A short wave trough moving out of northern Mexico into the Southern High Plains brought widespread and intense convection to the South Plains and Rolling Plains of West Texas on the afternoon and evening of the 25th. This short wave trough brought the necessary large scale ascent that was missing the past several days to create the more widespread activity on the 25th.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LUB wrote it up.
A short wave trough moving out of northern Mexico into the Southern High Plains brought widespread and intense convection to the South Plains and Rolling Plains of West Texas on the afternoon and evening of the 25th. This short wave trough brought the necessary large scale ascent that was missing the past several days to create the more widespread activity on the 25th. At the same time, a slow moving cold front was moving southward through the southern Texas Panhandle and a dryline was positioned across the central South Plains. Very warm temperatures in the 90s allowed for rapid destabilization of the atmosphere underneath a weak cap. The cap would be overcome early in the afternoon due to the strong heating. A very moist lower atmosphere also allowed for mixed layer instability values to rise in excess of 2500 J/kg. This led to explosive convective development beginning early in the afternoon. Areas across the Rolling Plains saw a majority of the severe weather this day including a hail stone estimated to be six inches in diameter near Afton (Dickens County). Several swaths of up to baseball size hail were observed across the region. The same storm that produced gargantuan hail also produced severe winds destroying several power poles along US Highway 83 north of Guthrie (King County). A brief tornado was also observed over open ranch land in Dickens County with this supercell thunderstorm. A storm merger in southern Motley County brought extremely heavy rainfall near the Roaring Springs Ranch Club near Texas Highway State 70. As a result, rapid runoff allowed water to flow within the South Pease River (Tongue River) in southern Motley County and was reportedly over the road where this river met Texas State Highway 70.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lubbock, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 25, 1:05 PM CST, 2 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 205 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe thunderstorm threat remains this afternoon and through the evening for much of the forecast area. - Much cooler for Memorial Day behind a cold front, but some showers and thunderstorms possible. - Showers and thunderstorm chances Tuesday and continue through the rest of the week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 202 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025 A complex pattern has set up/is setting up across the forecast area this afternoon, complicated by a series of gravity waves rolling southwestward from western Oklahoma across the southeastern Panhandle and beyond. These gravity waves are giving impetus to the eastern flank of a cold front that has moved southward out of the Panhandle this morning. Said front lies roughly from Muleshoe to Plainview to Guthrie as of 130 PM with a dryline extending southward from Muleshoe to Denver City. There has already been initiation of rather junky convection across the Rolling Plains where the gravity waves are interacting with some mid level instability, but for now the cap is holding. Hi-res models suggest surface-based initiation may occur along the frontal boundary as early 2 to 3 PM while down the dryline that may not occur until 4 to 5 PM. This southward push to the cold front may end up limiting the severe potential in the post-frontal environment, although surface analysis shows some theta- e advection continuing behind the front into the southeastern Panhandle. Still, the focus for higher-end severe may end up being limited to areas along and south of the front and east of the I- 27/US-87 corridor where surface dew point temperatures will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s, resulting CAPE values in excess of 3000 J/kg. Overall, the forecast remains on track for now with little in the way of change needed for tonight. Monday will see a sharp change in the weather across the forecast area. The cold front lying across the area this afternoon will end up surging southward tonight with post-frontal stratus and cooler northeast winds behind it. The stratus has a very good chance of hanging on throughout the day, especially across the eastern half of the forecast area, and NBM high temperatures look a bit too warm given this scenario. Have adjusted toward the cooler MOS values as a result. Showers and thunderstorms will remain a possibility, especially during the afternoon hours as a mid/upper level trough moves off the higher terrain of central Colorado and New Mexico. Instability will be limited in the cooler air mass, but with the incoming lift, appears sufficient to maintain a chance wording for PoPs. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 202 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025 Extended forecast is still on par for cooler temperatures and precipitation chances everyday this week. Upper level forcing from an upper trough axis tracking near the region and a decent amount of instability will aid in generating a few isolated showers and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon through the evening. Severe storms are possible with the primary hazard being large hail. If a surface trough over eastern NM strengthens, a dryline could set up over the region bringing greater chances for severe thunderstorms although, the possibility of this occurring is low. The upper trough will get pulled to the east of the region Tuesday by an upper level cut off low over the upper Midwest. At the same time an upper ridge axis will build over the intermountain west as another cut off low develops off the coast of southern California. Flow aloft will be predominantly zonal through the work week but should shift northeasterly by the weekend as the first cut off low slowly moves east before getting absorbed into northerly flow and the upper ridge continues to build into central CONUS. Abundant low level moisture and upslope surface flow keeps chances of precipitation every day this week. Greater chances of precipitation will be Wednesday and Thursday as embedded shortwave disturbances are expected to track overhead aiding in upper level ascent. Predominate easterly flow will keep temperatures cooler through the week with highs in the 70s to 80s with a gradual warm up this weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025 TS still in the offing late afternoon into the evening as the dryline and cold front are expected to be the foci for TS initiation and development. Given some uncertainties with timing will keep a PROB30 mention for now. Away from TS VFR conditions are expected to persist until early morning hours when MVFR ceilings are expected at all three terminals behind the cold front after it moves southward through the forecast area. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...07
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1128 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025 TXZ021>044-261630- Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd- Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum- Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall- 1128 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon along a cold front located across the extreme southern Texas Panhandle, mainly from the Dimmitt area eastward. These thunderstorms will initially move to the east but should eventually develop into a system that turns to the southeast through the evening hours. More isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is expected southward along the dryline, likely along or just east of the U.S. Highway 385 corridor. These storms will move to the east as well and may eventually merge into the storms moving from the northwest. Some thunderstorms will become severe with all hazards possible, including wind gusts up to 80 mph, hail up to the size of softballs, and a tornados. Heavy rainfall may also result in localized flash flooding. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Thunderstorm chances will continue each day from Monday through next weekend. A few storms may be severe. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will likely be needed.
