Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms developed along a quasi-stationary front extending across southern Missouri and northwest Tennessee during the afternoon hours of June 13, 2026. These storms were supported by SBCAPE values of 3000 to 4000 J/kg and 0-6km bulk shear values of around 30 knots.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MEG wrote it up.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms developed along a quasi-stationary front extending across southern Missouri and northwest Tennessee during the afternoon hours of June 13, 2026. These storms were supported by SBCAPE values of 3000 to 4000 J/kg and 0-6km bulk shear values of around 30 knots. The storms formed into a line by late afternoon, with several reports of damaging winds. Slow-moving storms combined with precipitable water values around 2 inches to produce heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 13, 11:29 AM CST, 3 hours 33 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1229 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026
- Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected this
evening and may continue into the overnight hours Sunday
morning. Damaging wind gusts are the main concern and heavy
rainfall could lead to localized flash flooding.
- A Heat Advisory is in effect for the Mississippi Delta through
8PM today for heat indices above 105 degrees.
- Cooler air arrives Sunday, with temperatures falling into the
mid-70s to low 80s for Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Friday)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026
KNQA is just beginning to pick up what will become our first of
two rounds of strong to severe storms this evening/overnight.
CAMs are really struggling to resolve the timing of the first
round; discrepancies up to 6 hours are noted between the HRRR and
the FV3. It's hard to describe one as an outlier over another
since the entire suite of short-term models all has a vastly
different solution for timing and locations affected. Taking a
more ensemble approach to the forecast leads us to a general
window of about 4PM to 11PM for the initial push of quasi-
linearly organized storms along the first surface boundary. These
storms will only have about 30 kts of bulk shear to work with
(weak to mid-range), but with DCAPE on the order of 900 J/kg
north of I-40, strong downdrafts will be a primary threat on the
leading edge. There is a secondary threat of large hail, but
confidence is much lower for this.
Similar to Friday's torrential downpours, PWATs over 2 inches
will support extremely efficient rainfall-producers tonight. This
is nearing the upper echelon of climatology for moisture in the
column, which will manifest in heavy rainfall rates. Areas that
received 4+ inches of rainfall Friday (Paris TN, Memphis TN, Lexa
AR) will be particularly vulnerable to flooding. While this
first boundary is fairly progressive in its forward propagation,
the storm motions along the boundary itself may result in
training storms. If this happens, flash flooding will emerge as
another primary threat. After the first wave of showers and
thunderstorms, model consensus diverges again. The HRRR is really
the only CAM that simulates another bonafide line of storms
holding together this far east in the 2AM to 6AM time frame along
the actual cold front. Most other models confine that second
round to the ArkLaTex region overnight, keeping just a few
straggling showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Mid-South.
Due to the noteworthy uncertainty, we will continue to message
the possibility of two distinct rounds, noting that confidence is
lower for the overnight round.
With hot and muggy conditions on deck this afternoon ahead of the
front, a Heat Advisory has been issued for the MS Delta through
8PM. There was a low chance (20-30%) of meeting the 105 degree
heat index criteria for Memphis and a few surrounding counties,
but given the anecdotal evidence of heat indices being
overestimated in the NBM the last few days, opted to leave the
metro out and focus on the Delta where oppressive heat is almost
a given. After the cold front moves through on Sunday,
temperatures and resultant heat indices take a much-appreciated
dip back to below normal for a few days in the wake of a cool
airmass. Expect highs generally in the low to mid 80s Sunday
through Tuesday. The upper level pattern starts to level back out
and we start to creep back up to near normal summer heat by
midweek.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026
VFR conditions prevail across all terminals and are expected to
continue through 00Z. Thereafter, chances for showers and
thunderstorms will increase. Convective timing remains uncertain
as CAMs continue to show poor agreement. Current indications
suggest an initial line of storms may approach terminals near
01Z, followed by a lull from 06Z through mid-morning before a
second round develops. Given limited confidence in precise timing
and coverage, have opted for PROB30 groups this evening and again
between 15-18Z rather than prevailing TS. A cold frontal passage
tomorrow afternoon will shift winds and lead to diminishing
convective chances after 18Z at KMEM, KJBR, and KMKL.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026
Elevated humidity levels will preclude fire weather concerns this
forecast period. In addition, wetting rain chances will persist
through the weekend into the beginning of next week.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ035-036-048-049-
058.
MO...None.
MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ007-010-011-020.
TN...None.
&&
PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...JDSThe Paducah radar (KPAH), 103 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:59 UTC.
5 thunderstorm wind, 3 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
East Mitchell Street in Trimble was closed due to a downed tree and electrical lines blocking the roadway.
Downed electric lines occurred in the Nora Drive / Edward Street area of Newbern.
Tree and minor building damage reported in downtown Sharon.
A tree was knocked down, blocking the northbound lane of Munford Giltedge Road near Sturdivant Road.
A tree was knocked down on Highway 51 at Watson Road, blocking half of the road.
Buena Vista Road was flooded and impassable, resulting in a road closure.
Flash flooding led to a road closure at the Poplar Avenue and Union Avenue intersection.
Several roads, including South Main, were closed due to flooding. A business was flooded, and the water covered a car up to its roof.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Tennessee in 2026Every state in 2026This day in weather historyWarnings in Tennessee, June 2026
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1347273, 1347274, 1347275, 1347276, 1347277, 1347269, 1347270, 1347271.