What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 27, 1:29 PM EST, 53 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- 1. Shower and thunderstorm chances linger through the weekend. Isolated severe storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts are possible, mainly during the afternoon/evening. 2. Heat risk will steadily increase through next week, with heat indices potentially exceeding 100 degrees across much of the Piedmont and foothills...especially from mid-week on.
Area forecast discussion, Jun 27, 1:29 PM EST, 53 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
229 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated the aviation discussion for the 18Z TAFs. Otherwise, little
change of significance has been made to the forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Shower and thunderstorm chances linger through the
weekend. Isolated severe storms capable of producing damaging
wind gusts are possible, mainly during the afternoon/evening.
2. Heat risk will steadily increase through next week, with heat
indices potentially exceeding 100 degrees across much of the
Piedmont and foothills...especially from mid-week on.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Key message 1: Shower and thunderstorm chances linger through the
weekend. Isolated severe storms capable of producing damaging wind
gusts are possible, mainly during the afternoon/evening.
Convection continues to steadily expand in coverage and
intensity this afternoon within a moderately unstable
environment characterized by sbCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg. By late
afternoon...scattered-to-numerous coverage is expected across much
of western NC...where westerly flow will result in a combination of
upstream convective clusters moving into the CWA and MCVs embedded
in the mid-level flow initiating new convection. While deep layer
shear is seasonably modest, 0-3 km shear of 15-25 kts should be
sufficient to allow for small clusters of convection to organized
along outflows...posing a threat of locally strong-to-briefly
damaging wind gusts, with pulse updrafts and cell mergers posing
an additional risk of brief microbursts.
Diurnal convection should generally wind down this evening. However,
convection is forecast to blossom and become at least somewhat
organized this afternoon/evening within a very unstable air
mass across the mid-Miss Valley on the east side of building
upper ridge. There's a decent signal in convection-allowing
models and associated ensemble guidance that remnants of this
activity will move into the southern Appalachians at some point
during the 09-15Z Sunday time frame. Considering the time of
day/limited instability and lack of stronger shear to maintain
a high degree of organization, the potential for severe weather
will be low in our area during this time, but can't rule out
some isolated strong-to-damaging wind gusts as this activity
makes its initial push into the area tomorrow morning. The
possibility...if not likelihood of morning convection creates a
considerable amount of uncertainty regarding diurnal convective
trends Sunday afternoon/evening. Remnant outflow could create
renewed potential for stronger convective development across the
Piedmont if timing of convection is late enough to interact with
destabilization...or if convection is early enough in the day
to allow for good recovery. Sunday PoPs peak at likely over the
mountains Sunday morning, with generally token chance PoPs carried
in all areas during the afternoon.
Temperatures will be a little above normal through Sunday
night. Heat Index is forecast to at least approach the century
mark across the southern ties of forecast zones Sunday afternoon,
but it is unlikely that occurrence of H.I. criteria of 105 will
be reached on anything more than a localized basis.
Key message 2: Heat risk will steadily increase through next week,
with heat indices potentially exceeding 100 degrees across much
of the Piedmont and foothills...especially from mid-week on.
An anticyclone and associated ridge will build across the TN
and OH Valleys early in the new work week, with the center of
the anticyclone forecast to build into the southern/central
Appalachians by the end of the week. This will allow the heat to
steadily build across the Southeast, with temperatures of around
5 degrees above climo during the first half of the week forecast
to increase to almost 10 degrees above normal by the start of the
holiday weekend. Maximum daily Heat Index is expected to be around,
or a little over the century mark, but still below Heat Advisory
levels through Wednesday, with greater potential for criteria to
be met Thursday through Saturday. This is all quite uncertain at
this time...and serves as a reminder that H.I. is very sensitive
to dewpoints...which sometimes mix out more than anticipated during
subsident regimes.
Otherwise, the more suppressed synoptic pattern is expected to
result in limited coverage of diurnal convection...especially from
Tuesday onward, when isolated to perhaps widely scattered activity
is forecast to be largely confined to the mountains.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Convection will continue to gradually
increase in coverage and intensity through late afternoon.
Convection is most likely at the western NC terminals, and TEMPOs
for TSRA are carried at those TAF sites at some point during the
afternoon/evening. Probabilities are lower at the upstate SC
terminals, and Prob30s are carried this afternoon/evening at KGMU/
KGSP. Gusty and erratic outflow winds and briefly reduced visby are
expected with any TSRA. The convective potential is lower at KAND,
but isolated SHRA were already developing in the general area as of
early afternoon, so opted to start them off with a VCSH.
Otherwise, SW winds of 8-12 kts are expected this afternoon
everywhere except KAVL (where lighter winds are expected).
Convection should diminish across much of the area by mid/late
evening. While VFR conditions are forecast for the overnight, can't
rule out some areas of fog and/or low stratus developing, especially
in locations that receive appreciable rainfall this afternoon/
evening. However, this is very uncertain at this point, so VFR is
generally forecast with the exception of some MVFR fog at KAVL. High
resolution guidance has consistently depicted a complex of decaying
convection moving into the area from the NW at some point Sunday
morning, so VCSH or Prob30s for -TSRA are carried at most sites at
some point between 12-18Z Sunday.
