NWS Cheyenne, WY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 5, 4:26 AM MST, 12 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area forecast discussion, Feb 5, 4:26 AM MST, 12 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
426 AM MST Wed Feb 5 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- High Wind Warnings are in effect for much of southeast Wyoming
this morning through the evening hours.
- Cold front expected on Thursday, leading to decreasing winds
and cooler temperatures.
- A chance of rain and snow will start the weekend, with cold
air behind this returning the region to near to below average
temperatures to start next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 424 AM MST Wed Feb 5 2025
Cool and quiet night ongoing across southeast Wyoming and western
Nebraska. Winds are slowly beginning to pick up in the Arlington
wind prone zone, with the High Wind Warning beginning at 12Z this
morning. Halleck Ridge has already started gusting near criteria,
but should hold off consistently hitting criteria until around 12Z
when gradients improve. Skies are clearing off to the west with low
stratus remaining across the Panhandle. Low stratus should begin to
clear in the next few hours as winds start picking up across much of
southeast Wyoming.
Primary concern today is the high winds for much of southeast
Wyoming. The region will be sandwiched between an upper-level trough
over southern Canada and a weak upper-level ridge over the southern
CONUS, leading to zonal upper- and mid-level flow throughout the day
today. With strong gradients between the trough and the ridge
centered right over Wyoming, a 140 to 150kt upper-level jet will be
present overhead throughout the day. Models are picking up on some
kinks in the height lines at 250mb. While kinks in the height lines
at 500mb are fairly common with mountainwave events, models picking
up kinks at 250mb, even in models with poorer resolution, suggests a
fairly strong event setting up across the region. As a result, this
mountainwave setup may be a bit stronger than previously expected.
The mountainwave is event more evident at 700mb, where a 65kt jet
develops briefly across the North Laramie Range with a 60kt westerly
jet elsewhere across the Laramie Range later this morning. In
addition to strong support at the upper-level for a high wind event,
a surface low is progged to develop and strengthen across the CWA
later this morning, leading to increased surface pressure gradients
from west to east across the Laramie Range. With a strong, 700mb,
westerly jet across the Laramie Range and increasing surface
pressure gradients across the same area, strong winds are looking
very likely just downwind of the Laramie Range along the I-25
corridor. GFS downward omega fields also max out along the Laramie
Range later this morning suggesting very strong downward motion just
downwind. The maximum downward omega gradients spread easterly later
this morning into the early afternoon hours with a very strong omega
gradient setting up across central Laramie County and moving
eastward into eastern Laramie County. With continued support at
700mb, strong downward gradients, strong surface pressure gradients,
and in house random forest guidance pinging high winds at Bordeaux,
decided to upgrade Bordeaux, eastern Platte, and central Laramie
County to a High Wind Warning and expanding this warning to include
eastern Laramie County for a brief period late the morning into the
early afternoon hours. Did change timing a bit for the High Wind
Watches that were upgraded to warnings, as the best forcing for
strong winds is expected to end fairly quickly at 00Z. Started
Bordeaux and central Laramie County at 15Z when the downward omega
gradients really begins to strengthen then started eastern Platte
and eastern Laramie Counties later at 18Z as the strong gradient
pushes eastward. Overall, should be a fairly quick hitting high
wind event for these locations and confidence is lowest in
eastern Laramie County where the strongest winds may not
completely reach the zone. However, model data supported enough
concern to go ahead and issue the High Wind Warning. High Wind
Warnings for all other locations look good with Arlington and
central Carbon County beginning at 12Z, followed by northern
Converse County, the I-80 Summit, the Laramie Range Foothills,
central Laramie County, and Bordeaux at 15Z, finally followed by
eastern Laramie and eastern Platte County at 18Z.
