NWS Riverton, WY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 27, 3:15 AM MST, 4 hours 50 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area forecast discussion, Jun 27, 3:15 AM MST, 4 hours 50 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
415 AM MDT Sat Jun 27 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A weather system approaches today and brings another chance of
thunderstorms, some could be strong to severe. The main threat
from storms would be strong wind gusts and hail.
- Elevated fire weather remains likely east of a Rock Springs to
Worland to Kaycee line through the weekend.
- Cooler weather moves in this weekend, especially West of the
Divide. Snow is possible in the mountains tonight into Monday,
with the potential for frost in the western valleys,
especially on Monday night.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 227 AM MDT Sat Jun 27 2026
Right now, it relatively "Q-word" weather wise around western and
central Wyoming and the humble Riverton abode. If you are wondering
what the "Q-Word" is, just ask any people who are police officers,
firefighters, paramedics or nurses. My mother, who is a retired
night shift nurse, told me to never utter that word while at work,
as if not to jinx yourself. But, as the pattern has been over the
past several days, it will not last.
We continue to have multiple impacts to the weather today and
tomorrow. And we will address them in this order: strong to severe
thunderstorms, fire weather and much colder weather and the
possibility of the "s" word, and by that I mean snow. The culprit of
this will be another shortwave moving around a parent upper level
low now moving onshore in the Pacific Northwest and progressing
south and east toward the area before turning northeastward into
Idaho and western Montana. This will bring somewhat cooler
temperatures today, and the tightening pressure gradient and the
nearby jet stream will bring breezy to windy conditions, especially
across the southern two thirds of the area.
Strong to Severe Thunderstorms...For the seventh of the past eight
days, we are under some kind of a convective outlook. In this case,
a marginal risk that covers just about the entirety of western and
central Wyoming. Instability is not as high as the best few days,
with the highest in far western Wyoming where CAPE values rise as
high as 1000 J/Kg, with lessening values further east as you head
into drier air. One factor for severe thunderstorms will be a potent
100 knot jet that will be passing across southern Wyoming, bringing
some upper level divergence and the approaching upper level low will
bring some lift as well.
As for the threats, for tornadoes, we can't rule one out, but
the chance is very small. The next threat, strong wind, looks to
be most widespread threat. The main area of concern for this is
East of the Divide and southern Wyoming, where model Skew T
soundings have inverted V signatures and drier air at the
surface should allow for somewhat higher cloud bases. Dew point
depressions generally range from 35 to 45 degrees. not the
biggest range. However, the strong jet energy should be able to
mix winds down from aloft. In addition, wind the fairly strong
mid level wind, steering flow will be fairly high and forward
speed of the storms will aid in the wind. And there is still the
risk of dry microbursts. We do have a conditional intensity
group 1 for thunderstorm wind (gusts to 75 mph) from the eastern
Green River Basin through most of the Big Horn Basin and into
Johnson County. As for large hail, the threat is somewhat less.
Much of the area, except for far southeastern parts of the area,
have a marginal risk of this though. The atmosphere East of the
Divide remains drier than earlier in the week, so the risk is
lower. The highest risk of hail would be across the western
mountains where deeper moisture would be found. Shear is
somewhat limited though. However, with low wet bulb zero levels,
small hail is a greater possibility here. Any storm could have
some hail, but this is the lesser threat. As for heavy rain.
precipitable water levels are not that high for most locations.
The best chance would be in the western mountains and in
northern Wyoming where precipitable water levels would be higher
but nothing extreme. Most convection should end this evening as
the shortwave lifts northward, but a few will linger through
the night, especially in western Wyoming.
Fire Weather...This will mainly be a concern for southern and
eastern Wyoming. Relative humidity will be a but higher and
temperatures a bit cooler than yesterday. However, elevated fire
weather is still possible in the afternoon across portions of
Sweetwater, Fremont, Hot Springs, Washakie, Natrona and southern
Johnson Counties where humidity will fall under 25 percent and wind
gusts over 25 mph will be common this afternoon. The area of most
concern is Natrona County, where humidity will fall into the teens.
It doesn't quite look like Red Flag Conditions but an hour or two of
critical fire weather has about a 1 in 2 chance this afternoon.
Continued elevated fire weather is possible again on Sunday
afternoon although cooler temperatures may mitigate the threat
somewhat.
Colder Temperatures and Snow...Temperatures will be cooler across
the entire area, with an emphasis on western Wyoming where Jackson
will likely be close to 20 degrees colder than Friday afternoon. The
coolest day across the area looks to be Sunday, as more cloud cover
lingers across the area and cooler air moves in behind a cold front.
Now, the main thing people are wondering about, the chance of snow.
Chances of this really begin tonight as cooler air moves in tonight
and drops 700 millibar temperatures down to minus 3, which could
lower snow levels to 7000 to 8000 feet. Any snow at this time would
be light though. Occasional light snow continues in the mountains
through Sunday and possibly into Monday. The heaviest may be Monday
as the low lifts north and a trough axis swings across the area.
Through Monday, the NBM ensemble gives a greater than 2 out of 3
chance of an inch or more of snow above 9000 feet. A few locations,
like southwestern Yellowstone Park, the highest elevations of the
Tetons and Wind Rivers above 10000 feet have a greater than 1 in 3
chance of 4 inches or more. It shouldn't be a problem for travel but
people venturing into the mountains should prepare for cool and wet
weather, this includes Yellowstone Park. If it gets a bit colder,
I can't rule out some snowflakes into even into the Jackson Valley,
although no accumulation is expected. And there is one more thing,
the potential for frost. It will turn much cooler tonight in the
west, but cloud cover should keep most temperatures above freezing.
Things get a little cooler again Sunday, but again cloud cover
may keep things warmer. The real day on concern may be Monday
night, when the low lifts out and the sky clears. Ensemble
guidance gives a greater than 1 in 2 chance of low temperatures
32 or lower in places like the Green River Basin, southern
Lincoln County and even portions of the Jackson and Star Valleys.
We could see some record lows on these days. It is too early
for freeze highlights but we will have to watch this.
Otherwise, cool weather will last through Monday and possibly
Tuesday. With decreasing instability on Sunday, the chance of
thunderstorms will be much less. Cyclonic curvature remains over
the area on Monday as well, keeping temperatures cool with most
precipitation chances across the north and west with drier
conditions further south. Going into next week as we head into
July, we will see ridging slowly build into the area with
temperatures gradually warming to near to above normal
temperatures, with the warmest temperatures in eastern portions
of the forecast area. Wyoming will be stuck between a trough
over the western United States and strong ridging over the East.
That means unsettled weather is likely to continue with
shortwaves topping the ridge from time to time, chances of
convection and breezy to occasionally windy conditions. There is
a lot of spread in guidance in timing of the waves, so
confidence in timing the periods of showers and storms remains
low at this time.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 410 AM MDT Sat Jun 27 2026
An upper level low will begin to approach the area today.
Increasing moisture will bring showers this Saturday morning
for western locations (KBPI/KPNA/KJAC), starting at KJAC around
12Z and KBPI/KPNA around 14Z. Showers and thunderstorms are
then possible for all locations during the afternoon; have kept
PROB30 groups for most terminals given the difficulty in
pinpointing the thunderstorms. The most numerous showers and
the best chance for occasional MVFR conditions will be across
the western terminals, especially in vicinity of KJAC in the
heavier showers. The one place precipitation was left out is in
vicinity of KCPR where the chance is less than 20 percent so we
left it out. Showers and thunderstorms will be on the downward
trend after 00Z. Another round of showers may approach KRKS from
the south starting around 09Z Sunday.
Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for
the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 227 AM MDT Sat Jun 27 2026
Elevated fire weather remains likely roughly along and east of a
Rock Springs to Riverton to Worland to Kaycee line. Relative
humidity will fall below 25 percent with the lowest humidity in
Natrona County where it will fall into the teens. A gusty wind
will develop this afternoon with wind gusts to 30 and in some
locations over 40 mph this afternoon. Lightning strikes from
thunderstorms are also possible. Elevated fire weather may
continue tomorrow as gusty wind and low humidity continues
although cooler temperatures may mitigate conditions somewhat.
&&
.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
DISCUSSION...Hattings
AVIATION...Hattings
FIRE WEATHER...Hattings