Damaging Winds in Arkansas, June 27, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1230 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1228 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

 - The potential for locally heavy rainfall and rapid onset flash
   flooding is the main concern through Saturday morning. Limited
   threat of severe weather through early Saturday morning.

 - A big shift in the weather pattern will bring hot, humid and
   dry weather starting this weekend on into next week. Heat
   advisory headlines will likely be needed.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms were ongoing late
Friday evening across portions of the region, particularly along
and north of I-44 in far NE OK and in C OK. This activity is
likely to continue through the overnight period owing to continued
WAA as a strengthening LLJ impinges on remnant outflow boundaries
in the area. Near-term guidance indicates a MCV/vort max will
slide east over the area during the early morning hours which will
keep at least low rain chances going past sunrise.

Heavy rainfall and flash flooding potential are the main concerns
through the overnight hours, as slow-moving storms will continue
to be efficient rainfall producers within an anomalously moist
environment (PWATs > 2 in). Rainfall rates in excess of 2 in/hr
and totals between 2-4 inches (locally greater than 5 inches) will
be possible in the hardest hit areas tonight. This will continue
to lead to rapid-onset flash flooding, potentially life-
threatening, as soils remain saturated from previous days
rainfall.

Guidance generally points to two areas of heaviest rainfall in
the forecast area tonight, one of which is already occurring near
the OK-KS border in NE OK, and another further to the south /
southwest. So far, locations near the OK-KS border have received
the most rainfall with flash flooding ongoing as a slow-moving
line of regenerating storms persists. This area of convection may
tend to sag south and expand eastward overnight with continued
flash flood potential. To the southwest, in central Oklahoma,
strong to severe storms have recently become more concentrated
near the Oklahoma City metro area. As this activity slides east-
southeast with time, a focused area of heavy rainfall is forecast
to develop overnight with increasing low- level flow. While some
uncertainty still exists with exact placement, current indications
paint the heaviest rainfall axis along and north of I-40 in
Creek, Okfuskee, and Okmulgee counties. These areas have seen
several inches of rainfall over the past few days and are
particularly susceptible to flash flooding. Aforementioned storms
closer to the OK-KS border may tend to weaken if this southern
band of storms becomes dominant. A Flood Watch remains in effect
for all of northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas until 7
AM. The severe threat will tend to diminish with time, but
marginally severe wind or hail remains possible into the early
morning.

Most rainfall is expected to conclude by mid-late morning as
storms weaken and shift east of the area. Skies will clear from
west to east through the day with plenty of sunshine expected
during the afternoon. This will allow temperatures to warm into
the upper 80s/lower 90s. With dewpoints remaining elevated, heat
indices will likely rise above 100 degrees and perhaps above 105
degrees (advisory criteria) this afternoon. An advisory may become
required, but with uncertainty regarding lingering precip/cloud
cover during the morning, will hold off on issuing with this
forecast cycle.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Much quieter weather is forecast through the remainder of the
forecast period as ridging moves into the region. Temperatures
will remain very warm over the next several days, with highs in
the 90s and lows in the 70s. Elevated dewpoints will continue to
provide heat indices over 100-105 degrees each day, and heat
headlines will likely be needed. While some isolated afternoon
convection will be possible by mid to late next week, mainly
across the terrain of NW AR/SE OK, dry conditions overall are
expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period outside of
thunderstorm impacts. Ongoing storms located over central OK will
eventually expand into part of northeast OK over the next few
hours and ultimately into northwest AR after 09z. IFR conditions
can be expected within storms along with gusty and erratic winds.
Showers and storms will decrease from the west Saturday morning
with decreasing clouds and gusty south winds through the day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   91  79  93  79 /  50   0   0   0
FSM   93  77  94  78 /  30   0   0   0
MLC   93  77  93  78 /  10   0   0   0
BVO   91  76  92  76 /  30   0   0   0
FYV   88  74  89  74 /  50   0   0   0
BYV   88  74  89  75 /  60   0   0   0
MKO   90  77  92  78 /  40   0   0   0
MIO   90  76  91  77 /  40   0   0   0
F10   91  77  92  77 /  30   0   0   0
HHW   92  75  93  76 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for OKZ055>071-074-154-
     172-254-272-354.

AR...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for ARZ001-002.

