Damaging Winds in Texas, July 31, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
149 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot temperatures up to 105 are forecast this afternoon along the
  I-20 and I-30 corridors of North and East Texas where a Heat
  Advisory is in effect.

- The arrival of a weak cold front late this afternoon will result
  in scattered thunderstorms, with storm chances continuing
  through Sunday. Localized strong to severe downburst winds and
  pockets of heavy rain are possible during this time period.

- A complex of thunderstorms could affect portions of the area
  Sunday night into Monday, before seasonably hot and dry weather
  resumes next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Friday Night/

Main story of the short-term forecast continues to be the heat and
storm chances late this afternoon and evening for portions of
North Texas. Latest surface analysis show a weak cold front making
a slow progression across the Red River. As advertised in
previous discussions, this will serve as the focus of isolated to
scattered showers/storms mainly after 3 pm through around 9-10
pm. Areas generally along/north of I-20 have the best chances to
see this activity before it dissipates late in the evening. Weak
shear and a well-mixed boundary layer will support the rapid
development of isolated slow-moving storms which will be capable
of producing brief heavy downpours. Additionally, some of the
stronger cells may produce strong to severe downburst winds
resulting in pockets of wind damage. The chances are limited but
non-zero. Otherwise, the hot conditions will continue for most
locations across North and Central Texas where widespread highs in
the triple digits are expected, making it the hottest day so far
this summer for most of us.

We're still expecting the front to become nearly stationary along
the I-20 corridor tonight into tomorrow. Scattered showers and
storms are expected to develop during the day tomorrow, especially
in the afternoon with the help of daytime heating and an upper
level wave. A few strong storms are possible with gusty winds.
Given that the environment will also support slow moving
showers/storms or multiple rounds of precipitation, there will be
a conditional threat for localized heavy rain and flooding.
Probabilities of localized rainfall totals of at least 4 inches
(through Saturday morning) are being highlighted in the latest
HREF for areas generally east of I-35 and north of I-30. It is
worth keeping an eye on the trends as the forecast continues to be
adjusted.

Areas south of the boundary, mainly east of I-35 and south of
I-20 may still reach heat advisory criteria with heat indices near
105-107. Model trends will be monitored tonight and heat products
may be issued for these areas in coordination with our WFO
neighbors. Otherwise, highs tomorrow will likely stay in the mid
to upper 90s for most locations with the exception of areas along
the Red River where low 90s are forecast.

Sanchez

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Weekend through Mid Next Week/

Periods of showers and storms are forecast through the weekend as
the upper ridge remains over northern Mexico and the southwest US.
The combination of the lingering surface boundary and north flow
aloft and passing disturbances will support the development of at
least scattered rain on Saturday and more isolated activity on
Sunday. The clouds and rain will help keep the temperatures in
the low 90s on Saturday with a few locations across the northeast
staying in the upper 80s. Temperatures will gradually warm up
Sunday into next week, but at least it won't be as hot as this
week. We are also monitoring the potential for another storm
complex to move south from Oklahoma Sunday night into Monday
which will bring at least low rain chances for North Texas. After
that, the upper ridge will make its way back into our region with
the return of mostly dry weather and seasonably hot temperatures.

Sanchez

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

Concerns...potential for VCTS late this afternoon and evening.
Another round of scattered convection Friday afternoon.

VFR conditions will continue through the period with a mix of
daytime cumulus and high clouds. Latest guidance still shows a
weak cold front slowly moving across the North Texas sites this
evening. Isolated to scattered convection is still expected to
develop mainly north of the sites between 22-04Z. Some of this
activity may briefly impact some of the sites between 23-03Z
before coverage decreases and the activity diminishes tonight. In
addition to the lightning threat, gusty/erratic winds are
possible near any storms that develop. Outside of any convection,
winds will remain light and variable through the evening before
northeast winds settle and continue through tomorrow.

The surface boundary is expected to become nearly stationary over
the area tomorrow and will serve as a focus for another round of
scattered showers and storms in the afternoon and evening.
Confidence in the timing and coverage remains too low to add any
mention of VCTS at this time.

Sanchez

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    80  96  76  92  75 /  20  30  30  30   5
Waco                77  99  76  94  76 /   5  20  30  40  10
Paris               74  91  72  87  69 /  30  50  40  30   5
Denton              77  95  73  92  73 /  20  40  30  30   5
McKinney            76  95  73  90  72 /  20  40  30  30   5
Dallas              81  98  76  93  76 /  20  30  30  30   5
Terrell             76  96  73  90  72 /  10  40  40  40   5
Corsicana           77 100  76  94  75 /   5  30  30  50  10
Temple              75 100  75  96  74 /   5  20  30  40  20
Mineral Wells       76  95  73  95  72 /  20  30  20  20   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ093>095-100>107-
115>123-131>135-145-146.

&&