A few severe thunderstorms popped up over western to north-central Maryland, and in north-central Virginia in the vicinity of a lee side pressure trough.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LWX wrote it up.
A few severe thunderstorms popped up over western to north-central Maryland, and in north-central Virginia in the vicinity of a lee side pressure trough.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Baltimore/Washington wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 12, 9:43 AM EST, 2 hours 52 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1043 AM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Weak surface high pressure builds to the southwest through the weekend as cold front approaches the forecast area. The cold front pushes through the region on Monday before stalling to the south through midweek. Another front approaches from the west at the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Mid-morning update: No major changes have been made to the previous forecast. The 12z IAD sounding shows very moist low- levels and impressive instability for a morning sounding (MLCAPE of 1800 J/kg). A notable mid-level warm nose/dry layer is present around 600 hPa, which could cause updrafts to struggle to grow vertically, at least initially. Model guidance shows that dissipating over time, which should allow convective activity to deepen moving into this afternoon. The background environment should be rather favorable for localized downburst winds with any thunderstorms that form, with high CAPE (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) and high DCAPE (900-1200 J/kg) in place, but overall coverage of activity should remain low in the absence of any large scale forcing. Initial development will mostly be tied to terrain, and activity today should be rather disorganized with very little flow in place through the depth of the column. Storms will be slow moving and capable of producing heavy rainfall, so an isolated instance of flash flooding can't be ruled out. However, the presence of ample DCAPE suggests that storms may have strong enough outflow to rapidly stabilize the boundary layer, potentially limiting the time that a storm may be able to persist in any one given location. Activity should gradually wind down through the evening hours with loss of daytime heating. Previous discussion follows... Showers and thunderstorm chances continue this afternoon with a hot and humid airmass overhead. With surface high pressure building to the southwest, there will be minimal forcing aloft leading to isolated/scattered and disorganized convective activity. Due to plenty of instability with hot and humid conditions, some storms may become strong to severe with the primary hazard being damaging wind gusts in the form of downbursts. The Storm Prediction Center has portions of the area along and west of the Blue Ridge in a Marginal Risk for severe weather. Isolated instance of flooding are possible with the Weather Prediction Center having the area in a Marginal risk for excessive rainfall. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s for most with heat indices rising into the upper 90s. Overnight low temperatures will be in the upper 60s to low 70s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Shower and thunderstorms chances increase on Sunday as a cold front approaches from the west. Warm and humid conditions continue with showers and thunderstorm chances increasing in the afternoon during peak daytime heating. Convective activity will be more widespread compared to Saturday with most of the forecast area in a Marginal Risk of severe weather from SPC. Within strong to severe thunderstorms, wind will be the primary hazard due to a threat of downbursts. In addition to the severe threat, the Weather Prediction center has portions of the forecast area in a Slight Risk for excessive rain with PWATS nearing or exceeding 2 inches in the afternoon. Isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding are possible, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours. Come Monday, a cold front is forecast to push through the forecast area bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms. The front will move through the area Monday evening into the overnight. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are possible with some being strong to severe. There remains a uncertainty regarding the severe weather forecast for Monday. Lingering cloud cover from convection on Sunday could inhibit daytime heating and thus lead to convection struggling to initiate. Temperatures Sunday and Monday will be in the 80s for most with isolated locations reaching the 90s. Overnight low temperatures will be in the 60s to 70s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Typical mid-summer conditions will persist through next week, with heat and humidity, as well as daily chances for showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. Synoptically speaking, a Bermuda high will remain in place offshore, while the core of the jet stream remains displaced off to our north across southern Canada. While some low-amplitude disturbances located to the south of the upper jet could potentially impact the area over the course of the week, predictability of such features at such long time horizons is very low. While each day will feature chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms, coverage is expected to be highest on Friday as a trough and associated cold front at the surface start to approach from the Great Lakes. High temperatures will generally be around 90, with low temperatures in the upper 60s and lower 70s. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions and light southeasterly winds are expected through the remainder of the day. Showers and thunderstorms will form across the area this afternoon into this evening, but areal coverage is expected to be rather low, so have maintained PROB30s for now. Low clouds are expected to move in later tonight, with IFR ceilings possible. Those IFR ceilings should lift by around mid- morning tomorrow. Higher coverage of showers and thunderstorms are expected tomorrow afternoon. Winds remain out of the southeast both days at around 5-10 knots. A cold front pushes across the terminals late Monday evening into the overnight with showers and thunderstorms possible. Within showers and thunderstorms, gusty winds, frequent lightning, and flight restrictions are expected. Winds shift from southeasterly to northwesterly in the wake of the frontal passage. Prevailing VFR conditions are expected on both Tuesday and Wednesday, but an afternoon or evening thunderstorms may be possible either day. Light and variable winds to start on Tuesday will become light out of the south by later Tuesday into Wednesday. && .MARINE... Light winds are expected through the weekend over the waters with high pressure building to the southwest. Winds remain below SCA criteria each day. