly winds develop by Tuesday. Both Monday
and Tuesday will have higher grassland fire spread conditions due
to the stronger winds. Dry weather and unseasonably warm
temperatures return by late week into next weekend.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

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