NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 13, 5:47 AM AKST, 10 hours 6 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jun 13, 5:47 AM AKST, 10 hours 6 minutes before
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
647 AM AKDT Sat Jun 13 2026
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/
Saturday through Monday evening)...
Discussion:
The overall weather pattern across Alaska remains characterized by
broad high pressure centered over the Bering Sea and western
Canada, with several embedded lows and shortwaves rotating around
the periphery of the ridge.
The ridge is beginning to lift northward and elongating this
morning as a stout upper-level low and occluded surface low move
from the North Pacific northwestward toward southern Kodiak Island
and the southern shores of the AKPen. The associated front is now
pushing north of Kodiak City and into the northern Gulf, with
widespread rain and gale-force easterly winds across the coastal
waters. As of 4 AM, rain is overspreading the Kenai Peninsula with
the northern edge of precipitation in a ling from south of
Cordova to south of Kenai.
Rain will continue expanding northward across the eastern Kenai
Peninsula, Prince William Sound, and the northern Gulf Coast
through Saturday. Periods of moderate rainfall are expected,
particularly along coastal and upslope locations where terrain
enhancement will maximize precipitation totals. Inland areas west
of the Chugach Mountains will remain comparatively drier, though
increasing cloud cover and isolated showers are expected.
The strong gap winds the developed yesterday evening have
diminished in intensity overnight. However, as the front moves
inland later today, a second round of southerly gaps winds for the
Typical locations - Turnagain Arm into Anchorage, and the Knik
and Copper River Valleys - will redevelop. Again, gusts of 25 to
35 mph are possible this afternoon through this late this
evening.
Attention then focuses back on the Gulf for late Saturday as
another strong area of low pressure develops, driving toward the
Barren Islands for Sunday morning. This system will have good
upper level support, with a potent shortwave riding along its
front as well as a 120kt jet streak in the upper-levels.
High end gales are expected out ahead of and along the front with
storm-force gusts across the coast south of Cordova and into
Prince William Sound. Another round of heavy rain will also drive
into the coast, with another 1 to 3 inches of rain expected on top
of what will have fallen today.
The bigger impact from this system for Southcentral, however,
will be wind as the low center moves from the Barren Islands
Sunday morning into Southwest Alaska Sunday afternoon. Cold air
behind the front, along with a strong isallobaric max (pressure
rises) behind the front will usher in gusty south to southeast
winds for many locations as the front moves inland. Strong
southerly/easterly winds in excess of 40 kt are possible by late
Sunday morning for Resurrection Bay (Seward) and Passage Canal
(Whittier), respectively. Gusts approaching 60 mph are also
possible for Portage, parts of Turnagain Arm, and the
Anchorage/Eagle River Hillsides. Wind gusts up to 50 mph may be
possible for W and S Anchorage, Palmer, and across parts of the
Copper River Basin.
By Sunday night, the initial frontal system weakens as it
continues to track inland, allowing winds to slowly diminish in
intensity. Unsettled conditions, however, will persist across
much of Southcentral as weaker shortwaves move over Southcentral
from the Gulf, embedded in the southerly flow aloft. Lingering
showers are expected along the Gulf Coast and Prince William
Sound, while interior valleys including Anchorage and the Mat-Su
should see a mix of clouds.
For Monday, the weakening vertically stacked low south of the
AKPen begins to slide southeast while weak ridging begins to build
back into Southcentral Alaska. Although precipitation coverage is
expected to decrease, a tightening pressure gradient between
higher pressure building over the interior and lower pressure
lingering across the northern Gulf may once again support
localized gap winds through favored areas including Turnagain Arm,
Knik River and portions of the Copper River Basin. Gusty winds
may periodically extend into West Anchorage and Palmer during the
afternoon and evening hours. Lingering showers are expected along
the eastern Kenai Peninsula, Prince William Sound, and portions of
the Copper River Basin, while inland locations including
Anchorage should see a mix of clouds and some sunshine with only
isolated showers developing over nearby higher terrain.
Temperatures will trend slightly warmer as skies gradually clear
and precipitation becomes more limited.
-TM/LM
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Monday afternoon)...
***Key Message: A Wind Advisory remains in effect for the northern
Bristol Bay coast including the cities of Dillingham, Togiak, and
Manokotak from 10AM Today to 4AM Sunday. Gusts up to 50 mph are
expected for these areas.***
Discussion:
The pattern of fog in the Bering, and convective systems over
Southwest Alaska will finally transition out as a new low
pressure system moves in south of the Alaska Peninsula this
morning. In the Southwest interior, warmer temperatures will
linger, however not as dry as the previous few days, then
conditions cool and stabilize under increasing cloud cover later
this weekend. Along the Alaska Peninsula, stratiform rainfall will
move in early this morning, promoting cooler temperatures in
these areas. Similarly along the AKPen, easterly winds will
increase this morning. Wind speeds will be highest along the
southern coastline of the Peninsula, however easterly winds coming
through the gaps of the mountain range will promote gusty winds
in the coastal Bristol Bay area. Gusts up to 50 mph are possible
this afternoon, as such the aforementioned Wind Advisory is in
effect.
This system's rainfall and movement in the overall air column
will bring a reprieve in the fog over the area, but replace it
with continued low stratus and light rain. Easterly gale-force
winds are expected to establish over the southern side of the
Peninsula, including for communities such as Sand Point this
morning will diminish into this evening and Sunday. The highest
rain amounts will be along the Pacific side of the Alaska
Peninsula (including Chignik) at around 1 to 1.5 inches of rain
from Friday into the weekend. Rain amounts outside of this area
will be much lower, as the bulk of moisture will remain limited to
the Pacific and Gulf coasts. Through Sunday afternoon, rainfall
will expand across Southwest Alaska, reaching the Kuskokwim Delta
by noon Sunday and persisting into Monday morning. The overall
pattern quiets down early next week as shower activity and
coverage decreases for the AKPEN and surface high pressure builds
from west to east across the Bering Sea and Aleutian Chain.
-CL
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through
Thursday)...
A broad upper-level ridge over the eastern Gulf will gradually
shift eastward through early next week while a low pressure
system remains over the Gulf of Alaska. The interaction between
these features will maintain a moist southerly flow across
portions of Southcentral Alaska through Tuesday. Periods of rain
are expected across the eastern Kenai Peninsula and Prince William
Sound on Monday, with lighter precipitation extending westward at
times into the ALaska Peninsula and Kodiak Island.
As the ridge continues to move east, precipitation coverage is
expected to decrease from west to east Tuesday into Wednesday
across Prince William Sound and the eastern Kenai Peninsula, while
much of inland Southcentral experiences a gradual drying trend.
By Thursday, forecast guidance suggests a weak upper-level
disturbance tracking eastward across the Aleutians and Bering Sea.
This may bring an increase in cloud cover and scattered showers to
portions of Southwest Alaska and the Aleutians, while much of
Southcentral Alaska remains under relatively quieter conditions
with only isolated shower activity possible. Temperatures are
expected to remain near slightly above seasonal normals through
the period.
LM
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...The southeasterly Turnagain Arm winds have shifted away
from the terminal this morning, resulting in a light north to
northeasterly wind flow at the surface. Winds aloft are still
southeasterly, resulting in the potential for LLWS through mid to
late morning. A few sprinkles are also possible this morning as
precipitation ahead of a front in the Northern Gulf spills over
the coastal mountains. Even with any precipitation this morning,
VFR ceilings should prevail...although ceilings may drop to around
5000 ft at times through late morning. The SE Turnagain Arm winds
will bend back over the terminal by this afternoon as the front
moves inland and north of the region. These winds again will
quickly move away from the terminal tonight as another storm
system enters the Gulf. LLWS is possible overnight as a stronger
northerly surface wind develops over the terminal. Very strong SE
winds (perhaps gusting as high as 50 mph), and a better chance
for light rain, are then expected by late Sunday morning as this
next systems drives inland.
&&
Special weather statement, Jun 13, 1:26 PM AKST, 2 hours 27 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service ANCHORAGE AK
226 PM AKDT Sat Jun 13 2026
AKZ701-702-141400-
Anchorage-Anchorage Hillside / Eagle River-
Including the cities of Anchorage, Eagle River, Eklutna,
Anchorage Hillside, Upper Eagle River, and Indian
226 PM AKDT Sat Jun 13 2026
...UNSEASONABLY STRONG WINDS FOR ANCHORAGE BOWL AND ANCHORAGE
HILLSIDE LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...
A strong system moving from the Gulf of Alaska into Southwest
Alaska will bring a period of strong southeast winds to portions
of Southcentral Alaska on Sunday. The strongest winds are expected
from late Sunday morning through Sunday evening.
Anchorage Bowl: winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.
Anchorage Hillside: winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph
with isolated gusts as high as 60 mph.
Please use caution if driving or towing a high profile vehicle,
or if planning any outdoor activities with easily lofted objects.
AKZ703-141400-
East Turnagain Arm-
Including the city of Girdwood
226 PM AKDT Sat Jun 13 2026
...UNSEASONABLY STRONG WINDS ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM LATE SUNDAY
MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...
A strong system moving from the Gulf of Alaska into Southwest
Alaska will bring a period of strong southeast winds to portions
of Southcentral Alaska on Sunday. The strongest winds are expected
from late Sunday morning through Sunday evening.
Expect sustained winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph with
higher gusts on mountains of possibility 50 to 60 mph.
Please use caution if driving or towing a high profile vehicle,
or if planning any outdoor activities with easily lofted objects.
AKZ704-141400-
Portage-
Including the city of Portage
226 PM AKDT Sat Jun 13 2026
...UNSEASONABLY STRONG WINDS FOR PORTAGE LATE SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...
A strong system moving from the Gulf of Alaska into Southwest
Alaska will bring a period of strong southeast winds to portions
of Southcentral Alaska on Sunday. The strongest winds are expected
from late Sunday morning through Sunday evening.
Sustained winds of 35 to 45 mph with gusts as high as 60 mph are
possible in and around Portage.
Please use caution if driving or towing a high profile vehicle,
or if planning any outdoor activities with easily lofted objects.
AKZ711-141400-
Lower Matanuska Valley-
Including the cities of Palmer, Wasilla, and Big Lake
226 PM AKDT Sat Jun 13 2026
...UNSEASONABLY STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING DUST FOR PALMER AND BUTTE
LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...
A strong system moving from the Gulf of Alaska into Southwest
Alaska will bring a period of strong southeast winds to portions
of Southcentral Alaska on Sunday. The strongest winds are expected
from late Sunday morning through Sunday evening.
Expect sustained winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph,
especially near Palmer.
Areas of blowing dust are expected to develop near Palmer, Butte
and along exposed sections of the Glenn Highway, occasionally
reducing visibility and creating hazardous travel conditions.
Please use caution if driving or towing a high profile vehicle,
or if planning any outdoor activities with easily lofted objects.