Flood in Alaska, June 15 to 17, 2026

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
205 PM AKDT Mon Jun 15 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain is the main concern today as moderate rain has already begun
in the Brooks Range. This area of rain will gradually spread to
the Beaufort Sea Coast this evening and may be heavy at times from
Bettles to Coldfoot northward to Deadhorse and Nuiqsut. This rain
will continue through tomorrow, ending by Wednesday morning.
Temperatures are warm everywhere, so the rain combined with
snowmelt can result in areas of flooding along the Kuparuk, Sag
and Colville Rivers. Elsewhere across Northern Alaska the weather
is generally quiet outside of some isolated showers in the Eastern
and Western Interior while the Central Interior remains mostly
dry. A warming trend is expected by the middle and end of the week
with a uptick in thunderstorms likely.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- 0.5 to 1.0" of rain expected from today through Tuesday night
  around Bettles and Coldfoot.

- Isolated showers elsewhere with cool temperatures today and
  tomorrow. Breezy across the Interior with southwest winds
  gusting 15 to 25 mph across most of the Interior.

- A warming trend from mid to late week and into the weekend with
  an uptick of thunderstorms likely.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- A few lingering showers today near the coast, otherwise mostly
  dry with cool temperatures and breezy south/southwest winds up
  to 25 mph in most spots.

- Mild temperatures, but not as warm as last weekend, expect highs
  in the 60s to near 70 through Wednesday in the Interior and 50s
  to near 60 along the coast with a possible warming trend towards
  the end of the week.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Moderate to heavy rain from the Central Brooks Range to the
  Central Beaufort Sea Coast. Rainfall totals from today through
  Wednesday morning will be 0.5 to 1" from Deadhorse to Toolik,
  and 1.0 to 1.5"+ around Atigun and Anaktuvuk Pass.

- A Flood Watch is in effect for the Colville, Sag, and Kuparuk
  Rivers and the Dalton Highway due to a combination of heavy rain
  and snowmelt.

- East and west of the rain is mild and mostly dry, but we do see
  a warming trend by the end of the week with summer-like weather
  expected, including very warm temps and thunderstorms.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
In the near term, the main story is a shortwave moving northwest
in the Brooks Range, settling over the Central Brooks Range and
North Slope this afternoon. There isn't much change compared to
yesterdays analysis and we are still expecting significant rain
accumulations in the Brooks Range and North Slope through
Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Many spots will pick up near or
over 1 inch of rain near the Central Brooks Range, especially in
Atigun and Anaktuvuk Passes.

Otherwise, drying conditions will occur on the North Slope after
this wave of rain moves out and it will lead into warming and
drying conditions as a ridge builds in. The weather elsewhere
across Northern Alaska is relatively quiet outside of some stray
showers. Regardless, it gets a bit active late in the week because
of the aforementioned ridge. We'll have a warming trend for much
of the Interior and this will bring temperatures above normal, but
seasonable for much of the area, meaning temperatures likely get
into the upper 70s or low 80s in the Interior and 60s/70s
elsewhere. Thunderstorms will also be the main precipitation maker
moving forward, so there is some concern for significant fire
weather. Given that most of this is in the extended and includes
fire weather, we will go a bit more in depth in their respective
sections below.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No huge concerns in the near term for fire weather as
temperatures are cooler today and tomorrow, largely in the 60s and
low 70s in the Interior. RHs will bottom out around 30 to 35%
across most Interior Valleys for the next several days. Winds will
be breezy from the southwest this afternoon and tomorrow
afternoon with gusts up to 25 mph, but they will calm later this
week as ridging gradually builds in from the west. Thunderstorms
will be pretty tame today with slight chances over the Upper
Tanana and Western Brooks Range, then over the Upper Tanana
tomorrow. By Wednesday, chances to spread farther west over the
Alaska Range and Central Interior, but these will be isolated. On
Thursday the chance will continue to spread west with isolated
storms over the Western Interior, Brooks Range and North Slope.
Much higher chances for storms will arrive from Friday through the
weekend with coverage potentially being over the entire Interior
and Brooks Range. Temperatures will be on the rise, into the upper
70s and low 80s this weekend with lower RHs possible. This
pattern shift will be monitored closely.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Temperatures in the Brooks Range will be warming into the 60s and
low 70s for highs and staying above freezing with low
temperatures in the upper 30s to mid 40s over the next several
days. The Arctic Plain and Coast will have temperatures ranging
from about 45F to 70F with lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

Rain is expected through Wednesday morning across a wide swath of
the Brooks Range and North Slope. Rainfall totals as of 2:00pm
AKDT June 15th are around 0.20 to 0.50" in the Central Brooks
Range with lighter amounts towards the Arctic Coast. Rainfall
totals will be around 1.5 inches in the Brooks Range with 0.5 to
1.0 on the Plains and Coast.

We are already beginning to see small rises on the Middle Fork of
the Koyukuk, Koyukuk at Bettles, Slate Creek and Atigun River
below Galbraith Lake. We will likely continue to see rises through
Tuesday as the rain and snowmelt persists.

Most of the ice on the larger rivers has already moved out which
leaves more room to accommodate the snowmelt and rainfall. This
contrasts with last year's late breakup when the snowmelt all
entered the river systems while ice was mainly still in place.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Thursday through Monday.
High pressure will continue to build over Western Canada and the
Eastern Interior of Alaska. This low will be paired with a low
pressure in the Bering Sea. The upper-level pattern will set up
for a warm and active solstice weekend. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will be expected across much of the Interior
beginning Friday, and these chances will continue through the rest
of the forecast period. With the amount of energy moving through
the region this weekend and it being the solstice weekend,
thunderstorm activity could continue overnight and into the early
morning. Models are still resolving the small features that are
moving through the pattern, so the location of the highest
thunderstorm activity may shift around. Regardless this looks to
be an active, warm, and dry weekend for much of Northern Alaska.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Flood Watch for AKZ804>810.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815.
&&

Bianco
Dennis - Extended Discussion