Flash Flood in Alabama, June 9, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
119 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 108 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026

- Heat indices will warm each day, and reach triple digits in many
  locations by mid to end of the work week, and into the beginning
  of the weekend.

- High temperatures will climb by the middle of this week,
  reaching the lower 90s in many locations by today.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible
  each day, increasing in coverage by Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 108 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026

High pressure begins to develop across the southeastern US, with
low level winds in southern Georgia from the east, and winds over
Alabama from the south. This is creating a convergence zone in
the south and eastern parts of the state, allowing convection to
develop through the afternoon, and should last through the
evening. The wind profile is weak and chaotic, with meager
instability. With low level winds from the east in the far
southeastern parts of the state, moisture isn't quite as rich as
if winds were from the south. With the winds as they are, could
expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to be slow moving and
produce decent rainfall. Any storm that can tap into enough
instability to become strong could produce damaging winds as it
weakens and/or collapses. Otherwise, no severe weather is
expected, and flooding impacts should be limited to any urban
areas that have training storms.

By Wednesday, the high pressure will build east over the
southeast US, causing weak winds at the surface. Low to mid level
flow will be from the south and east. Moisture advection will
remain fairly high, with isolated to scattered convection each
afternoon. Thursday and Friday should look similar to Wednesday
as the high continues and a low pressure begins to develop and
move to the east through the plains.

The high temperature through the end of the work week and
beginning of the weekend will easily move into the 90s. With the
amount of moisture that will be advected into the area with this
southerly flow, heat indices will reach the upper 90s, and by
Thursday, near or at triple digits for a few areas. By Friday and
Saturday, many locations could reach heat indices a couple of
degrees above 100. Right now, the values are not high enough to
reach Advisory criteria, but heat stress will definitely be a
concern each day. Low temperatures at night will be in the low to
mid

24

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 108 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026

Isolated to scattered convection will continue across eastern AL
through the afternoon and early evening. Coverage is expected to
be higher at KAUO, with less coverage at KMGM. Due to uncertainty
in exact timing and location of any activity over these two TAF
sites, have left only TEMPO and PROB30 for now. Isolated showers
may move close to KBHM and KEET through the afternoon, but
confidence was too low to include in TAF for now. Activity should
weaken by late evening, with fair winds through the night and
Wednesday morning.

24

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Elevated chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected for
much of this week. Because of that, MinRH values will remain
above 45% or higher into next weekend. Given daily rain chances
and high MinRH values, fire weather concerns remain low at this
time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     70  90  71  91 /  10  20  20  30
Anniston    70  89  72  90 /  20  20  20  30
Birmingham  72  91  73  92 /  10  10  10  10
Tuscaloosa  73  92  74  93 /  10   0   0   0
Calera      71  93  72  94 /  10  10  10  10
Auburn      70  91  73  92 /  20  10  10  20
Montgomery  72  92  74  93 /  10  10  10  10
Troy        70  92  72  93 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...24