A second round of elevated to near high wind criteria winds look
likely on Thursday across similar areas. Though to overall setup
appears to be weaker than today's, strong downward omega gradients
combined with westerly 700mb winds may lead to elevated wind gusts
across the wind prone regions. Did decide to not issue any headlines
at this time, due to the weaker appearance of the system as a whole
and given that High Wind Warnings were already in effect to limit
potential confusion on headlines. Additionally, a cold front will
push southward throughout the day Thursday leading to an effective
shut off for the winds as the front propagates southerly. Did
slightly increase temperatures across southern portions of the CWA
for Thursday as the front appears to hang up along the Laramie Range
and take longer to reach southern portions of the CWA. As a result,
temperatures should warm more in these locations than those seeing
the frontal passage early in the morning. No widespread precipitation
is currently expected with this front, though the mountains should
see ongoing snow throughout the day leading to just under advisory
snowfall totals of around 5-6 inches. Better precipitation chances
return Friday onward, so see long term discussion for those
details.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 424 AM MST Wed Feb 5 2025
The long term pattern will become more progressive as upper
level ridging will give way to deep troughing that will
overspread the Western US and into portions of the Plains, with
westerly to northwesterly flow then dominating and bringing much
cooler temperatures into next week.
Friday will see the beginning of our pattern change as upper
level ridging will give way to a quick moving shortwave trough,
which will then shift us into a deeper and more widespread
troughing pattern over the Western US. As this initial system
moves across, we should see both an increase in precipitation
activity for most of the CWA alongside another round of breezy
winds. For winds, a quick moving low-level jet with speeds
60-70 knots at 700mb alongside subsident flow is expected to
bring another round of breezy winds to our area, strongest in
our wind prone areas. In house guidance isn't quite as excited
for this event compared to the last few, with probabilities of
gusts at 60 mph only around 40-50% for Friday into Saturday.
Still with the aforementioned ingredients in place, our normal
windy spots will likely see another round of near to high wind
warning level gusts at least a few times Friday afternoon into
Saturday morning as this system moves across. Meanwhile, QPF
will be on the rise as this system passes across, with an influx
of moisture including PWAT values around 150-200% of normal.
Because this system will actually have more forcing compared to
the last few, we should see a better chance of precipitation
making it outside of the mountains, though at this time amounts
still remain low for these areas as southwesterly flow will help
to continue shadowing the bulk of the precipitation to the
mountains. Temperatures will be descending at the lower
elevations as well, allowing for any rain that does fall to
begin mixing with snow into the overnight hours.
Once we move into the weekend and early next week, our pattern
turns more progressive as flow becomes more westerly to
northwesterly on the front of the deepening large scale trough.
Several smaller transient systems will pass across as well,
bringing chances of light precipitation daily for most of our
CWA. At this time most impacts look largely non-significant
outside of temperatures descending back down into near to below
normal, with a frigid air mass swinging our highs back into the
teens to 20's outside of the mountains, with single digits to
teens in the mountains. These sub-freezing temperatures will
persist through the end of the forecast period, so don't expect
a thaw out anytime soon.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 424 AM MST Wed Feb 5 2025
IFR to LIFR conditions expected to continue at SNY through
sunrise before scouring out later this morning as daytime
heating helps to release the inversion over the area. AIA could
also briefly see lowered CIGs, but the cloud deck has remained
SCT at this area keeping it just outside of the lowered
conditions. Otherwise breezy winds return today with gusts 25-40
knots all sites through this evening, declining overnight into
Thursday, with wind shear just above the surface also possible.
Finally, RWL may see light snow today, with brief drops to VIS
and CIGs possible.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...High Wind Warning from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM MST this
evening for WYZ101-116-117.
High Wind Warning until 11 PM MST this evening for WYZ104.
High Wind Warning from 8 AM this morning to 5 PM MST this
afternoon for WYZ106-118.
High Wind Warning from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM MST this
afternoon for WYZ107-119.
High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for WYZ109-110.
NE...None.
&&
SHORT TERM...AM
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...CG