Outlook: Isolated-to-widely scattered diurnal convection is expected
Sunday afternoon and again Monday. After Monday, diurnal showers and
storms are expected to become more confined to the mountains.
Mountain valley fog/low stratus will possible each morning.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
JDL
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jun 27, 12:27 PM EST, 1 hour 55 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
127 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026
NCZ048-271800-
Madison NC-
127 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL MADISON COUNTY THROUGH
200 PM EDT...
At 126 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles south of Greeneville, or 7 miles north of Hot Springs, moving
east at 45 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Hot Springs, Allenstand, and Walnut.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3603 8259 3600 8261 3597 8261 3596 8259
3582 8265 3582 8295 3584 8292 3587 8292
3588 8290 3593 8292 3593 8290 3594 8290
3595 8285 3592 8282 3597 8278 3598 8279
3600 8278 3605 8267 3606 8263
TIME...MOT...LOC 1726Z 270DEG 38KT 3600 8287
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
MPRSpecial weather statement, Jun 27, 12:59 PM EST, 1 hour 23 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
159 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026
NCZ048>050-271830-
Yancey NC-Madison NC-Mitchell NC-
159 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN MADISON...CENTRAL
MITCHELL AND YANCEY COUNTIES THROUGH 230 PM EDT...
At 159 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles west of Burnsville, or 8 miles north of Mars Hill, moving east
at 45 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Burnsville, Mars Hill, Ramseytown, Faust, Wolf Ridge, Micaville,
Green Mountain, Celo, Swiss, and Bandana.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3605 8219 3583 8216 3584 8265 3600 8262
3599 8260 3597 8261 3596 8258 3596 8257
3595 8256 3597 8254 3598 8251 3601 8246
3602 8245
TIME...MOT...LOC 1759Z 271DEG 39KT 3595 8253
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH
MPRSpecial weather statement, Jun 27, 1:09 PM EST, 1 hour 13 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
209 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026
NCZ049-053-505-506-271845-
Buncombe NC-McDowell Mountains NC-Yancey NC-Eastern McDowell NC-
209 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL MCDOWELL...NORTHEASTERN
BUNCOMBE AND SOUTHEASTERN YANCEY COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM EDT...
At 208 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles south of Burnsville, or near Mount Mitchell State Park, moving
east at 45 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Marion, B.R. Parkway-Little Switzerland To Linville, Mount Mitchell
State Park, B.R. Parkway-Craggy To Little Switzerland, B.R.
Parkway-East Asheville To Craggy Gardens, Busick, Pleasant Gardens,
Little Switzerland, Woodlawn, and Celo.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3565 8196 3570 8245 3581 8244 3582 8241
3583 8241 3586 8214 3583 8214 3582 8212
3585 8210 3585 8206 3587 8202
TIME...MOT...LOC 1808Z 268DEG 37KT 3577 8230
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH
MPRSpecial weather statement, Jun 27, 1:50 PM EST, 32 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
250 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026
SCZ105-106-271915-
Central Greenville SC-Greater Pickens SC-
250 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL GREENVILLE AND EAST
CENTRAL PICKENS COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM EDT...
At 250 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles northeast of Easley, or 4 miles west of Berea, moving east at
30 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Greenville Downtown, Berea, Paris Mountain State Park, Cherrydale
Point, Furman University, Travelers Rest, West Greenville, and
Dacusville.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3485 8270 3495 8263 3497 8239 3484 8241
TIME...MOT...LOC 1850Z 275DEG 28KT 3489 8254
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
MPRSpecial weather statement, Jun 27, 1:57 PM EST, 25 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
257 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026
NCZ504>506-271930-
McDowell Mountains NC-Greater Burke NC-Eastern McDowell NC-
257 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL MCDOWELL AND
SOUTHWESTERN BURKE COUNTIES THROUGH 330 PM EDT...
At 257 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles northeast of Marion, or near Lake James State Park, moving east
at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Marion, Morganton, Glen Alpine, Lake James State Park, Lake James,
and Nebo.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3577 8194 3577 8193 3576 8172 3561 8176
3560 8177 3570 8205 3578 8202
TIME...MOT...LOC 1857Z 277DEG 25KT 3571 8193
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
MPRSpecial weather statement, Jun 27, 2:07 PM EST, 15 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
307 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026
NCZ035-036-271930-
Iredell NC-Alexander NC-
307 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN ALEXANDER AND
NORTHWESTERN IREDELL COUNTIES THROUGH 330 PM EDT...
At 306 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles east of Taylorsville, or near Love Valley, moving east at 25
mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Love Valley, Vashti, Union Grove, Olin, and Hiddenite.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3591 8112 3602 8112 3604 8081 3585 8083
TIME...MOT...LOC 1906Z 276DEG 22KT 3596 8103
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
MPR