Heat in Virginia, July 31, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
355 AM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will gradually weaken as a cold front enters the
area tonight from the north. Expect widespread showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, with some
redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms for Friday as the
front slows down to our south. This activity will bring very
heavy rainfall at times. Temperatures begin to cool down Friday
into the weekend with a few mostly dry days.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 245 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Showers and thunderstorms are expected again today and
tonight as a cold front shifts south. Very heavy rainfall is
the main concern.

2) One more hot and humid day, but short of heat advisory
criteria.

This morning, Bermuda high pressure was located over FL and the
east GA/Carolinas coastlines. This feature will dip farther
south today as a broad trough encompasses much of the eastern
CONUS. A couple areas of vorticity maxima, one originating from
the Gulf Coast, and the other associated with the leading edge
of the upper trough, will impact the Mid Atlantic today and
tonight. A very slow moving summertime front will begin to
impinge on our area from the north, arriving tonight.

The increased forcing for ascent along with a very moist and hot
air mass will trigger additional rounds of showers and storms
beginning around noon and lasting through tonight. PWATs and
specific humidity values are 2 to 3 standard deviations above
normal according to NAEFS throughout much of the atmospheric
column. PWATs will range from about 1.6 inches in SE WV to
around 2.1 inches in northern NC and Southside VA today. This
combined with slow storm motions between 5 to 15 kts, training
storms, and deep warm cloud depths ahead of the cool front will
produce another day of efficient and very heavy rainers. Expect
total rainfall amounts to be between a quarter inch to pockets
of 2+ inches, with higher amounts over the terrain. This will
mean flash and urban and small stream flooding will be the
biggest concerns once again.

Instability looks to remain shy of 1500 J/kg, and shear will be
marginal with relatively weak updrafts (straight up/straight
down), so not expecting severe winds. In fact, the stronger
storms and heaviest rains will be along the front to our north
this afternoon, with parts of NE VA, PA, MD, and CT seeing the
worst of it.

The front arrives tonight, and will slow over the piedmont of NC
overnight, clearing the area by morning. Dense fog, warm
temperatures, and some stratus for the mountains are forecast
again Friday morning with most areas having seen rain.

As far as temperatures, the mountains will be in the 80s again
today, with the piedmont seeing temperatures in the low 90s.
Heat index values will peak in the lower 100s for perhaps an
hour or two in a few spots east of a Lynchburg to Danville line,
but overall we will be shy of the required 105 heat index for
needed for an advisory east of the Blue Ridge.

Confidence in the near term is moderate to high.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
...As of 315 AM EDT THURSDAY...

Key Messages:

1) Showers and storms on Friday, lesser chance over the weekend

2) Cooler temperatures through the weekend

On Friday, a trough axis associated with the front which passed
through the region on Thursday will settle overhead. This will
provide another afternoon and evening with widespread storm coverage
and the potential for heavy rain and flooding concerns, as there
will still be plenty of available moisture. PWATs will still be
above normal even in the wake of a front, with most of the area
having a PWAT > 1.75".

Saturday will be a little less active as we lose some moisture, and
the trough axis is not so ideally located. Showers and storms will
be most likely to form over the NC High Country and foothills, as
well as the Grayson Highlands, but a few scattered showers could
still reach further north into VA. The bigger story for Saturday
will be the long-awaited arrival of much cooler temperatures and
lower dewpoints. Highs in the 60s and 70s, and heat indices of
similar values will be a reprieve from the muggy heat of the
previous week. Sunday will be quite similar to Saturday, with a few
less showers as high pressure descends from our north closer to the
forecast area. The high will begin to establish a bit of a wedge
pattern as it enters and settles into PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
...As of 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...

Key Messages:

1) Cooler temperatures persist, but moderate back towards normal
during the week

2) Wedge eroded by midweek front

Temperatures will remain cooler than they have been of late, with
some assistance from a weak wedge forming due to a surface high to
the northeast of the forecast area. However, temperatures will be
moderating slowly back towards normal during the week. Rain chances
will be low to start the week, but as a front advances through the
TN Valley, it will begin to move off  the high pressure area and
erode the wedge, increasing rain chances daily throughout the week.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 250 AM EDT Thursday...

Rain showers with some embedded thunderstorms were moving up
from central NC this morning along with a weak short wave and
weak LLJ. This should stay away from TAF sites and gradually
weaken as it moves north. LIFR to MVFR ceilings and visibilities
in fog and stratus will continue this morning, improving around
14Z for a few hours. Additional +TSRA will develop around noon
near BLF and LWB, and a little later for the remaining TAF
terminals. This will continue into the evening, and will
gradually weaken after 01/02Z. A front will push N to S across
the area late tonight, with some clearing possible in the NC
piedmont. Otherwise, expect dense fog and stratus once again
through mid morning Friday.

Southerly winds today become northerly tonight into Friday.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

A deepening trough overhead and the proximity of the front and
plenty of moisture will trigger more showers and storms for
Friday and Friday night. Should see additional widespread
fog/some stratus Friday morning, then VFR expected for the most
part Saturday through Monday. May see a few isolated afternoon
storms over the southern Blue Ridge during that time.

Winds turn more ENE for the weekend through Monday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SH
NEAR TERM...SH
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...SH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
602 AM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025

NCZ005-VAZ007-009>014-017>020-022>024-033>035-043-WVZ042>044-507-508-
011015-
Rockingham-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Floyd-
Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Franklin-
Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-
Western Greenbrier-
602 AM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
central Virginia, south central Virginia, southwest Virginia, west
central Virginia and southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall leading to localized
flash flooding today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall leading to localized
flash flooding Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are requested to report any flooding in their area.

NCZ001>004-018>020-VAZ015-016-032-011015-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Watauga-Wilkes-Yadkin-Grayson-Carroll-
Patrick-
602 AM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina and southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall leading to localized
flash flooding today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall leading to localized
flash flooding Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are requested to report any flooding in their area.

NCZ006-VAZ044>047-058-059-011015-
Caswell-Pittsylvania-Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-
Charlotte-
602 AM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
central Virginia and south central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall leading to localized
flash flooding today.

Hot temperatures and high humidity will result in heat index values
over 100 degrees this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall leading to localized
flash flooding Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are requested to report any flooding in their area.

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