The Lubbock radar (KLBB), 96 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:07 UTC.
16 hail, 4 thunderstorm wind, 2 flash flood, 1 tornado. Local standard time, as filed.
A swath of hail was observed by numerous storm chasers along Ranch Road 2999 east of Texas State Highway 70 northwest of Matador. Hail ranged in size from quarters to ping pong ball size.
Numerous storm chasers reported a swath of extremely large hail west of Matador along US Highway 62/70. Hail ranged in size from quarter size to three inches in diameter. No damage was included with the reports.
Numerous storm chasers reported a swath of extremely large hail along Farm to Market Road 684 west of Roaring Springs. Hail ranged in size from two inches in diameter to baseball size. No damage was included with the reports.
Several storm chasers and an NWS cooperative weather observer reported a swath of hail in the immediate vicinity of Roaring Springs. Hail ranged in size from quarters to golf ball size.
An NWS cooperative weather observer reported ping pong ball size hail on the northeast side of Matador.
Two supercell thunderstorms merged south of Roaring Springs near Texas State Highway 70. The combined supercell remained nearly stationary over this area for approximately 30 minutes consistently dropping very heavy rainfall before moving eastward. After the initial supercell thunderstorm moved east, additional thunderstorm development upstream moved over the same area bringing further heavy rainfall. The heavy rain mostly affected the Roaring Springs Ranch Club. Water was reported over the roadway along Texas State Highway 70 at the South Pease River (Tongue River) intersection. There was an unknown amount of damage reported within the ranch club as well as water over the highway.
Numerous storm chasers reported a swath of hail that began just north of Afton on Texas State Highway 70 and continued for several miles eastward. Hail ranged in size from two inches in diameter to as large as six inches in diameter. Photographic evidence was posted on social media of a six inch hailstone. No damage was reported at the time.
A storm chaser posted a photograph on social media of a brief tornado over open ranch land.
A storm chaser reported quarter size hail near Dumont.
A Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet site near Aspermont measured severe wind gusts from 1658 CST through 1704 CST. A peak wind gust of 66 mph was measured at 1704 CST.
Several storm chasers reported a swath of broken power poles along US Highway 83 north of Guthrie following the passage of a thunderstorm.
A storm chaser reported golf ball size hail east of Aspermont along US Highway 380.
Several photographs on social media depicted a swath of hail northwest of Silverton near Mackenzie Reservoir along Texas State Highway 207.
Slow moving and repeated rounds of thunderstorms in and around Old Glory brought an extended period of heavy rainfall. A report from mPing indicated water over the roadway along US Highway 380.
A report was received on mPing of half dollar size hail near Old Glory.
A Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet site near Amherst measured severe wind gusts from 1842 CST through 1844 CST. A peak wind gust of 81 mph was measured at 1843 CST.
An emergency management official with White River Lake reported golf ball size hail on the east side of the lake.
Local broadcast media relayed reports of a swath of hail from Olton to three miles east of Olton. Hail ranged in sizes from two inches in diameter to three inches in diameter. At least one car windshield was destroyed in a photograph.
A Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet site near Olton measured severe wind gusts of 58 mph from 1932 CST through 1933 CST.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyThe tornado archive for Texas, 2025Warnings in Texas, May 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1253652, 1253655, 1253656, 1253657, 1253658, 1254187, 1254139, 1254140, 1254141, 1254145, 1254149, 1254162, 1254164, 1254165, 1254186, 1254166, 1254169, 1254176, 1254178, 1254179, 1254183, 1254184, 1254185.