High Wind in Alaska, January 11, 2026

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
541 AM AKST Sun Jan 11 2026

.SHORT TERM...
The first short wave feature that brought gale force winds to the
outer coast continues deteriorate Sunday morning as it races
northward towards the northeast coast. A dry slot that developed
over the central panhandle as this feature vacated the area is
slowly being eroded by the plume of moisture that has already
begun to impact the southern panhandle as of this discussion. Rain
rates will continue to increase through the morning hours, with
gale force southeasterly winds with gusts up to 50 mph as well
lasting into the early afternoon before diminishing. For more
information on the heavy rainfall and ongoing flood watch, see the
hydrology section.

With the main plume of moisture aimed at the southern panhandle,
the rest of the panhandle, particularly from Icy Strait northward,
will see a relative break. Showers will continue through the
morning hours from persistent onshore flow and remnant moisture
and instability from the previous shortwave, but there will be a
noticeable break later Sunday morning. These trailing showers are
capable of producing gusty erratic winds as well as ice pellets.
By the afternoon hours, periods of light to moderate rain will
gradually push northward towards the Icy Strait Corridor and up
Lynn Canal, lasting into Monday.

.LONG TERM...
The active weather is expected to continue going into the long
term period. A low moving into the Gulf Sunday will bring another
round of precipitation and winds to the panhandle. The exact
location of this low continues to remain uncertain both in
deterministic and ensemble guidance. But the overall impacts look
to still be seeing increased winds and another significant period
of rain. Current thinking is that the strongest winds will be
along the southern panhandle around the Clarence Strait area as
the low moves up. The heaviest precipitation is also expected to
be over the southern panhandle south of the Icy Strait area. 24
hour rain amounts in this area look to reach up to 2-3 inches of
rain while the northern panhandle looks to see around 1-1.5 inches
of rain during this time. With the warmer temperatures already in
the area, most places will stay rain but snow is possible,
especially for locations in the Northern Lynn canal area. Another
concern with this low is where does it track. If the low tracks
closer to land and then into Canada, a lot of locations could
potentially see a surge of winds during the day on Monday.

Behind this low, the active weather is expected to continue into
the middle of the week. Another atmospheric river looks to move
into the area for Tuesday. This could potentially bring another
shot of significant rain and strong winds to the area. Especially
Tuesday evening headed into Wednesday morning as the low moves
through the Gulf waters. Like the system on Sunday, there is still
significant disagreements on the exact locations due to model
uncertainty in ensembles as well as the NBM. This will need to be
watched for any potential changes in track and intensity over the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION.../through 12z Monday/
Quick look at satellite imagery shows a split regime across the
panhandle with one system departing out of the northern panhandle
with another entering the southern panhandle as of Sunday morning.
For the northern panhandle, ongoing VFR to MVFR flight conditions
with CIGS generally AoB 4000ft and visbys as low as 4SM within
heavier showers. For the southern panhandle, an approaching system
with moderate to heavy rain and elevated winds is pushing into
Prince of Wales, Annette Island, and Ketchikan as of 14z, keeping
flight conditions deteriorated down to MVFR to IFR with CIGS AoB
1500ft and visbys as low as 3SM, with IFR CIGS at Metlakatla and
Ketchikan ongoing. Through Sunday, VFR conditions across the
panhandle will give way to predominate MVFR or worse with CIGS AoB
3000ft by 00z this afternoon with precipitation becoming more
widespread as the southerly system gradually shifts westward
across the panhandle. Worst flight conditions will remain across
the southern panhandle TAF sites, along and south of a line from
Sitka to Angoon to Petersburg, with likely IFR visbys and CIGS as
moderate to heavy showers push inland.

Strongest sustained winds will remain across the S Panhandle
through Sunday early afternoon as front pushes inland, with
sustained winds up to 25kts with gusts up to 45kts likely for
Ketchikan and Annette Island. In addition, strong S to SE-ly LLWS
around 2 kft will be a concern across the S Panhandle TAF sites
through Sunday afternoon, with strongest LLWS up to 50kts expected
near Ketchikan and Metlakatla as front pushes inland, gradually
decreasing by 06z Sunday evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Inside waters: Winds diminished slightly overnight across the
northern channels overnight into Sunday, but the southern
channels will continue to increase to mid gale force of around 40
kt with gusts up to 50 kt, especially in Clarence Strait as
another new short wave moves north behind the first one. Southerly
winds of 25 to 35 kt will likely linger in the southern channels
through at least Monday before diminishing. Seas will mostly be
wind driven waves with the highest being up to 7 to 8 ft in
Clarence Strait Sunday though some southerly swell will cause
higher seas up to 18 ft near ocean entrances exposed to the south.

Gulf Waters: The first in a series of short wave features is
moving inland over the northeast coast early Sunday morning. The
next short wave will be moving north farther east spreading
another area of gale force conditions to the SE gulf and Dixon
Entrance area for Sunday, with winds already ramping up in the
southeast gulf as of this discussion. Expect southerly winds of
25 to 35 kt to persist in that area through at least Monday before
diminishing Monday night. Seas are rather high with 15 to 20 ft
seas being rather common, driven by a 12 to 14 ft S swell with a
15 sec period. Seas overall are expected to remain rather high (in
the 10 to 20 ft range with higher seas in the SE part of the
gulf) through Monday at least with persistent high S swell through
that entire period.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Sunday sees another low pressure move up along the moisture feed,
bringing an additional surge of rain primarily for the southern
half of the panhandle. Expecting IVTs to be somewhat lower, less
than 500 kg/ms, but with healthy divergence aloft, strong low
level flow, and high freezing levels, rain to be fairly efficient.
The southern and central panhandle could see 1.5 to 3.0
additional inches with higher amounts near Ketchikan and
Metlakatla, and rainfall rates could exceed 0.2 inches per hour
during the Sunday morning and early afternoon timeframe. Main
concerns right now are ponding of water in low lying areas, along
with rapid increases in creeks and streams. What is particularly
uncertain at this time is the current state of the snowpack at
higher elevations. As snow levels look to rise to above 4000 ft in
the south, cold rain will fall on these higher snowpacks. If the
snowpack is primed or near primed, additional runoff could be
wrapped up into existing rainfall, adding to the fuel for any
flooding in the area.

Additionally, Tuesday looks increasingly likely to have
additional moisture move into the area. While IVT values look to
exceed 500 kg/ms, details regarding location and magnitude of
moisture are not fully clear at the moment. Stay tuned for
details.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Warning until 9 AM AKST this morning for AKZ318.
     Flood Watch through Monday morning for AKZ326>332.
     Strong Wind until 6 AM AKST early this morning for AKZ328.
     Strong Wind through this afternoon for AKZ330.
     Strong Wind through this evening for AKZ332.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036-641-661.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-022-031-033>035-053-642>644-
     651-652-662>664-671-672.

&&

SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...STJ
HYDROLOGY...NC

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