A shortwave trough (and associated Pacific front) brought a line of thunderstorms across Southeast New Mexico and into West Texas. This line began to decay as outflow strengthened and outran the convection.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MAF wrote it up.
A shortwave trough (and associated Pacific front) brought a line of thunderstorms across Southeast New Mexico and into West Texas. This line began to decay as outflow strengthened and outran the convection. The outflow boundary yielded blowing dust across the Permian Basin as well as severe wind gusts. Convection eventually redeveloped and a new line formed on the far eastern edge of the CWA, though no severe weather was reported. Otherwise, the Pac front yielded brief high winds (non-convective) in the Guadalupe Mountains.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Midland/Odessa, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 20, 1:07 PM CST, 22 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
107 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 102 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025
- Strong winds over the Guadalupe Mountains this afternoon and
tonight.
- An additional round of scattered showers/storms is expected
today across some portions of the region. Locally heavy
rainfall will be the main threat for the stronger storms.
- Rain chances tapering off from west to east through today with
cooler temperatures and drier weather Friday, then another round
of moderate to high (40% to 65%) shower/storm chances this
weekend.
- Drier weather with occasional breezy winds over higher terrain each
afternoon late weekend into early next week. A strong cold
front midweek brings near to below average temperatures to the
area by Thanksgiving.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 102 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025
Current radar imagery shows light to moderate rain showers across
the southern Permian Basin into the Lower Trans Pecos, along with
a line of showers and thunderstorms over far west Texas.
Additional development of showers and storms are forecast
beginning this afternoon across portions of southeast New Mexico
and west Texas. High resolution guidance has this activity moving
quickly to the east ahead of an approaching Pacific front. The
severe weather threat remains very low due to limited instability.
PWATs remain very high (exceeding the 90th percentile) where
heavy rainfall is expected, especially with the stronger storms.
The flash flood threat remains low given how fast storms will
move, however, if multiple rounds of heavy rainfall train over
similar areas, then flash flooding may occur. Strong (40 mph
sustained winds and near 60 mph gusts) west winds are anticipated
to develop behind the Pacific front over the Guadalupe Mountains
this afternoon lasting through tonight. These winds will make
travel conditions difficult for high profile vehicles especially
near Guadalupe Pass. High temperatures today are expected to reach
the mid 60s to mid 70s for many locations. The peak of these
temperatures were likely seen for many spots earlier this morning,
thanks to the extended cloud cover and precipitation expected
throughout today.
Tonight, the Pacific front moves east of the region, pushing the
rain and storms out of the area. Lows are forecast to span from
mid 30s to mid 40s as cooler and drier air behind the front
entrains over the region. This will set up a more seasonable
weather day across west Texas and southeast New Mexico on Friday
as highs are forecast to be in the low 60s to low 70s. Friday
night into Saturday morning, another upper low moves across
southern California into the Baja California region which will
establish more chances of rain later in the weekend. See the long-
term discussion for more details!
Lamberson
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 102 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025
Beginning on Saturday, an upper storm system over the Pacific and
Desert SW develops east, driving a Pacific cold front and
accompanying focusing of moisture and forcing for ascent east as
well. Low (20% to 30%) rain probabilities over the Concho Valley
into southeast Permian Basin Saturday morning expand northwest and
increase to moderate to high (40% to 65%) by late Saturday
evening. Widespread cloud cover keeps highs a few degrees cooler
compared to Saturday, but maintaining the general 50s F higher
elevations, 60s and 70s F elsewhere setup. Persistent easterly
upslope winds lead to dew point temperatures increasing into the
50s and lower 60s F east of western higher terrain by Saturday
night, inhibiting efficient overnight cooling and resulting in
lows only falling into the 40s and 50s F for most. Rain chances
taper off from west to east Sunday afternoon, and the storm
system's departure induces breezy westerly downsloping winds that
develop, promoting a drying trend for locations east of the
mountains. Amounts by the time rain chances have decreased back to
near zero are still uncertain this far out. Highs Sunday a few
degrees warmer than Saturday are forecast as adiabatic warming
from downsloping winds offsets CAA behind the Pacific cold front.
Lows Sunday night drop back into the 30s and 40s F on
west/northwest winds and dew point temperatures decreasing back
into the 30s and 40s F east of western higher terrain.
In the wake of the weekend storm system, warmer and drier
conditions prevail early next week under southwest flow before
cooler weather again returns to the area by midweek. Monday highs
similar to Sunday apart from 80s F over the Big Bend and lows
again falling into the 30s and 40s F give way to similar highs
Tuesday as ridging holds. Troughing over the central CONUS rapidly
develops a strong cold front over the northern Intermountain
West/Rockies, which quickly progresses into the Southern Great
Plains. Tuesday night lows approach freezing over western higher
terrain and parts of northern Lea County into Permian Basin as
south/west winds shift to north/northeast. The strong cold front
brings a colder air mass to the area by Wednesday, with highs
struggling to rise above 60s F higher elevations and SE NM plains
into most of Permian Basin, lower to mid 60s F, and 70s F limited
to southern Rio Grande basins and Terrell County. By Wednesday
night, lows fall near to below freezing for Lower Trans Pecos,
Davis Mountains and surrounding foothills, basins of Culberson
County, and northern SE NM plains into northern Permian Basin,
with lows remaining chilly but above freezing on northeast slopes
and farther east/south over the Upper Trans Pecos and Permian
Basin and in the upper 30s to mid 40s F elsewhere. By
Thanksgiving, temperatures moderate some back into the 60s and 70s
F for much of the area as timing of cold front has trended to an
earlier passage on Wednesday. Uncertainty remains on how the
upper air pattern and temperatures develop into the Thanksgiving
holiday weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1140 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025
Light to moderate showers are currently ongoing near FST and CNM
terminals. Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to expand
in coverage early this afternoon lasting through the early evening
hours. Therefore, -TSRA PROB30s and TEMPOs were implemented at
most sites where brief periods of MVFR VIS is anticipated. Gusty
southwesterly winds will shift westerly early in the afternoon.
Occasional gusts up to 30-35 kts is in store, before winds
significantly decrease early this evening.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 44 71 41 68 / 20 0 0 10
Carlsbad 42 69 38 66 / 0 0 0 10
Dryden 50 78 51 72 / 10 0 0 20
Fort Stockton 46 73 45 72 / 10 0 0 20
Guadalupe Pass 39 57 42 59 / 0 0 0 10
Hobbs 39 67 37 66 / 0 0 0 10
Marfa 33 67 37 69 / 0 0 0 10
Midland Intl Airport 45 69 43 69 / 10 0 0 20
Odessa 44 68 43 68 / 10 0 0 20
Wink 41 69 39 69 / 0 0 0 20
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Warning until 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ this evening for
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
Mountains.
NM...High Wind Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
Mountains of Eddy County.
&&
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...11The Midland/Odessa radar (KMAF), 110 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:29 UTC.
5 thunderstorm wind, 1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
The Mesonet Station UR226 6.6 W Pyote measured a 60 mph wind gust associated with strong thunderstorm outflow. The total time of occurrence is partially estimated.
The West Texas Mesonet Station 18 Lamesa 2SE measured a 58 mph wind gust associated with strong thunderstorm outflow.
The Mesonet station FW9685 Odessa measured a 60 mph wind gust associated with strong thunderstorm outflow. The total time of occurrence is partially estimated.
The ASOS station KMAF Midland measured a 59 mph wind gust due to strong thunderstorm outflow. The total time of occurrence is partially estimated.
The West Texas Mesonet Station 84 2WNW Tarzan/Martin County measured a 61 mph wind gust associated with strong thunderstorm outflow.
The West Texas Mesonet Station 60 Pine Springs GMNP measured a 58 mph wind gust.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, November 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1296335, 1296336, 1296337, 1296338, 1296339, 1296340.