Tornadoes and Flash Flooding in Texas, May 25 to 29, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
239 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

...New SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms possible this evening and overnight.
  Highest chance for severe weather today will be in the Big
  Country.

- Unsettled pattern in the early to middle parts of this coming week,
  with chances of strong to severe thunderstorms along with
  cooler temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

...Damaging thunderstorm complex will likely affect the Big
Country this evening.

Complex of thunderstorm is expected to develop in the Panhandle
along a cold front late this afternoon, and quickly move southeast
into the Big Country this evening. These storms are expected to
be severe with large hail and damaging winds. Winds in
particularly could equal or exceed 70 mph. All of the Big Country
is an enhanced risk of thunderstorms tonight. Some of the short
term models also develop a few storms in the Concho Valley, but
potential seems to be less certain. Best guess at timing, based on
short term models, indicate the storms moving into the Roby to
Haskell line toward 8 PM, and Abilene 9 to 10 PM. Outflow winds
may affect areas before the storms. Certainly, boaters on lakes
and campers this Memorial Day weekend should keep a weather eye on
storm development and seek shelter well ahead of the storms.
Localized flooding is also possible as rainfall could exceed 2
inches per hour.

A stationary front will bisect the region Monday, likely extending
from San Angelo to Brady/Brownwood. The atmosphere will continue
quite unstable with CAPES again over 4000 J/KG. Large hail and
damaging winds are possible in the afternoon/evening. SPC has a
has a 15 percent hatched area for large hail Monday across West
Central Texas. A tornado can not be ruled out with the stationary
front in the region and low LCL levels. Outflows from storms
tonight and Monday morning may possibly affect the stationary
front location and area of severe weather concern.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 138 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

With the severe threat tonight and on Monday will keep this short.

Main severe threat for Monday will start right around 00Z and then
continue into the evening hours hours. As mentioned already, lots
of questions about where boundaries (both outflow and a weak cold
front) end up by afternoon, what cloud cover ends up doing, and
how these effect the potential instability. In a worst case
situation though, CAPEs are above 4000 J/kg with very steep lapse
rates in place, with the potential for significant severe weather
across much of West Central Texas. Best case scenario leaves much
of the area in a cooler, cloudier air mass behind a strong
boundary and air mass just cant recover very well. Will note the
hatched hail risk from SPC and keep a mention of slight chance to
chance POPs in the forecast.

After tomorrow, much of the area should be in a slightly cooler
air mass that is little less unstable and a little less shear, but
good enough for both parameters to see scattered strong to severe
storms at times. Again, focus will probably be on whatever surface
boundaries happen to be across the area at that moment, and
especially with regards to outflow boundaries, forecasting where
those are going to be this far in advance is just not really
possible. Highs in the 80s with slight chance to chance POPs each
day look like the best forecast for the moment.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

Storm complex will move moving into KABI around 3Z, with potential
for very strong winds and heavy rainfall with IFR visibilities
into 5Z. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may continue to
affect KABI through the rest of the night, but have a lower
potential very strong/damaging winds.

Farther south, made mention of VCTS at KSJT at 3Z, though most
storms are expected to be north. MVFR ceilings otherwise return
late tonight and continue into Monday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     67  83  65  80 /  60  50  40  20
San Angelo  69  93  65  86 /  20  20  20  30
Junction    69  95  65  89 /  10  30  40  40
Brownwood   68  86  64  82 /  40  50  50  30
Sweetwater  66  83  65  81 /  60  30  20  10
Ozona       71  95  66  87 /  10  10  20  30
Brady       70  90  66  83 /  20  40  50  40

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...04