What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Little Rock, AR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 31, 11:24 PM CST, 36 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026 -Daily chances for scattered strong to severe storms will persist through at least Monday -Area temperatures are expected to reach 90 degrees, with heat index values exceeding 100 degrees on Monday afternoon -Settled weather and lower humidity conditions are forecast through the latter half of next week
Area forecast discussion, May 31, 11:24 PM CST, 36 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1224 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026
-Daily chances for scattered strong to severe storms will persist
through at least Monday
-Area temperatures are expected to reach 90 degrees, with heat index
values exceeding 100 degrees on Monday afternoon
-Settled weather and lower humidity conditions are forecast
through the latter half of next week
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026
Recent radar imgry depicted elevated precip activity moving NEwrd
across NE OK and NW AR. Thru 12Z Sun mrng, this activity is expected
continue Ewrd acrs the NWrn portion of the FA. Into the day Sun, a
rinse and repeat pattern is expected, w/ hot and humid aftn condns
prevailing. MLCAPE values are progged to reach in excess of 3000
J/kg over much of AR, w/ 20 to 30 kts of effective shear supportive
of some organized storm potential thru the aftn to evng hours.
Similar to Sat, hail and damaging wind gusts wl be the primary
severe hazards w/ any storm development.
Mon, NWrly H500 flow remains progged to incrs in magnitude acrs the
Mid-South as a shortwave trof pivots Swrd into mean Ern US
troughing. A corridor of more organized MCS potential remains
possible acrs the lower MS River Valley, as depicted by shear
profiles, antecedent instability, and numerous model depictions of
cold pools developing in low-lvl mass fields. Lower confidence still
exists on finer details such as timing and location of MCS activity
Mon aftn to evng, but higher confidence still exists on organized
severe weather potential for the Ern half of the state Mon aftn to
evng.
In addition to aftn thunderstorm chances, area temps are fcst to
reach the low 90s over much of Cntrl to Srn AR, alongside dewpoints
in the low to mid 70s. Aftn heat index values are expected to reach
100 degrees or more acrs portions of AR, largely in the AR River
Valley and Ern Cntrl AR, and WBGT temps in excess of 85 to 88
degrees. For Jun 1, these fcst values correspond to widespread
moderate heat risk over much of Cntrl to Srn AR.
Tues into Wed, broad sfc high pressure over the Midwest wl extend
SWwrd into the Srn Cntrl US, w/ NErly sfc winds ushering in much-
anticipated drier air, and providing some much needed relief fm the
humidity. Thru the latter half of the week, upper ridging wl shift
Ewrd, upper lvl subsidence centering over the FA, and sfc high
pressure quelling area precip chances to just local diurnal
activity. By Fri and into next weekend, sfc moisture and local
precip chances are fcst to return to the Mid-South.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026
VFR condns wl prevail thru much of the overnight PD Sun, w/ some
uncertainty regarding convective development over Nrn AR near
01/12Z. For now, have kept mentions of VCTS at Nrn terminals.
Otherwise, the main talking point for the new PD wl focus on
another round of TSRA moving fm N to S acrs the FA b/w 01/21Z to
02/03Z. Low confidence exists on timing for now, but have
introduced late PD PROB30 groups for messaging. VRB winds wl be
seen thru the day Mon, w/ most terminals holding a light Wrly
wind.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 91 69 82 59 / 50 20 0 0
Camden AR 96 71 89 65 / 10 30 10 0
Harrison AR 88 67 81 58 / 20 20 10 0
Hot Springs AR 95 72 86 64 / 20 20 0 0
Little Rock AR 93 71 84 62 / 20 40 0 0
Monticello AR 95 72 87 64 / 20 50 10 0
Mount Ida AR 94 72 87 64 / 10 20 0 0
Mountain Home AR 88 67 81 58 / 30 10 0 0
Newport AR 91 69 83 60 / 60 30 0 0
Pine Bluff AR 94 71 86 63 / 20 40 0 0
Russellville AR 93 72 85 63 / 10 20 0 0
Searcy AR 92 69 84 59 / 40 40 0 0
Stuttgart AR 93 72 85 63 / 30 40 0 0
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
DISCUSSION...72
AVIATION...72/56
In the hours before
Special weather statement, May 31, 6:07 PM CST, 5 hours 53 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
707 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026
ARZ044-045-010045-
Pulaski AR-Lonoke AR-
707 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Lonoke
and east central Pulaski Counties through 745 PM CDT
...
At 707 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Scott, or 8 miles south of Jacksonville, moving southeast at 5 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Little Rock... North Little Rock...
Lonoke... Keo...
Meto... South Bend...
Scott... Baucum...
Bevis Corner... Willow Beach...
Toltec... Furlow...
Kerr... Galloway...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3472 9220 3486 9208 3484 9185 3462 9200
TIME...MOT...LOC 0007Z 310DEG 6KT 3475 9209
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
CavanaughSpecial weather statement, May 31, 6:14 PM CST, 5 hours 46 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
714 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026
ARZ007-008-017-010100-
Lawrence AR-Randolph AR-Sharp AR-
714 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Randolph,
northwestern Lawrence and east central Sharp Counties through 800 PM
CDT
...
At 714 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Ravenden Springs, or 14 miles northwest of Black Rock, moving
southeast at 10 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Pocahontas... Black Rock...
Imboden... Ravenden...
Ravenden Springs... Birdell...
Sharum... Eleven Point...
Davidsonville Historic State Pa...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3623 9135 3640 9128 3632 9091 3609 9104
TIME...MOT...LOC 0014Z 292DEG 10KT 3629 9124
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
56Special weather statement, May 31, 6:43 PM CST, 5 hours 17 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
743 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026
ARZ055-056-010130-
Grant AR-Jefferson AR-
743 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Grant
and southwestern Jefferson Counties through 830 PM CDT
...
At 743 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Sheridan, moving west at 10 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Pine Bluff... Sheridan...
White Hall... Warbritton...
Pine Bluff Arsenal... Sulphur Springs...
Ain... Cross Roads in Grant County...
Slabtown... Pinebergen...
Faith... Prague...
Watson Chapel... Grapevine...
Hardin... Millerville...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3428 9198 3409 9197 3413 9242 3432 9243
TIME...MOT...LOC 0043Z 087DEG 8KT 3423 9235
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
CavanaughSpecial weather statement, May 31, 6:55 PM CST, 5 hours 5 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
755 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026
ARZ033-046-010145-
White AR-Prairie AR-
755 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Prairie
and southeastern White Counties through 845 PM CDT
...
At 754 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
McRae, or 9 miles south of Searcy, moving northeast at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Searcy... Beebe...
Bald Knob... Judsonia...
Kensett... Higginson...
West Point... Pryor...
McRae... Garner...
Griffithville... Antioch in White County...
Vinity Corner... Providence...
Walker... Plainview in White County...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3517 9146 3500 9178 3502 9180 3503 9180
3503 9181 3513 9193 3541 9168 3518 9143
TIME...MOT...LOC 0054Z 228DEG 15KT 3512 9179
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
56Local storm report, May 31, 7:53 PM CST, 4 hours 7 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
853 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0817 PM Hail Searcy 35.25N 91.73W
05/31/2026 E1.00 Inch White AR Public
&&
JCGLocal storm report, May 31, 7:59 PM CST, 4 hours 1 minute before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
859 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0708 PM Hail Scott 34.70N 92.10W
05/31/2026 E1.00 Inch Pulaski AR Broadcast Media
&&
JCG