Flood in Texas, November 23, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
518 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 514 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

- Scattered showers and storms today associated with a lingering
  weak front.

- Another system to bring showers and thunderstorms on Monday to
  northern portions of the area.

- A stronger cold front should push through by midweek, bringing
  noticeably cooler and drier conditions just in time for
  Thanksgiving.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1203 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

A lingering weak frontal boundary will continue to promote isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms through Sunday. Limited
instability and only moderate moisture should keep rainfall amounts
generally below 0.50 inch. By afternoon, strengthening onshore flow
will lift the boundary back to the north, allowing warmer and more
humid air to spread inland. This airmass will support a gradual
warming trend, with highs on Monday and Tuesday climbing well above
seasonal averages.

By early next week, a deep upper-level trough shifts from the Four
Corners into the Plains. Strengthening southeasterly flow ahead of
this system will draw the warm front farther north and pull deeper
moisture into the region. However, the stronger forcing and core of
an LLJ will remain displaced to the north of the CWA. As a result,
only, low chances for showers and a few thunderstorms are expected
Monday, mainly across our northernmost counties, while the better
rain chances remain well to our north.

The most notable change to the local forecast arrives midweek as a
cold front sweeps through the area Wednesday morning. This front
will usher in a cooler and slightly drier airmass with ensemble
guidance placing high temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday in the
low to mid-70s. While the coldest air will stay north of our region,
inland lows may dip into the 40s by Thursday morning, with 50s
elsewhere. The front itself will bring only brief, low-end rain
chances, and no meaningful drought relief is expected. Beyond
midweek, stable conditions are in store as a cooler, drier pattern
settles in.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 514 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue
today so have included PROB30 groups at all terminals except VCT
where convection is expected to be limited. IFR ceilings and MVFR
visibility are possible in and around any convection. Otherwise,
MVFR to IFR ceilings this morning are expected to become MVFR to
VFR by midday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1203 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible
today as a quasi-stationary front is draped over the area. Moderate
to fresh (BF 4-5) east-southeasterly winds with occasional strong
(BF 6) gusts will continue through Monday night ahead of the next
approaching system. A brief reprieve is expected on Tuesday with a
gentle breeze (BF 3) before a stronger front is forecast to move
offshore by midweek, turning winds to the north-northeast and
increasing flow to moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) once again.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1203 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Fire weather concerns will remain low through most of the period, as
minimum relative humidity values stay above 40% across the region.
Isolated to scattered showers and storms remain possible through the
next few days, but mainly light amounts are expected. Winds will
increase today through Monday to approximately 10-15 mph with higher
gusts between 20-25 mph due to an enhanced low-level jet and another
approaching frontal boundary. This system could result in additional
low-end rain chances for our northern zones through midweek before a
stronger front surges southward. In the wake of the passing front,
minimum relative humidity is expected to fall to around 30-35%
across portions of the Brush Country and western Coastal Plains.
However, lighter winds post-front should keep fire weather concerns
at bay.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    81  71  85  67 /  50   0  10  10
Victoria          78  66  84  63 /  20  10  30  50
Laredo            87  71  85  64 /  30   0   0   0
Alice             82  68  89  64 /  50   0  10  10
Rockport          81  73  84  69 /  50  10  10  30
Cotulla           79  69  84  59 /  40  10  20   0
Kingsville        81  69  87  66 /  50   0  10  10
Navy Corpus       80  75  82  72 /  60  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...KRS/98
AVIATION...LS/77