A shortwave trough interacted with ample moisture over West Texas, producing scattered convection during the morning/early afternoon hours in the Permian Basin. Later in the afternoon, isolated to widely scattered supercells developed over the Trans-Pecos and Permian Basin.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MAF wrote it up.
A shortwave trough interacted with ample moisture over West Texas, producing scattered convection during the morning/early afternoon hours in the Permian Basin. Later in the afternoon, isolated to widely scattered supercells developed over the Trans-Pecos and Permian Basin. Between these two rounds, a couple of near-severe to severe hail reports were received.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Midland/Odessa, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 23, 12:00 PM CST, 40 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1200 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1148 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 - Isolated strong to severe storms capable of producing quarter size hail, strong wind, and brief heavy rainfall will be possible over the Permian Basin, Trans Pecos, and Big Bend region this afternoon and evening. - A strong cold front brings near to below average temperatures to the area by Thanksgiving. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday afternoon) Issued at 240 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 Today and into Monday afternoon, an upper-level ridging gives way to an upper-low making its way from the Desert Southwest into the central Great Plains. This system sets the stage for stormy weather today through Monday evening. Lift and deep-layer shear increases ahead of the approaching trough this morning. Meanwhile, an area of surface high pressure is currently centered over northeastern Oklahoma, steering Gulf moisture out of the southeast toward our direction. Rain chances today range between 10-80%. Those west of the Pecos River will have the lowest odds, at 10-40%. Areas east of the Pecos will see rain chances between 40-80%, with the best odds over the northeastern Permian Basin this afternoon. Provided sufficient instability and shear, a couple of storms may be strong to severe within the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos this afternoon. The primary threats with any severe storms that develop will be large hail (greatest threat), gusty winds, and locally heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding. Highs today are forecast to reach into the 60s over most of southeast New Mexico, the Permian Basin, and the higher terrain, with 70s expected elsewhere. Later this afternoon and into the evening, rain chances gradually taper off from west to east, as the storm system's jet max begins to depart to our northeast. The eastern half of the region will see rain chances between 20-70% this evening, with the highest chances over the eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. Shower/storm activity looks to clear out of our area by Monday morning as a Pac front sweeps across the CWA. Southwesterly and westerly winds become moderately strong over the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains this afternoon through Monday afternoon due to both the upper-level trough and the Pac front passing through. However, winds look to remain below High Wind criteria. Otherwise, temperatures tonight will settle into the lower 40s to mid 50s. Highs Monday afternoon are expected to range between the mid 60s to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 240 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 The upper low that will have brought a smattering of rainfall to portions of the CWA will move off to the northeast by Tuesday morning. Drier air from a Pacific front will bring rain chances to zero and a cold front moving through on Wednesday will bring near to below normal temperatures. Thanksgiving continues to look like a fairly typical fall day in West Texas. Near normal temperatures in the 60s with lows in the 40s that evening. Another upper low begins to make its way towards the region out of the Desert Southwest by Friday, but it remains to be seen if ample moisture will be accompanied by this disturbance. Rain chances remain low (<10%) into next weekend to end November and begin December. -Stickney && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1148 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 Satellite imagery and surface observations show a persistent area of MVFR ceilings impacting far southeast NM and the Permian Basin/ Lower Trans Pecos region, including the KHOB and KMAF terminals just prior to 18Z. Ceilings may scatter at KHOB by 19Z but may persist around KMAF for at least the next few hours, if not into the late afternoon/evening. Scattered to numerous SHRA and TSRA are expected to develop over far southeast NM and the Upper Trans Pecos by 19-20Z before spreading into the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos region this afternoon and evening. Some storms will produce localized MVFR to IFR conditions with heavy rain, along with potential for hail and strong/erratic gusts. Storms may persist over the eastern Basin through late tonight, with potential for another round of MVFR to localized IFR ceilings near and east of KMAF. VFR otherwise becomes prevalent across the rest of the region this evening/tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 64 49 71 40 / 70 50 0 0 Carlsbad 71 44 70 39 / 20 0 0 0 Dryden 70 57 80 47 / 20 40 0 0 Fort Stockton 78 50 73 45 / 30 30 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 61 41 58 40 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 67 40 67 38 / 40 0 0 0 Marfa 72 36 64 31 / 10 10 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 67 49 71 43 / 70 30 0 0 Odessa 66 49 70 43 / 70 30 0 0 Wink 72 44 70 38 / 60 10 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && SHORT TERM...95 LONG TERM....93 AVIATION...21
The Lubbock radar (KLBB), 105 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:41 UTC.
2 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Snyder Fire Department reported nickel-size hail in Fluvanna. The time of occurrence is partially estimated from radar.
A video was shared by the public on social media of nickel to quarter-size hail covering the side of the road and in grassy areas along FM 2371 west of Andrews. The time of occurrence is estimated from radar.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, November 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1296342, 1296343.