A weak cold front and a subtle upper-level disturbance interacted with a moist and unstable airmass to produce a line of thunderstorms that moved north to south across the Mid-South on June 12, 2026. Precipitable water values approaching 2 inches combined with SBCAPEs over 2000 J/kg supported locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding, along with isolated wind damage.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MEG wrote it up.
A weak cold front and a subtle upper-level disturbance interacted with a moist and unstable airmass to produce a line of thunderstorms that moved north to south across the Mid-South on June 12, 2026. Precipitable water values approaching 2 inches combined with SBCAPEs over 2000 J/kg supported locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding, along with isolated wind damage.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 12, 12:10 PM CST, 3 hours 19 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 110 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 108 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026 - A cold front will provide a focus for afternoon showers and thunderstorms, then diminishing this evening. - An unsettled weather pattern will persist through early next week, with multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms, though severe weather probabilities remain low. - Below normal temperatures are anticipated next week with highs in the low 80s. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Thursday) Issued at 108 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026 12Z upper air analysis depicted a weak mid-level shortwave trough moving through the Lower Mississippi Valley. Late morning surface analysis showed a weak cold front stretching from the Ohio Valley back through western portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southern Plains. Regional WSR-88D radar trends show a line of showers and thunderstorms stretching from the Memphis metro area southeast into portions of northeast Mississippi. Noon temperatures range from the 70s in the rain-cooled air along the I-40 corridor, and 80s elsewhere. Hourly mesoanalysis yields surface based CAPE values between 3000- 4000 J/g, weak shear between 20-25 kts, weak low to mid-level lapse rates, and precipitable water values around 1.9 inches over north Mississippi in areas that haven't received any rain thus far. Latest CAMs suggest this activity will continue to develop and spread south across the remainder of north Mississippi into this afternoon. An isolated strong to perhaps severe thunderstorm or two will be possible into this afternoon mostly over northeast Mississippi. Damaging winds and localized flash flooding will continue to be the predominant threats. Short-term model trends suggest a couple of MCSs will develop upstream over portions of the Central Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley. One will occur later tonight and weaken as it approaches the Mid-South on Saturday, with a second one arriving later Saturday night into early Sunday morning. LREF joint probabilities of surface-based CAPE values greater than 1500 J/kg and shear in excess of 30 kts will average at best between 20-30% near the Missouri and Kentucky border Saturday evening. Damaging wind gusts are the primary threat for any severe thunderstorms Saturday evening into early Sunday. Temperatures on Saturday are expected to rise into the lower to perhaps middle 90s with heat index values between 100 to 104 degrees over portions of northwest Mississippi. Confidence remains low for reaching Heat Advisory criteria, but will reevaluate if short-term forecast trends warrant a change. Long term model trends indicate an unsettled pattern will persist across the Mid-South into next week as an upper-level trough encompasses the eastern half of the U.S. This will bring a continuation of daily shower and thunderstorm chances, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. We'll be monitoring trends for a potential organized severe weather by the middle of next week as a stronger shortwave trough moves through the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys. LREF joint probabilities of surface-based CAPE values greater than 1500 J/kg and shear in excess of 30 kts increase to 30-40% by Wednesday evening. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 108 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026 A broken line of thunderstorms continues to push south of MEM and MKL, with impacts expected at TUP between 20-23Z. Primary concerns include MVFR ceilings and north winds of 10-15 kts, gusting to around 20 kts. As the atmosphere recovers, a second round of showers and storms remains possible at MEM and MKL later this afternoon. Convective coverage will diminish after sunset, leading to VFR conditions and light winds after 00Z through the remainder of the period. While additional storms are possible late tomorrow, confidence is currently below 30% and will be excluded from the MEM TAF for this cycle. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 108 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026 Elevated humidity levels will preclude fire weather concerns this forecast period. In addition, wetting rain chances will persist through the weekend into the beginning of next week. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC AVIATION...JDS
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1218 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1211 PM Flash Flood 1 S Bartlett 35.20N 89.84W
06/12/2026 Shelby TN Trained Spotter
Flooding reported on Kirby Whitten Rd north
of I-40.
&&Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1227 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1201 PM Flash Flood 1 WSW Lakeland 35.23N 89.75W
06/12/2026 Shelby TN Public
water covering roads in the Davies
Plantation area, specifically St Phillip
Drive and Anderson Springs Drive. Photo from
social media.
&&Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1248 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1243 PM Flash Flood 1 E Midtown Memphis 35.14N 89.97W
06/12/2026 Shelby TN NWS Employee
NWS employee reported road closures due to
significant flooding at Poplar and
Union/Walnut Grove in Midtown.
&&Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
129 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0126 PM Flash Flood 1 NNW Southaven 34.99N 90.01W
06/12/2026 DeSoto MS Emergency Mngr
Stateline Rd between Whitworth and
Millbranch is closed due to flooding. There
are also reports of flooding on Stateline Rd
near Horn Lake Rd.
&&The Memphis radar (KNQA), 118 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:28 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Flooding occurred along Highway 49 and Old Little Rock Road.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arkansas in 2026Every state in 2026This day in weather historyWarnings in Arkansas, June 2026
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1347237.