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are possible Saturday and Sunday, with the greatest chances for precipitation staying west of the waters. Chances for thunderstorms over the waters increases on Monday as a cold front pushes through Monday evening and into the overnight. SMWs are possible during strong to severe thunderstorms. Sub-SCA level winds are expected over the waters on both Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds will be light and variable to start on Tuesday, before turning out of the south later Tuesday into Wednesday. SMWs may be needed either afternoon or evening as a result of thunderstorms. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A prolonged period of southerly winds will lead to elevated tidal anomalies over the weekend and into early next week. This carries most of the tidal locations into Action stage, particularly during the higher of the two astronomical high tide cycles. Sensitive locations, such as Annapolis, are forecast to hit Minor stage during the high tide cycle Sunday and Monday mornings. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && SYNOPSIS...AVS NEAR TERM...AVS/KJP SHORT TERM...AVS LONG TERM...KJP AVIATION...AVS/KJP MARINE...AVS/KJP TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1026 AM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ008-011-013-014-016>018-504-506-508- VAZ053>057-527-131430- Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD- Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD- Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA- Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD- Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD- Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA- Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor- Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay- Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River- Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD- Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth Island-District of Columbia-Cecil-Southern Baltimore- Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard- Southeast Harford-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria- Stafford-Spotsylvania-King George- Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- 1026 AM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Maryland portion of the Chesapeake Bay, Tidal Potomac River, and I-95 corridor through central Maryland, northern Virginia, and District of Columbia. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday Isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding are possible Sunday afternoon and evening, potentially lingering into Monday. A few severe thunderstorms are also possible which may bring damaging wind gusts. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. MDZ003>006-503-505-507-VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-501-502-505>508- 526-WVZ050>053-055-131430- Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Northwest Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford-Augusta- Rockingham-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke-Nelson- Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper- Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun- Eastern Loudoun-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge- Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Northwest Prince William-Hampshire- Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-Hardy- 1026 AM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern West Virginia, northern and central Virginia, and central and western Maryland. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon to evening, with damaging winds as the main threat. Additionally, slow moving thunderstorms producing heavy rainfall could result in a few instances of flash flooding. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday Isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding are possible Sunday afternoon and evening, potentially lingering into Monday. A few severe thunderstorms are also possible which may bring damaging wind gusts. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. MDZ501-502-509-510-VAZ503-504-WVZ501>506-131430- Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany- Western Garrett-Eastern Garrett-Western Highland-Eastern Highland- Western Grant-Eastern Grant-Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral- Western Pendleton-Eastern Pendleton- 1026 AM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Allegheny Front counties in western Maryland, eastern West Virginia, and Highland County Virginia. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday Isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding are possible Sunday afternoon and evening, potentially lingering into Monday. A few severe thunderstorms are also possible which may bring damaging wind gusts. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
The Sterling radar (KLWX), 154 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 17:35 UTC.
6 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Five trees blew down in the 4000 block of US-29 Monocan Trail Road.
There were four reports of trees blown down in Scottsville.
Two trees blew down just west of Lahore on VA-629 Lahore Road.
Two trees blew down near Thornhill.
A tree blew down into the roadway on Kettle Pond Lane near VA-7 Leesburg Pike.
A large tree blew down in the 11400 block of Drop Forge Lane.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Virginia in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Virginia, July 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1269161, 1269162, 1269164, 1269165, 1269167, 1269169.