Tornadoes and Damaging Winds in Georgia, May 25, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
443 AM EDT Sun May 25 2025

...Morning Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 237 AM EDT Sun May 25 2025

Current radar loop shows some showers mainly across NW GA moving
East into SC. There is very little instability left so not
expecting any thunderstorms with this loosely organized area of
showers. Once these showers clear the area we will have a few
hours of dry weather before the next wave moves in later this
afternoon. The next wave is currently over AR but it gets caught
in the upper level NWLY flow and pushes rapidly SE into NW GA by
18-20z this afternoon. With this wave moving in during the prime
heating of the day we will see some thunderstorms and possibly
some isolated severe storms. Instability indices get up pretty
good this afternoon with sfc based Capes expected in the 1000-1500
J/Kg range. Once convection starts, the environment will be
supportive of gusty to damaging winds, hail, and locally heavy
rainfall. Convection should remain more isolated to scattered in
nature, i.e not expecting an organized cluster or MCS
development. This NWLY flow continue into Monday with more
moisture and another wave moving into the area. Precip chances
stay elevated through the day with more showers and thunderstorms
expected. Expecting some more isolated severe storms as well.

One difference between Today and Monday is the models are showing
a decent (for this time of year) Wedge building down the eastern
seaboard Monday and into NE GA. The models show this high pressure
wedge building pretty deep into the state so we will have to see
just how strong it is and how much this will affect convective
development.

Temps Today and Monday will be mainly in the 70s across North GA
and to near 90 across central portions of the state. Lows tonight
will be mainly in the 60s.

01

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 237 AM EDT Sun May 25 2025

Key Messages:

  - Wedge/CAD conditions stick around through Tuesday and
potentially into Wednesday in NE GA and portions of the metro. This
will keep highs in the mid 70s to even some 60s in these areas those
days.

  - Multiple rounds of rain and thunderstorms through the entire
week. Some uncertainty on the extent towards the end of the week.

Forecast:

Long term forecast keeps a stormy and potentially soggy look to it,
with multiple rounds of precipitation forecast. Monday night into
Tuesday sees longwave trough exiting the NE CONUS with strong
confluence overspreading the region. Surface high already in place
will only intensify in response, bringing stronger CAD/wedge into
the area Tuesday. Simultaneously on Tuesday, more equatorial of the
vertically stacked waves/PV anomalies over the Great Plains will
push to the NW of the area, bringing SW flow aloft, development of
surface low, and continued moisture surging into the SE. Moisture
overrunning the wedge will likely bring widespread rain with some
embedded convective elements to the area. Will be difficult to see
anything severe with this in northern GA given any convection
wouldnt be surface based, but won't rule out a spicy one down in
central Georgia. Temps will vary in and out of the wedge, with highs
in the 70s in north GA and even 60s in NE GA, but could approach 90
in portions of central Georgia.

Of the two waves/PV anomalies mentioned earlier, the more
poleward one will sit mostly in place through almost the entirety
of the long term forecast. A series of shortwaves will rotate
underneath this, bringing our continued rounds of precipitation to
the state. On Wednesday, another wave will push by bringing
moisture streaming up once again. Euro ensemble and GEFS show some
differences in the setup, with stronger surface low over the Ohio
River Valley in the Euro models and a weak surface low over the
east coast in many of the GEFS models. In the GEFS scenario,
surface low off the coast would potentially help reinforce the
wedge in place on Wednesday, keeping temps in northeast GA lower.
However, Euro bringing some potentially extensive precip and cloud
cover over the top of the wedge would lead to a potential
reinforcement as well despite what models may show with erosion.
Given the well known model biases in too early break down of the
wedge/CAD, have decided to lower temps in the typically NE GA
wedge area on Wednesday. Otherwise, expect another rainy day with
some rumbles of thunder certainly possible.

Towards the end of the week, differences arise in the models. The
stronger surface low in the Euro pushes a front into the area by the
end of the week that stalls, bringing potential rainfall Thursday to
central Georgia, including the potential for some thunderstorms in a
parameter space that may be capable of some severe weather, before
clearing things out on Friday. The GEFS keeps things further to the
north and rotates another wave or two past the area that brings rain
and some potential storms as well both Thursday and Friday to the
entire CWA. Only time will tell as to which is right - models are
deeply struggling with the copious convection over the past few
days, and that has big implications via latent heat release on the
down stream pattern, especially given how sensitive the forecast may
be to the position of the upper level low over the midwest that may
get pushed or prodded a bit by said latent heat release. So, stay
tuned.

Lusk

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 204 AM EDT Sun May 25 2025

Current radar loop shows some scattered showers around the ATL and
AHN area TAF sites. these showers should diminish and move east
of the area over the next few hours. Will have a bit of a break
in the expected precip from shortly before sunrise to later this
afternoon when the next wave moves into the area. Ceilings will be
mainly in the VFR range but expecting some brief periods of MVFR
ceilings in and around any showers and afternoon thunderstorms.
Winds are out of the east and expecting them to turn to the SE and
eventually SW/W. Wind speeds will stay 10kt or less through the
period.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Confidence medium to high on precip and ceiling heights.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          79  64  78  60 /  50  40  60  70
Atlanta         83  67  83  64 /  60  50  70  80
Blairsville     74  60  75  56 /  70  70  80  80
Cartersville    83  64  83  62 /  70  60  70  80
Columbus        90  69  90  69 /  30  40  60  60
Gainesville     77  65  77  60 /  60  60  70  80
Macon           88  68  88  66 /  40  30  70  60
Rome            82  65  83  63 /  70  60  70  80
Peachtree City  85  65  85  64 /  60  40  70  80
Vidalia         90  70  89  69 /  50  40  70  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....Lusk
AVIATION...01

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
632 AM EDT Sun May 25 2025

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Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
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Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
632 AM EDT Sun May 25 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north and central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon continuing
into the overnight hours tonight. Some thunderstorms could
become strong to severe and produce strong wind gusts, hail up to
the size of quarters, and locally heavy rainfall this evening and
tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

Scattered thunderstorms expected Monday through Friday across the
entire area, capable of producing gusty winds, heavy rainfall,
and frequent lightning. There is a marginal risk for severe
weather on Monday, with damaging winds as the primary threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.