&&

SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...14

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
444 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

ARZ001-002-010-011-119-120-129-219-220-229-OKZ049-053-055>071-
073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376-280945-
Benton-Carroll-Washington AR-Madison-Northern Crawford-
Northern Franklin-North and Central Sebastian-Southern Crawford-
Central and Southern Franklin-Southern Sebastian-Pushmataha-
Choctaw-Washington OK-Nowata-Craig-Ottawa-Pawnee-Tulsa-Rogers-
Mayes-Delaware-Creek-Okfuskee-Okmulgee-Wagoner-Cherokee-Adair-
Muskogee-McIntosh-Pittsburg-Haskell-Latimer-Western Osage-
Northern Sequoyah-Northern Le Flore-Northeast Osage-
Central and Southern Sequoyah-Central Le Flore-Southeast Osage-
Southern Le Flore-
444 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Primarily far Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Morning.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Portions of eastern Oklahoma and west central Arkansas.
	ONSET...Afternoon.

DISCUSSION...
Numerous showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing early Saturday
morning across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. The coverage
of the showers and storms will decrease from west to east through
the morning with isolated storms possible into the afternoon.
A few strong to briefly severe storms will be possible this morning
into the afternoon. Additionally, heavy rainfall will remain a concern
with potential rapid onset flooding. The heaviest rains will likely
occur before noon. Hot and humid conditions will develop this
afternoon with potential for afternoon heat index values of 100
to 105 degrees across portions of eastern Oklahoma and west
central Arkansas.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
SUNDAY through WEDNESDAY...Dangerous Heat Potential.
THURSDAY and FRIDAY...Thunderstorm and Dangerous Heat Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Hot and humid conditions will expand and intensify area wide
through the upcoming week. Afternoon heat index values of 105 to 110
degrees will be common most day next week across much of eastern
Oklahoma and west central Arkansas. Isolated thunderstorms may return
by late week primarily across the higher terrain of western Arkansas
and southeast Oklahoma.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
153 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

OKZ064-065-270745-
Okfuskee OK-Creek OK-
153 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN CREEK AND
NORTHWESTERN OKFUSKEE COUNTIES THROUGH 245 AM CDT...

At 153 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from Shamrock to 3 miles southwest of Bristow to
Welty. Movement was northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Bristow...                        Okfuskee...
Depew...                          Slick...
Shamrock...                       Welty...
Milfay...                         Mason...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 178 and 200.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 300 AM CDT for
northeastern and east central Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3594 9662 3604 9638 3586 9619 3558 9619
      3551 9662
TIME...MOT...LOC 0653Z 241DEG 31KT 3591 9657 3579 9642 3562 9642

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
232 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

OKZ060-064-066-354-270815-
Tulsa OK-Southeast Osage OK-Okmulgee OK-Creek OK-
232 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE...CENTRAL
CREEK...NORTHWESTERN OKMULGEE AND SOUTHERN TULSA COUNTIES THROUGH 315
AM CDT...

At 232 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 8 miles east of Drumright to 5 miles west of
Kellyville to 2 miles northeast of Slick. Movement was northeast at
35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Tulsa...                          Broken Arrow...
Sand Springs...                   Bixby...
Sapulpa...                        Jenks...
Glenpool...                       Mannford...
Kiefer...                         Mounds...
Kellyville...                     Slick...
Keystone State Park...            Jenks Riverside Airport...
Liberty...                        Hectorville...
Leonard...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 193 and 227.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 300 AM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3616 9633 3616 9627 3617 9627 3620 9624
      3622 9625 3628 9617 3612 9589 3590 9579
      3590 9582 3586 9582 3574 9629 3589 9640
      3602 9653
TIME...MOT...LOC 0732Z 242DEG 30KT 3601 9645 3595 9631 3580 9624

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
237 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

ARZ001-270815-
Benton AR-
237 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN BENTON COUNTY
THROUGH 315 AM CDT...

At 237 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over
Bella Vista, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Rogers...                         Bentonville...
Bella Vista...                    Pea Ridge...
Highfill...                       Garfield...
Hiwasse...                        Miller...
Centerton...                      Avoca...
Gateway...                        Hill Top...
Beaver Lake...                    Walnut Hill...
Vaughn...                         Larue...

This includes Interstate 49 between mile markers 82 and 93.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3631 9387 3630 9387 3629 9432 3650 9434
      3650 9387 3639 9387 3639 9388 3638 9389
      3637 9388 3637 9387 3634 9387 3631 9382
TIME...MOT...LOC 0737Z 263DEG 32KT 3640 9424

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH