NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 4, 5:57 AM AKST, 3 hours 3 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jan 4, 5:57 AM AKST, 3 hours 3 minutes before
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
557 AM AKST Sun Jan 4 2026
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
Key Messages:
- An Extreme Cold Warning is in effect for the Copper River
Valley, including Glennallen and Chitina through today. Cold
Weather Advisories are also in effect through today for most of
the Copper River Basin, Thompson Pass, Anchorage, Whittier, and
the Kenai Peninsula. Temperatures should improve later today as
we pivot to a snowier weather pattern for the the first half of
this week.
- Most of southern Alaska should plan ahead and prepare for a
significant switch towards a snowier weather pattern expected
late this weekend and next week. A Winter Weather Advisory is in
effect from 9PM tonight through 9AM Monday for the western
Kenai Peninsula for snow and blowing snow that could reduce
visibility. Monitor for updates to forecast as details continue
to evolve and confidence on timing/amounts increases.
The weather across Southcentral again remains steady this
afternoon as frigid cold and clear conditions continue, other than
areas of cloud cover lingering near McCarthy. Although winds are
expected to generally remain calm, any bit of wind would drop the
apparent temperatures lower. Cold air funneling through coastal
terrain continues to bring gusty gap winds through typical
locations including Seward and Whittier, Valdez and Prince William
Sound, and the Copper Delta. These winds are expected to persist
through this morning and decrease once the pattern begins to
shift.
Temperatures are set to trend relatively warmer and become more
dynamic heading into early next week. Confidence has become high
for a return to snowfall for many locations across southern
Alaska, including Southcentral. Current thinking is for
precipitation to begin this afternoon for Kodiak Island as snow
before transitioning to a rain/snow mix and eventually plain rain
later this evening. The front continues to lift north and east
through the Kenai Peninsula and Prince William Sound late this
evening, bringing the first of two rounds of snowfall expected for
Southcentral. Anchorage could see snow as early as around 9PM
this evening, while the Susitna Valley, the rest of the northern
Gulf coast (Cordova), and Copper River Basin are likely to see
snowfall through the overnight hours into Monday morning. Although
temperatures are expected to moderate overnight into Monday, cold
surface temperatures will likely not scour out very quickly. This
could cause dry, highly transportable snow to blow and drift
easily as northerly winds increase as the front approaches the
Gulf coast. Reduced visibility and blowing/drifting snow will be a
potential problem for several areas, especially the western Kenai
Peninsula and locations prone to gustier winds such as Thompson
Pass.
Once stronger easterly flow moves across the Kenai and Chugach
mountains early to mid Monday morning, there could be some
downslope drying, cutting off snowfall briefly for those on the
leeside. However, a more significant and longer duration wave of
snow will quickly follow later Monday afternoon. Moist
southwesterly flow, cold air advection, and high snow liquid
ratios will bring precipitation enhancement for the Cook Inlet
communities and along the upslope regions of the Talkeetna
mountains. These higher snowfall rates and accumulating snowfall
amounts likely persist through at least Monday night into Tuesday
morning. Details on this shift towards a snowier pattern and snow
amounts are expected to evolve over the next few days. Monitor for
updates to forecast.
JH/Rux
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Tuesday)...
Key Messages:
- A potent frontal system will bring high winds to the Bering Sea,
Aleutian Islands, and Southern Alaska Peninsula. There remains
uncertainty with whether the Pribilof Islands, located closer to
the calmer winds around the low center, will see gusts reaching
the high wind threshold (75 mph).
- The same storm will bring heavy snow, blowing snow, and strong
winds to all of Southwest Alaska today and tomorrow. Steady snow
will slowly taper off from west to east through Monday with
snow showers lingering across the Kuskokwim Delta and steadier
snow lingering along the Alaska Range.
- Marine hazards associated with this storm will include localized
areas of waves 40 feet or greater, as well as high surf and
coastal flooding along the Bering side of the Alaska Peninsula
and for the Bristol Bay coast.
- After this storm moves through, colder air surges southwards,
bringing a return to frigid temperatures as well as expanding
coverage of heavy to extreme freezing spray along the ice edge.
Here are watches, warnings, and advisories currently in effect:
* High Wind Warning remains in effect for Western, Central, Eastern
Aleutians and Southern Alaska Peninsula.
* High Wind Watch remains in effect for Pribilof Islands.
* Cold Weather Advisories remain in effect for Kuskokwim Valley,
Kuskokwim Delta, and inland Bristol Bay.
* Blizzard Warning for Kuskokwim Delta and Western Capes.
* Winter Storm Warning for Northern Bristol Bay coast, inland
Bristol Bay, King Salmon, Kuskokwim Valley, Lake Iliamna / Nila
Vena / Nanvarpak and Lime Village.
* Winter Weather Advisory for Northern Alaska Peninsula.
* High Surf Advisory for Northern Alaska Peninsula.
* Coastal Flood Advisory for Bristol Bay coastline.
See previous discussion below, with minor edits:
The main weather feature of note continues to be the likely
sub-950 mb, hurricane-force North Pacific low moving north into
the Bering today. This low will bring high winds to the Aleutian
Chain and southern Bering through Monday with gusts up to 100 mph
possible for Adak and Atka and up to 80 mph for Shemya and
Unalaska to Cold Bay. This low will bring a front into Southwest
Alaska by midday, with moderate to heavy snow and blowing snow.
Blizzard conditions will be likely stretching from the Kuskokwim
Delta Coast and interior Kuskokwim Delta down into Bristol Bay.
Snow amounts will range from 8 to 16 inches with gusts as high as
40 to 50 mph, especially across Nunivak Island and the YK Delta.
Snow will develop across interior Southwest by early to mid
afternoon today, with heavy snow and gusty winds at times. Snow
amounts may be slightly less than those forecast along the coast;
however, heavy snow and winds will still lead to reduced
visibilities and difficult travel for most interior locations.
Some model guidance continues to suggest the potential for a
wintry mix along portions of the northern Alaska Peninsula.
Although this pattern, with winds shifting to the southeast along
the front, usually denotes a quick changeover from snow to rain,
it is possible to see pockets of sleet and/or freezing rain given
the very cold antecedent conditions. As such, a Winter Weather
Advisory is out from Pilot Point to Egegik for this potential
wintry mix.
The front will stall and occlude as it gets to the coast, keeping
the warm air aloft from moving over the southwest mainland. The
main low will then move to the Pribilofs by Monday morning then to
Bristol Bay by Monday evening. As it does, weak cold air advection
and trailing upper-level waves will allow strong westerly winds to
continue across the southern Bering and Aleutian Chain. These
winds will likely persist into Tuesday for the eastern Aleutians
and Alaska Peninsula until a upper-level low over NW Alaska dives
south and the trough axis pushes east of the region. The strong
west-northwesterly winds across the Southeastern Bering and
Bristol Bay may result in a period of high surf and elevated water
levels across the Northern AKPen Monday.
Various waves rotating around the base of the upper-level low will
allow snow showers to continue across Southwest Alaska through
Tuesday, with the most persistent bands in favored upslope areas
due to the westerly wind flow. Behind the upper-level low, another
shot of arctic air will dive south. Expect temperatures to once
again drop well below zero with gusty northwesterly winds by
midweek.
-TM/KC
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...
Broad troughing with a closed low pressure system in the Gulf of
Alaska will be in place at the start of the long term forecast
period. Weak ridging over the eastern Bering Sea will keep
Southwest Alaska dry while snow showers linger across
Southcentral. Strong northwesterly winds through gaps of the
Alaska Peninsula are likely on Wednesday, especially through the
Barren Islands. The Gulf low looks to pull east toward the Alaska
Panhandle Wednesday afternoon which will diminish Southcentral
precipitation and winds through Thursday.
Further west, another strong low pressure system looks to bring
high winds and localized heavy precipitation to the western and
central Aleutians Wednesday and Thursday. While model agreement
regarding the eastward track of this system is very poor, it is
looking likely that the southern coast of Alaska sees a
significant round of precipitation Friday and Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will most likely prevail with light
northerly winds to gradually increase up to 10 kts or so through
09-12z Monday. This morning, however, areas of patchy fog or mist
are possible, which could result in brief periods of reduced
visibility and lower ceilings. Expect the chance of patchy fog to
linger throughout the morning, and to finally mix out by the
afternoon. By 09-12z Monday, expect ceilings to lower to MVFR as
light snow tries to fill in across the area.
-AM
&&
Special weather statement, Jan 4, 6:12 AM AKST, 2 hours 48 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service ANCHORAGE AK
612 AM AKST Sun Jan 4 2026
AKZ703-704-725>728-050000-
East Turnagain Arm-Portage-Southern Kenai Mtns-
Interior Kenai Peninsula-Turnagain Pass-
West Prince William Sound & Whittier-
Including the cities of Girdwood, Portage, Seward, Moose Pass,
Summit Lake, Hope, Turnagain Pass, Whittier, and Chenega
612 AM AKST Sun Jan 4 2026
...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY IN BLOWING
SNOW LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...
A pattern shift is expected from the frigid cold temperatures to
a return to a snowy pattern for all of Southcentral late this
evening. Cold air already in place at the surface will allow for
snow to be very dry, fluffy, and transportable. This will increase
the potential for snow to accumulate quickly and any winds could
easily blow that snow around, reducing visibility. Snow is
expected to begin over the southern Kenai Peninsula after 6PM,
spreading north towards Anchorage by around 9PM. The heavy
snowfall rates will most likely occur between 9PM and 6AM. There
is lower confidence at this time for how quickly snow will
accumulate along parts of the Seward Highway, but the potential
exists for snowfall rates up 1 inch an hour through East Turnagain
Arm, Turnagain Pass, Portage Valley, Whittier, Moose Pass, and
Seward. Light snow will likely continue through Monday morning,
but rates should decrease after 6AM. Snow totals range from 4 to 9
inches. Another round of light snow is possible later on Monday
through Wednesday morning, but accumulation should be at a more
steady rate.
If you plan to travel, prepare for accumulating snow and
potentially reduced visibility Monday morning. Plan for extra time
to reach your destination and consider any extra supplies you may
need.