An isolated thunderstorm initially developed over northwestern Hale County and drifted to the southeast over Hale Center (Hale County). As this storm passed over Hale Center, it produced very heavy rainfall.
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The episode as NWS LUB wrote it up.
An isolated thunderstorm initially developed over northwestern Hale County and drifted to the southeast over Hale Center (Hale County). As this storm passed over Hale Center, it produced very heavy rainfall. Although no known gauges existed in Hale Center at the time, an estimated three inches of rain fell within 30 minutes. Local broadcast media relayed a video of numerous vehicles stranded in flood waters on Interstate-27 at the Cleveland Street underpass in Hale Center.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lubbock, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 18, 5:31 PM CST, 59 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 631 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 628 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 - A few thunderstorms will continue through this evening, primarily across the far southern Texas Panhandle. - Storm chances return Saturday into Sunday morning, followed by hotter temperatures. - Low storm chances continue into early next week, with a cold front arriving late Monday into Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 16Z upper air analysis depicts a complex, wavy pattern over North America, characterized by an increasingly basal, shortwave trough that is accompanied by two well-defined vorticity lobes embedded within it that exhibit gyre-like behavior. This shortwave trough is trapped at the base of a northern-stream, high-amplitude ridge extending poleward along the border of Manitoba and Saskatchewan, and will serve as the impetus for its gradual decay over the next 24+ hours. Farther southwest, a remnant cyclone is impinging on a low-amplitude, shortwave ridge over that is centered over the Great Basin. The position of these features have allowed the 250 mb jet streak, objectively analyzed at 75 kt on the 12Z UA charts, to translate southeastward over the southern Rocky Mountains and emerge into the south-central Great Plains as it rounds the base of the shortwave trough over the OK/TX PH region. A narrow corridor of moist, isentropic ascent is becoming increasingly scant on recent water-vapor imagery, but it should be maintained through the rest of the day, as the shortwave troughing will be slow to progress as it becomes more-basal and the jet streak translates eastward. The band of showers and thunderstorms earlier this morning has succumbed to entrainment, but the mesoscale boundary will linger throughout the day over the far southern TX PH as the mid-level cloud debris advects eastward. At the surface, a slow-moving cold front has become quasi-stationary across the southern South and Rolling Plains, and maintains modest baroclinity from the weak, convective-reinforcement from convection over the TX PH last night. Winds have started to veer eastward in the far southern TX PH, while remaining out of the south on the south side of the front, although convergence was weak. Despite the light winds and related CAA post-FROPA, differential heating was substantial, with a 15 degree gradient in temperatures from Friona to Aspermont (i.e., 66 degrees to 81 degrees based on recent WTM data). High temperatures will range from the lower 80s across the far southwestern TX PH to the lower 90s in the Rolling Plains this afternoon, as the quasi-stationary front will slosh slightly northward due to weak cyclogenesis along the front, causing winds to shift poleward across most of the CWA this afternoon. Isolated-to-widely-scattered showers and storms are forecast to develop across the far southern TX PH, and the northern South and Rolling Plains, as the quasi-stationary front and remnant mesoscale boundary serve as the foci for low-level convergence and allow the surface-based cu to reach the LFC. NBM PoPs were tweaked and capped at isolated, as coverage is expected to be widely-scattered at best due to the increasing confluence on the backside of the trough advecting over W TX by the late-evening hours. The presence of the 250 mb jet streak will provide enough divergent outflow to sustain storms for a couple of hours, with storms drifting towards the southeast before collapsing upon nocturnal stabilization of the airmass. Locally strong-to-marginally-severe wind gusts will accompany storms that become briefly organized, but the risk for severe storms is otherwise low. Storm chances will extinguish prior to midnight as the boundary-layer decouples, with winds becoming light and variable area-wide. The effects of radiational cooling will maximize after the anvil debris advects to the southeast of the CWA, with similar morning lows compared to this past morning. By Friday morning, the pair of vorticity lobes embedded within the attenuating shortwave trough will have merged over the James River Valley. An upstream PV anomaly propagating across the Medicine Line will induce a negative tilt to the trough, causing the shortwave ridge over the Rocky Mountains to also shift eastward into the Great Plains while also dampening in amplitude. Fair weather is expected area-wide Friday, with slightly warmer temperatures, as deep mixing of the airmass will occur beneath rising geopotential heights. Sincavage && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 A split-flow pattern will persist over the nation this weekend, with an amplifying, southern-stream jet streak forecast to emerge over the southern Rocky Mountains and into W TX Saturday. Shortwave perturbations generated by the remnant low previously rotating into the Great Basin, will become absorbed into the anticyclonic belt of flow and translate through the apex of the ridge. The timing of the ejection of the leading shortwave perturbation will dictate the onset of PoPs (in the form of elevated showers and storms), and PoPs were removed for the predawn hours Saturday, as it appears that this will occur after sunrise Saturday. Steering flow will align towards the northwest as the leading edge of the 250 mb jet streak noses towards the I-35 corridor, with lee cyclogenesis forecast to be ongoing near the Raton Mesa throughout the day. The best chances for storms are currently across the Rolling Plains beneath the left-exit region of the 250 mb jet streak, with lesser coverage farther west onto the Caprock since surface flow will remained veered relative to the position of the lee cyclone. NBM PoPs continue to handle the overnight PoPs into Sunday morning reasonably well, and have been maintained with this forecast cycle as shortwave perturbations will continue to translate through the mean flow aloft. Subtropical ridging will continue to amplify over the southern Rocky Mountains by the end of the weekend and into early next week, as a pronounced PV anomaly deflects off an intense jet streak nosing over western Canada. Significant discrepancies arise among the global NWP guidance suites on the synoptic-scale state of the atmosphere by the middle of next week, but given the active wavenumber pattern to the west of the CWA, it seems that northwesterly flow may return towards the tail-end of the forecast period. NBM reflects an earlier arrival of the cold front (i.e., Monday), but until guidance converges, the confidence in PoPs, the timing of the front, and temperatures beyond Monday remain low due to limited predictability. Sincavage && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 628 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 A few isolated TS will continue for the next few hours, and may approach PVW and CDS (with lesser chances at LBB), before dissipating by 05z. A brief period of strong and erratic winds will be possible near convection this evening. Otherwise, VFR and light winds will prevail. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SHORT TERM...09 LONG TERM....09 AVIATION...30
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1241 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 TXZ021>044-191745- Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd- Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum- Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall- 1241 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. A few thunderstorms are forecast to develop late this afternoon evening, primarily across the far southern Texas Panhandle. The severe weather threat is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Storm chances return Saturday into Sunday morning, and will last through early Tuesday. The severe weather threat is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
702 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
TXZ029-190030-
Hale TX-
702 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL HALE COUNTY THROUGH 730
PM CDT...
At 702 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles southeast of Halfway, or 5 miles northwest of Hale Center,
moving east at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Hale Center.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, seek shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3407 10196 3422 10193 3424 10176 3403 10177
TIME...MOT...LOC 0002Z 285DEG 12KT 3414 10189
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
DWKThe Lubbock radar (KLBB), 46 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 00:29 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Local broadcast media relayed a video of flooding on Interstate-27 at the Cleveland Street underpass in Hale Center. The video also showed numerous vehicles stranded in flooded waters on the Interstate Highway.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
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NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1285132.