Hail and Damaging Wind in Texas, May 2, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
642 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025

SE Texas will see very active weather today from a growing risk
of severe storms, especially this afternoon. Now throughout the
late morning hours should be mostly calm, save for a few sparse
showers and the occasional isolated storm. This will be driven by
a passing shortwave, which can be seen in water vapor imagery near
south Texas. As already mentioned, any activity from this
disturbance should be very limited due high stability early this
morning. Still, one strong storm has seemingly pulled itself
together near south Texas, and may push into our area early today
before dissipating (possibly giving our NWR listeners an early
morning wake-up call).

The greater severe weather threat begins to emerge during the
late morning/early afternoon (lets say around 10 AM or so) as
inhibition/capping erodes from daytime heating. Simultaneously,
we'll see a swath of PVA push into the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods
area, preceding an approaching cold front from the north. We'll
slowly see thunderstorm activity trend upwards from here on as
PVA strengthens while instability and shear pick up. HREF puts
mean SFC CAPE broadly above 2500 J/KG, exceeding 3000 K/KG in most
areas north of I-10/US-59 (possibly to 4000 J/KG at times). 6km
shear starts off around 30 knots early in the afternoon, but is
progged to rise to 60 knots later in the day. This early afternoon
period also features steep lapse rates near 7 deC/KM, though
notably 3km SRH remains rather low, broadly under 100 m2/s2. A few
discrete/organized storms may develop ahead of the front, though
again it'll be largely confined towards the northern half of the
CWA initially.

The cold front should start to push into southeast Texas during the
mid/late afternoon (likely some around or after 1 PM). As it does,
we'll see thunderstorm activity greatly increase and begin to
propagate southward with the cold front as a broken line/clusters of
storms. Updraft helicity reaches it's apex during this period,
indicating this to be the main timeframe of focus for severe weather
threat. Additionally, the slow southward propagation of these storms
with an easterly storm motion also suggest the potential for
training storms. Model guidance shows the severe weather threat
decreasing late tonight as instability decreases, with the main line
of storms pushing offshore around midnight. By this point, the
severe weather threat should be over, with only lingering showers
persisting into Saturday morning.

SPC has most of SE Texas under an Enhanced (level 3/5) Risk for
severe weather today. Simultaneously, WPC has most of the area
under a Slight (level 2/4) Risk for excessive rainfall. All severe
weather hazards will be on the table for today, though damaging
wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall will become the primary
focus later in the afternoon as this line of storms pushes south.
With all this in mind, make sure to have multiple ways of
receiving warnings.

Saturday will feature much more benign weather behind the cold
front. Any lingering showers and storms will taper off into the
afternoon, paving the way for calm weather this weekend.

03

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Thu May 1 2025

Upper level ridging will settle in on Sunday leading to drier
conditions across inland portions of Southeast Texas. PWAT values
for portions of the coast will remain around 1.5", and with decent
moisture convergence along the coast, could see a few showers during
the day Sunday in this area. Highs will be in the lower 80s area
wide. Nighttime lows Sunday will be in the 50s to low 60s inland and
in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees along the coast. Benign weather
conditions continue into the early work week before another active
pattern takes over mid-week. Rain chances will increase Tuesday into
Wednesday as low-level moisture increases and the atmosphere
destabilizes ahead of several upper-level disturbances. Highs
through the week will generally be in the low to mid 80s. Lows will
be in the 60s to low 70s through the first half of the week.

Adams

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 626 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025

Short lived MVFR CIGs are possible early this morning, though VFR
conditions should dominate throughout most of the morning to early
afternoon. Light, spotty showers may pop up at times early today.
Scattered thunderstorms become more likely around noon, increasing
in coverage and spreading southward through the afternoon into
tonight as a cold front pushes southward. The associated cold
front should push off the coast around or just after midnight,
with lingering showers (and possibly some isolated storms)
trailing behind the front. MVFR CIGs start to fill in early
Saturday morning as showers start to taper off.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Thu May 1 2025

Light to moderate onshore winds and seas of 2 to 4 feet are expected
through the weekend. Winds are expected to strengthen early next
week and relax by mid week. Caution flags and/or Small Craft
Advisories may be needed at times. Chance for showers and storms
over the waters can be expected daily through the next several days.

Risk for strong rip currents along the Gulf facing beaches will
continue Friday and potentially through the weekend. Please avoid
going into the waters if Red Flags are present along the beaches.

Adams

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)	  84  63  77  52 /  80  80  10   0
Houston (IAH)			  87  67  81  59 /  70  80  30   0
Galveston (GLS)			  82  71  81  68 /  30  60  50  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....Adams
AVIATION...03
MARINE...Adams

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
Issued by National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1114 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025

TXZ178-179-199-200-021700-
San Jacinto TX-Northern Liberty TX-Polk TX-Montgomery TX-
1114 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EASTERN MONTGOMERY...
SOUTHEASTERN SAN JACINTO...NORTHWESTERN LIBERTY AND SOUTHEASTERN POLK
COUNTIES THROUGH NOON CDT...

At 1114 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles north of Hardin, or 10 miles southwest of Thicket, moving
northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Cleveland, Livingston, Shepherd, Hardin, Plum Grove, Kenefick,
Goodrich, North Cleveland, Dayton Lakes, Tarkington Prairie, Segno,
Moss Hill, Romayor, and Rye.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3049 9454 3049 9473 3023 9464 3017 9472
      3008 9496 3032 9516 3071 9492 3055 9455
TIME...MOT...LOC 1614Z 211DEG 30KT 3029 9477

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
Issued by National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1204 PM CDT Fri May 2 2025

TXZ178-179-200-021730-
San Jacinto TX-Northern Liberty TX-Polk TX-
1204 PM CDT Fri May 2 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN SAN JACINTO...
NORTHWESTERN LIBERTY AND POLK COUNTIES THROUGH 1230 PM CDT...

At 1204 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Goodrich, or 10 miles south of Livingston, moving northeast at 55
mph.

HAZARD...Half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Cleveland, Livingston, Shepherd, Coldspring, Goodrich, North
Cleveland, Seven Oaks, Lake Livingston State Park, Alabama-Coushatta
Reservation, West Livingston, Leggett, Moscow, Tarkington Prairie,
Segno, Romayor, and Rye.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3049 9464 3049 9473 3041 9471 3026 9483
      3041 9526 3099 9493 3088 9463 3059 9456
TIME...MOT...LOC 1704Z 205DEG 48KT 3056 9496

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH