What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Shreveport, LA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 12, 5:45 AM CST, 30 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- Issued at 103 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026
- Hot and humid conditions will persist today through this weekend, although some respite to the heat will be possible today mainly over portions of extreme Northeast Texas, Southwest Arkansas, and Southeast Oklahoma as scattered showers and storms will be possible.
- The approach of a weak cool front Sunday/Sunday night will result in an increase in showers and thunderstorms over much of the region, which could linger into at least Monday night.
Area forecast discussion, Jun 12, 5:45 AM CST, 30 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
645 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 103 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026
- Hot and humid conditions will persist today through this
weekend, although some respite to the heat will be possible
today mainly over portions of extreme Northeast Texas,
Southwest Arkansas, and Southeast Oklahoma as scattered showers
and storms will be possible.
- The approach of a weak cool front Sunday/Sunday night will
result in an increase in showers and thunderstorms over much of
the region, which could linger into at least Monday night.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 103 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026
Convection that developed late this afternoon over Nrn/Cntrl/SW OK
into NW TX and the TX South Plains along a weak cold front has
surprisingly diminished greatly within the last few hours, aside
for isolated convection S of SPS, with a more organized but
compact cluster between MKO and FYV in Ern OK/NW AR. The 00Z HREF
initialized much too bullish with the convection early this
evening and thus is not reliable for the short term forecast, with
the HRRR not much help either as it remains a little too bullish
as well, although the 04Z run does initialize on the ongoing
convection over far Ern OK/NW AR better than the 00Z NAM/GFS. But
that doesn't give much confidence with the short term forecast in
terms of convection placement/coverage as the weak sfc bndry may
continue to drift a bit farther SE overnight, but should remain N
of the region through the day today, unless the aforementioned
convection over Ern OK/NW AR is able to reinforce the front S.
Given the low confidence, have tapered back pops to mid and high
chance this morning mainly along/NW of I-30, with the potential
that the convection well to our N is able to build farther SSE
into Wrn AR through/after daybreak.
A weak shear axis over Nrn AR near the ongoing convection
associated with upper troughing swinging through the Great Lakes
Region this morning remains progged to drift SE through this
afternoon, with potential mesoscale bndrys and strong
heating/instability contributing to the potential for isolated to
scattered convection as it may build from N to S, possibly
reaching the I-20 corridor of E TX/N LA by afternoon. Did
undercut the more aggressive NBM pops which initialized much too
high with the lack of convection now, with any convection able to
build S today expected to diminish around sunset. Max temps today
should be comparable to what was observed Thursday especially
along/S of I-20, with heat indices again marginal around 105
degrees across portions of E TX/N LA and thus have held off on a
Heat Advisory for these areas.
Flat ridging aloft extending from Srn Old MX across TX and the
Gulf Coast remains progged to begin expanding back N a touch late
tonight/Saturday, thus eroding any remaining resemblance of the
shear axis in place, while promoting more widespread subsidence
over the region. As a result, a return to more widespread hot,
humid, and dry conditions is expected, with max temps again
climbing into the mid 90s across most areas, with resultant heat
indices ranging from 100-105 degrees. Shortwave energy aloft
beginning to traverse OK/AR Sunday will help to slowly erode the
Nrn extent of the ridge in place, which will also help reinforce a
weak cool front S into the region. The jury remains out as to how
quickly the front will shift S, assuming it is not convectively
reinforced S like the ECMWF, although deepening theta-e advection
over E TX/N LA Sunday afternoon may help to invigorate the
seabreeze as weak ripples aloft begin to enter the region in VC of
the approaching front. Thus, convection should gradually increase
through the day, persisting along the weak front Sunday
night/Monday before drier air behind the amplifying longwave
trough begins to entrain SE into the region Monday night/Tuesday,
diminishing the convection from NW to SE. Tropical moisture common
across Nrn Old MX this weekend/early this next week remains
progged to advect E into the region along the base of the longwave
trough, which may help to enhance rainfall efficiency, with QPF's
of 1-3+ inches possible over much of our drought impacted area. A
welcome reprieve to the heat is also expected through the first
half of the new work week, before near to above normal temps
return for the remainder of the extended. Additional storm chances
remain uncertain though given the considerable spread in model
ensemble solutions.
15
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026
Mostly MVFR cigs prevail across the region with a few VFR and one
LIFR site. Cigs should lift and scatter a bit through the morning.
A line of showers and thunderstorms is currently moving in from
the northwest and is expected to bring impacts to KTXK and
possibly KTYR and KGGG before weakening. VCSH could be possible at
other locations as the line continues to move, but current
guidance is uncertain here. Winds will mostly be southwesterly
except for a period this evening with some variable wind
directions before returning to be southwesterly overnight. /57/
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 103 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026
Spotter activation may be needed this morning across Southeast
Oklahoma and Southwest Arkansas for the potential of isolated
strong storms containing heavy rainfall. /15/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 94 76 95 78 / 20 10 0 0
MLU 96 76 96 78 / 20 10 0 0
DEQ 89 75 92 75 / 50 10 10 50
TXK 94 77 96 78 / 40 10 10 20
ELD 92 75 94 77 / 30 10 10 10
TYR 94 77 95 78 / 20 10 0 0
GGG 94 76 95 78 / 20 10 0 0
LFK 94 75 94 76 / 10 10 10 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...57
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jun 12, 3:10 AM CST, 3 hours 5 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
410 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026
OKZ077-120945-
McCurtain OK-
410 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN MCCURTAIN COUNTY UNTIL
445 AM CDT...
At 410 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 41
miles north of Broken Bow, or 46 miles northwest of De Queen, moving
south at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Sherwood, Mount Herman, Bethel, Smithville, Hochatown, Battiest,
Watson, Pickens, Plunketville and Ringold.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.
&&
LAT...LON 3418 9447 3419 9515 3424 9515 3424 9505
3451 9505 3451 9446
TIME...MOT...LOC 0910Z 356DEG 21KT 3461 9477
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
05Special weather statement, Jun 12, 3:52 AM CST, 2 hours 23 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
452 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026
OKZ077-121030-
McCurtain OK-
452 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026
...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN MCCURTAIN
COUNTY UNTIL 530 AM CDT...
At 452 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms extending from 20 miles north of Gillham to 34 miles
northwest of Broken Bow, or extending from 21 miles northwest of
Umpire to 50 miles northwest of De Queen, moving south at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Sherwood, Mount Herman, Bethel, Battiest, Smithville, Hochatown,
Watson, Pickens, Plunketville and Ringold.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.
&&
LAT...LON 3420 9447 3418 9515 3424 9515 3424 9505
3451 9505 3451 9446
TIME...MOT...LOC 0951Z 352DEG 23KT 3445 9435 3443 9472 3442 9509
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
05Special weather statement, Jun 12, 4:36 AM CST, 1 hour 39 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
536 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026
ARZ050-OKZ077-121130-
McCurtain OK-Sevier AR-
536 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026
...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN SEVIER AND
NORTHERN MCCURTAIN COUNTIES UNTIL 630 AM CDT...
At 536 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms extending from 18 miles northwest of Gillham to 26
miles northwest of Broken Bow, or extending from 24 miles northwest
of De Queen to 45 miles north of Clarksville, moving south at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Wright City, Hochatown, Sherwood, Mount Herman, Bethel, Glover,
Watson, Plunketville, Slim, Ringold and Rufe.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.
&&
LAT...LON 3435 9505 3438 9490 3446 9446 3419 9447
3419 9433 3412 9430 3405 9479 3401 9516
3416 9516 3416 9515 3424 9515 3424 9505
TIME...MOT...LOC 1036Z 348DEG 15KT 3435 9453 3429 9488 3426 9510
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
05Special weather statement, Jun 12, 5:12 AM CST, 1 hour 3 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
612 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026
ARZ050-059-OKZ077-TXZ096-121215-
McCurtain OK-Red River TX-Little River AR-Sevier AR-
612 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026
...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN RED
RIVER...NORTHWESTERN LITTLE RIVER...NORTHWESTERN SEVIER AND CENTRAL
MCCURTAIN COUNTIES UNTIL 715 AM CDT...
At 612 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms extending from 7 miles west of Gillham to 14 miles
north of Manchester, or extending from 11 miles northwest of De Queen
to 30 miles north of Clarksville, moving south at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
De Queen, Horatio, Idabel, Broken Bow, Manchester, Wright City,
Valliant, Millerton, Haworth, Garvin, Holly Creek, Oak Hill,
Golden, Glover, Eagletown, Goodwater, Hochatown, Farmers Hill and
Shinewell.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.
&&
LAT...LON 3413 9516 3427 9447 3419 9447 3419 9433
3393 9422 3382 9479 3373 9531 3388 9531
3388 9528 3390 9529 3391 9527 3389 9527
3389 9526 3393 9525 3396 9523 3394 9516
TIME...MOT...LOC 1111Z 354DEG 11KT 3418 9444 3411 9482 3402 9521
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
05