Hail in Arkansas, April 16, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
243 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

- A Marginal and Slight Risk (level 1/5 and 2/5, respectively) for
  severe storms is in place today. Hail and damaging winds are the
  primary concerns.

- Well above-normal temperatures will continue through Saturday.
  Friday will be the warmest with highs near 90 degrees.

- Cool and dry air will filter into the Mid-South on Sunday. Fire
  weather concerns will emerge at this time and persist into
  Monday.

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON / EVENING...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

The latest satellite imagery depicts an upper level shortwave
digging south into the region. As a result, storms are beginning
to fire in southeast MO. These storms house healthy hail cores,
characterized by 60+ dBZ to 30,000 ft. Quarter and half-dollar
sized hail has been reported with these storms. This activity
will continue east into northeast AR and the MO Bootheel over the
next hour or two. As of 230 PM, mesoscale analysis places
2000 J/kg of SBCAPE along and west of the MS River. In addition,
midlevel lapse rates are approaching 7C/km and bulk shear is
around 40 kts. This parameter space will encourage hail formation
in storms as they move into the forecast area. Very large hail,
up to 2 inches, is not out of the question through the evening
hours. Regarding tornadic potential, 0-1 km helicity values will
max out at 50 m2/s2 and 0-1 km shear is less than 25 kts. Further
hampering tornadic potential are LCL heights around 1000 m. The
main concern through the evening will be hail and damaging winds.

ANS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

As of 1230 PM, dissipating showers continue to move across the
Tennessee River. Behind this activity, clearing skies are evident
on satellite with a developing cu field over southern MO.
Efficient daytime heating and surface dewpoints in the low 60s
will favor elevated instability this afternoon. The latest HREF
places greater than 1200 J/kg of SBCAPE along and west of the MS
River. This, combined with elevated surface and midlevel lapse
rates, will translate to an environment conducive to rapid
convective development. Hail and damaging winds will be the
primary concerns with any storms that develop this afternoon and
evening. Given the strongly buoyant environment, hail stones may
reach 2" in diameter. The Storm Prediction Center has maintained
a 2% tornado outlook for this afternoon. However, forecast
soundings depict sub-optimal SRH and shear, thus rendering the
tornado threat near zero. Outside of the severe weather threat,
beneficial rainfall will accompany storms. Depending on where
storms set up, rainfall totals will vary widely. Areas impacted
directly by storms may see 1 - 2 inches of rain fall through this
evening. Elsewhere, only a half inch of rain is anticipated.
While this will not be a drought-buster, it will help alleviate a
bit of the recent dry spell.

Temperatures on Friday will soar into the upper 80s as a strong
ridge builds into the Mid-South. There is potential for several
climate sites to reach 90 degrees tomorrow. Should this occur, it
will beat the average first 90 degree day of the year by about a
month. Luckily, cooler temperatures are on the horizon as an
upper level trough and attendant cold front impact the region on
Saturday. Rain chances will increase Saturday morning as decaying
convection moves into the Mid-South. Environmental
destabilization will be limited by cloud cover through the
afternoon. A few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out in
the afternoon, but the severe weather window will be brief as
most guidance depicts the front overtaking convection rather
quickly. Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5" are anticipated with
this system.

Much cooler and drier air will filter into the Mid-South on
Sunday behind the aforementioned front. Elevated fire weather
danger will exist through Monday as relative humidity falls below
30 percent and dead fuel moisture reaches 10 percent. Surface
winds will remain less than 15 mph, negating the need for a Red
Flag Warning. Outside of fire weather concerns, Sunday and Monday
will feature near-normal temperatures with highs in the 60s and
70s. Long range guidance keeps the Mid-South in northwest flow
through midweek before upper level ridging returns in the
Wednesday / Thursday timeframe. A few showers may occur at this
time, but there remains no major signal for appreciable rainfall
through the middle of next week.

ANS

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Low confidence TSRA forecast this afternoon and evening. An upper
level disturbance will trigger TSRAs over the next couple of
hours, however, coverage and location of storms remains
uncertain. We decided to keep a larger window for PROB30 at JBR,
MEM, and MKL this afternoon and evening. The coverage of TSRA
this afternoon/evening will largely determine the VCTS being
carried at MEM around the FedEx push tonight.

VFR conditions will persist across all sites outside of TSRAs.
Gusty south winds will develop tomorrow morning as a cold front
slowly approaches from the west.

AC3

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Fire weather concerns return on Sunday as MinRH values drop below
30% and dead fuel moisture reaches 10%. This may necessitate a
Rangeland Fire Danger Statement through Monday. Increasing
humidity will be in place Tuesday, returning fire weather
concerns to minimal through the end of the period.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...AC3