Slow moving showers and thunderstorms amidst weak flow aloft resulted in flooding and flash flooding across portions of northern Virginia. Localized rainfall totals of two to four inches in about 90 minutes were observed along and north of I-66 towards the Potomac River.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LWX wrote it up.
Slow moving showers and thunderstorms amidst weak flow aloft resulted in flooding and flash flooding across portions of northern Virginia. Localized rainfall totals of two to four inches in about 90 minutes were observed along and north of I-66 towards the Potomac River.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Baltimore/Washington wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 12, 2:55 PM EST, 1 hour 10 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 355 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain in place offshore through the upcoming week. A weakening cold front will move through on Monday, before stalling out and dissipating. A stronger cold front will approach from the northwest by next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A very warm and humid airmass remains in place across the area today, with isolated showers and thunderstorms ongoing. It's expected that activity should remain isolated through the remainder of the afternoon, with an overall lack of forcing on the synoptic scale, and the presence of mid-level dry air evident on the 12z IAD sounding. Flow aloft is very weak, so storms have been relatively disorganized and driven by outflows. This will continue to be the case through the remainder of the afternoon and evening, before activity winds down after dark. The background environment is rather favorable for downburst winds, with around 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 900-1300 J/kg of DCAPE present per SPC mesoanalysis. SPC has much of the area outlooked in a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms. Storms will also be capable of producing heavy rainfall. With heavy rainfall rates and slow storm motions, an instance or two of flash flooding may also be possible. However, the presence of ample DCAPE suggests that storms may have strong enough outflow to rapidly stabilize the boundary layer, potentially limiting the time that a storm may be able to persist in any single location. Activity should gradually wind down through the evening hours with loss of daytime heating, giving way to dry conditions during the second half of the night. Low clouds will move in to the east of Blue Ridge, and some patchy fog may be possible as well, especially to the west of the Blue Ridge. Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A potent shortwave and associated area of low pressure at the surface will track northeastward toward Hudson Bay tomorrow. We'll actually experience slight height rises aloft as this occurs, but the low-level mass response associated with the surface low will lead to increased moisture (PWATs increasing to near or above 2 inches) and low-level convergence. Model guidance is in good agreement that storms will develop along a well-defined surface trough over the Potomac Highlands and Shenandoah Valley during the early to mid afternoon hours. Those storms will then slowly track eastward, reaching the US-15 corridor by around 5 or 6 PM, and then start to weaken as they approach the I-95 corridor around sunset. Model soundings show around 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE, around 600-800 J/kg of DCAPE, 10-15 knots of effective bulk shear, and PWAT values increasing to near 2 inches. The lower DCAPE values may temper the potential for downbursts in storms tomorrow, but the overall higher coverage of storms and higher PWAT values may still make water loaded downbursts possible. SPC currently has much of the area outlooked in a Marginal Risk for severe storms. With PWAT values approaching 2 inches and significant instability present, storms should be capable of producing very heavy rainfall. That coupled with slow storm motions may make flash flooding possible tomorrow as well. WPC has much of the area outlooked in a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall tomorrow. A decaying cold front associated with Sunday's system will drop southward into the area on Monday, before eventually stalling out. Various sources of guidance differ with respect to where this boundary will set up, but additional showers and thunderstorms appear likely along and southeast of the boundary within the deepest moisture. Continued heat and humidity will persist Sunday into Monday, with high temperatures around 90, low temperatures around 70, and dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... An active weather pattern looks to continue through the end of next week, with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. Mid-level ridging centers over the Carolinas by mid to late week as the axis of the Bermuda High builds toward the southwest Atlantic. The stalled frontal boundary over the area Tuesday lifts north as a warm front. The region then remains in a hot and humid airmass the rest of the week as numerous shortwave troughs traverse overhead. The moist airmass could favor thunderstorms capable of producing heavy downpours and localized flooding. Depending on the location or development of local mesoscale features, there could be some possible strong to severe storms. While uncertain at this time, Tuesday and Wednesday look to have the best chance for that. Highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s, with heat indices in the low 100s. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Prevailing VFR conditions are expected this afternoon into this evening. Temporary drops to sub-VFR conditions may be possible in thunderstorms. Overall, the coverage of storms is expected to be low, so have opted for PROB30s (MRB, CHO, IAD, DCA) or no mention at all (BWI, MTN) this afternoon. Any thunderstorms should gradually wind down through the evening hours. Low clouds will move in during the second half of the night tonight, with IFR conditions possible late tonight through the first half of tomorrow morning. Conditions should gradually improve back to VFR by the late morning/early afternoon hours. Coverage of thunderstorms is expected to be much higher tomorrow, with MRB, CHO, IAD, and DCA being the most likely to experience impacts. Storms could potentially weaken or dissipate altogether before reaching BWI and MTN. Showers and thunderstorms may also be possible on Monday, with CHO standing the greatest chance. Winds will be out of the southeast through the day tomorrow, before becoming light and somewhat variable in the vicinity of a decaying cold front on Monday. Daily afternoon to evening showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast through the middle of next week. These storms could produce brief periods of sub-VFR conditions if they move over a terminal. Outside of shower/thunderstorm activity, VFR conditions prevail. && .MARINE... Sub-SCA level southeasterly winds are expected through Sunday, before winds become light and variable on Monday. SMWs in association with thunderstorms may be possible each afternoon or evening through Monday, but coverage of storms should be low today, and there's a good chance that storms may decay tomorrow evening before reaching the Bay. Southerly winds around 10 knots prevail Tuesday into Wednesday. Daily afternoon to evening thunderstorms could be a hazard to mariners with gusty winds and lighting strikes likely. Southerly channeling Wednesday night could bring winds near SCA levels over the open waters of the Chesapeake Bay. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A prolonged period of southeasterly winds will lead to elevated tidal anomalies over the weekend and into early next week. This carries most of the tidal locations into Action stage, particularly during the higher of the two astronomical high tide cycles. Sensitive locations, such as Annapolis, are forecast to hit Minor stage during the high tide cycle Sunday and Monday mornings. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && SYNOPSIS...KJP NEAR TERM...KJP SHORT TERM...KJP LONG TERM...KRR AVIATION...KJP/KRR MARINE...KJP/KRR TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 401 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ008-011-013-014-016>018-504-506-508- VAZ053>057-527-132015- Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD- Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD- Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA- Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD- Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD- Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA- Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor- Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay- Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River- Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD- Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth Island-District of Columbia-Cecil-Southern Baltimore- Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard- Southeast Harford-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria- Stafford-Spotsylvania-King George- Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- 401 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Maryland portion of the Chesapeake Bay, Tidal Potomac River, and I-95 corridor through central Maryland, northern Virginia, and District of Columbia. .DAY ONE...Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday Isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding are possible Sunday afternoon and evening, potentially lingering into Monday. A few severe thunderstorms are also possible which may bring damaging wind gusts. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. MDZ003>006-503-505-507-VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-501-502-505>508- 526-WVZ050>053-055-132015- Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Northwest Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford-Augusta- Rockingham-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke-Nelson- Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper- Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun- Eastern Loudoun-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge- Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Northwest Prince William-Hampshire- Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-Hardy- 401 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern West Virginia, northern and central Virginia, and central and western Maryland. .DAY ONE...Tonight A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon to evening, with damaging winds as the main threat. Additionally, slow moving thunderstorms producing heavy rainfall could result in a few instances of flash flooding. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday Isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding are possible Sunday afternoon and evening, potentially lingering into Monday. A few severe thunderstorms are also possible which may bring damaging wind gusts. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. MDZ501-502-509-510-VAZ503-504-WVZ501>506-132015- Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany- Western Garrett-Eastern Garrett-Western Highland-Eastern Highland- Western Grant-Eastern Grant-Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral- Western Pendleton-Eastern Pendleton- 401 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Allegheny Front counties in western Maryland, eastern West Virginia, and Highland County Virginia. .DAY ONE...Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday Isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding are possible Sunday afternoon and evening, potentially lingering into Monday. A few severe thunderstorms are also possible which may bring damaging wind gusts. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
218 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0135 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg 2 WNW North Garden 37.95N 78.66W
07/12/2025 Albemarle VA 911 Call Center
5 trees down in the 4000 block of Monocan Trail Road
&&
Event Number LWX2506091
BROPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
310 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0228 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg Scottsville 37.80N 78.49W
07/12/2025 Albemarle VA 911 Call Center
4 different reports of downed trees across Scottsville.
&&
Event Number LWX2506094
BROThe Sterling radar (KLWX), 16 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:07 UTC.
9 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
WTOP reporter noted 1.5 to 3 feet of standing water underneath the 267 Toll Road at Hunter Mill Road.
A 9 foot rise from 228 feet to 237 feet in 1 hour was observed between 425 and 525 PM at the stream gauge Hunter Mill Estates Regional Pond.
Reports of 6 inches of flowing water across Browns Mill Road where Difficult Run River runs.
Water from Lick Branch flowing across Catharpin Road between Catharpin Way and Executive Drive.
Lawyers Road closed at Soapstone Lane due to at least six to twelve inches of water flowing across the road.
At least 6 to 8 inches of flowing water on VA-28 around 1 mile south of Westfields Blvd. Road is closed.
At least 6 inches of water flowing across the road along Pageland Lane between Artemus Road.
Approximately 6 to 12 inches of water flowing over US-29 just to the west of Pleasant Valley Rd.
At least 12 inches of water reported flowing across Fairfax Station Road near Piney Branch.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Virginia in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Virginia, July 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1262840, 1262841, 1262842, 1262843, 1262844, 1262845, 1262846, 1262850, 1262851.