A closed low traversing the country brought a cold front through the Mid South region. A weak shortwave spawned a few severe storms in the afternoon across southwest Virginia before a more robust line of severe thunderstorms arrived overnight accompanied by higher shear but lesser instability.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MRX wrote it up.
A closed low traversing the country brought a cold front through the Mid South region. A weak shortwave spawned a few severe storms in the afternoon across southwest Virginia before a more robust line of severe thunderstorms arrived overnight accompanied by higher shear but lesser instability. Severe storms brought several instances of damaging winds in each round.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Morristown, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 16, 12:20 PM EST, 1 hour 9 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 120 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1020 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Radar shows the convection so far is staying to our northwest, and the question as to how far south it will make it this afternoon is still problematic even this close in time. The hi-res CAMS have not been very dependable over the last 24-36 hours, and continue to show varying solutions that tend to change run to run. Am having to lower PoPs for this morning as the model's morning convection depicted from earlier runs has not materialized over our area. However, destabilization south of the ongoing storms is expected to bring an increasing chance of development further south into our area mainly N of I-40 this afternoon. No significant change in thinking as to the environment any storms will encounter, so the threat of severe storms continues with damaging winds, large hail, and a low threat of tornadoes for this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 217 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Key Messages: 1. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible during the day. Less confidence in coverage within a capped and weakly forced environment. 2. Stronger forcing tonight and steep mid-level lapse rates will increase instability and result in a likely line/complex of severe thunderstorms across the area. Discussion: The main story of the forecast is today and tonight with the risk of severe weather. We will have a very warm, unstable atmosphere across the area this afternoon, and while coverage is uncertain, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible mid-day through the afternoon, mainly north of Interstate 40. HRRR/RAP forecasts show MLCAPE this afternoon between 2000 and 2500 J/Kg with EBShear of around 50 to 60 kt. This will be supportive of long-track supercell structures and damaging wind complexes. With LCL heights around 1000m and relatively weak low-level shear this afternoon, the tornado risk will be very low with a risk of mostly large hail or damaging winds from any supercells this afternoon. As we get into the evening hours, loss of daytime heating will result in less scattered convection. However, height falls associated with the shortwave trough DPVA will steepen lapse rates and result in rising instability to around 2500 J/Kg overnight ahead of a line of strong to severe thunderstorms. This line will be capable of all severe weather hazards. As the cold pool intensifies and 850mb LLJ winds increase to around 50 kt, damaging winds along the line of thunderstorms will be the primary risk. Downed trees and power outages are probable. There will also be a low (around 5 percent within 25 miles of a point) risk of tornadoes associated with this line due to the strengthened low- level shear and ESRH around 200 to 300 m2/s2. The main timing of this line will be after 03z and before 08z. Additionally, RAP forecast PW values of 1.6 to 1.8 will be near the climo max, and NAEFS IVT values are forecast to be near climo max. This is a strong signal for heavy rain rates which may result in localized flooding for urban and poor drainage areas, and for any areas that receive rainfall during the day today. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Friday) Issued at 217 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Key Messages: 1. Mostly dry and warm over the weekend. 2. Precipitation chances increase early next week, especially Tuesday into Wednesday. 3. Cooler late next week in the wake of a cold front. Discussion: Mostly dry and warm this weekend as shortwave ridging sets up across the Tennessee Valley. By early next week, a stronger shortwave trough will approach the Mississippi Valley with increasing chances for thunderstorms on Tuesday into Tuesday night across portions of the Tennessee Valley and Southern Appalachians. Subtle vort maxima/MCVs will bring the potential of scattered rain and thunderstorms on Monday through Tuesday night. By Wednesday, a cold front moves east across the area with cooler temperatures, and slight chance probabilities for primarily upslope light precipitation across the higher elevations. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1259 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Showers and thunderstorms will move through mainly overnight, although a storm may impact TRI this afternoon. Will try to time the main threat periods with prob30 thunder groups all sites. Other than during the precipitation, predominantly VFR conditions are expected, although there may be a brief period of MVFR conditions lingering behind the overnight showers/storms, with the highest chance for that to occur being TRI. Winds will be gusty from the southwest today, with a bit more of a westerly component late in the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 68 87 67 84 / 80 10 20 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 67 83 63 81 / 90 10 10 30 Oak Ridge, TN 66 84 62 82 / 90 10 10 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 64 80 58 79 / 90 20 10 10 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && SHORT TERM...JB LONG TERM....JB AVIATION...
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Morristown TN 1131 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002- 005-006-008-171545- Cherokee-Clay-Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins- Sullivan-Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen- Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene- Southeast Greene-Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter- Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-Northwest Blount- Blount Smoky Mountains-North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains- Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe- Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-East Polk-Lee- Wise-Scott VA-Russell-Washington VA- 1131 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 /1031 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest North Carolina...east Tennessee and southwest Virginia. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight A few strong to severe storms are possible during the day on Friday but confidence is low for overall storm coverage. Higher confidence exists for strong to severe storms to occur Friday night into Saturday morning. Damaging straight line winds up to 70 mph and large hail up to 1.5" are the primary threats with a low probabilities of tornadoes. In addition, there is a threat of very heavy rainfall leading to flooding mainly across SW VA, NE TN and the northern Cumberland Plateau this afternoon into tonight. Please have multiple ways to receive watches or warnings such as NOAA Weather Radio and Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEA) on cell phones. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday Isolated strong to severe storms will remain possible across the southern Plateau and southeast Tennessee for Sunday and Monday, and area-wide Tuesday. Strong damaging winds will be the main concern. A more widespread outbreak of severe storms are possible for Wednesday with damaging winds and hail. There is a good deal of uncertainty of the extent and timing of these thunderstorms. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will likely be needed Friday evening into Saturday morning.
The Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 90 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:31 UTC.
10 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Several trees were blown down by severe thunderstorm wind gusts.
Several trees were blown down by powerful thunderstorm wind gusts.
Several trees were blown down by severe thunderstorm wind gusts.
Several trees were felled by severe thunderstorm winds.
Multiple trees were felled by severe thunderstorm winds.
Multiple trees felled by severe thunderstorm wind gusts.
Several trees were felled by powerful thunderstorm winds.
Several trees were blown down by powerful thunderstorm winds.
Widespread trees down across the area from severe thunderstorm straight line wind gusts.
Several trees were blown down by severe thunderstorm wind gusts.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Virginia in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Virginia, May 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1262860, 1262861, 1262863, 1262864, 1262865, 1262871, 1262872, 1262873, 1262874, 1262875.