Hail and Damaging Winds in Texas, March 4, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
Issued by National Weather Service Lubbock TX
217 AM CST Tue Mar 4 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms are likely through the early morning
  with damaging winds and a few tornadoes possible.

- Critical to Extreme fire weather conditions are expected across
  most of west central Texas today.

- Strong west winds are expected today, along with blowing dust
  which could result in low visibilities.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 213 AM CST Tue Mar 4 2025

Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to be out of the area
by no later than 8 AM this morning. Behind these storms, very
strong west to northwest winds are still expected to move into the
area. Winds of 40 to 50 knots out of the west at 850mb will be
mixed to the surface as subsidence and abundant sunshine on the
west side of the upper level trough axis work into the area.
Sustained west/northwest winds of 35 to 45 mph, along with gusts
approaching 60 mph will be possible from around 8 AM this morning
for western areas through mid to late afternoon. These winds will
impact the entire area, as well as the rest of west Texas, so we
are likely to see blowing dust in the region as well. Winds are
expected to diminish across southern areas before 6 PM, but could
linger an hour or so longer generally east of a Sweetwater to
Brownwood line. Temperatures will be cooler, with highs in the mid
60s to lower 70s. Winds will eventually diminish to less than 10
mph across the entire area. These light winds combined with
clearing skies will allow lows Tuesday night to drop into the
upper 30s to lower 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 213 AM CST Tue Mar 4 2025

Following the cold frontal passage of this current system,
temperatures will remain on the cool side for Wednesday, with
highs mainly in the 60s. Upper level ridging will follow from
Thursday into Friday, keeping our weather quiet and dry, and allow
temperatures to warm back up into the 70s for Thursday, and then
into the 70s to mid 80s for Friday.

The next upper level system will move into New Mexico by Friday
night. Models are in fairly good agreement with the path of the
upper system, but there is disagreement with the speed of the low.
In either case there remains a relatively low chance (20% to 30%)
for precipitation, mainly north of a Sweetwater to Brownwood line.
Another cold front will follow this low as it moves away from the
area, resulting in much cooler temperatures for highs Saturday,
ranging from the mid 50s north to the mid 60s south.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1209 AM CST Tue Mar 4 2025

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to develop
farther south into the Big Country and Concho Valley late into
tonight. These storms will then move east through the area likely
making it east of our forecast area by 6 AM. A few hours of TSRA
are likely, mainly at KABI, but also possible at KSJT and KBBD,
and less likely at KSOA and KJCT. Strong straight-line wind gusts
up to 60 MPH will be possible with some of these storms as well as
large hail. There is also a small chance of tornadoes along the
line of thunderstorms. The storms are expected to be east of the
area by 12Z-13Z. Also, behind these storms tonight, very strong
west to northwest winds will develop by mid-morning, and continue
into the late afternoon hours. Gusts up to around 40 knots will be
possible.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 213 AM CST Tue Mar 4 2025

...Critical to Extreme Fire Weather Conditions Today...

Strong west to northwest winds will align from the surface up
through the mid levels with winds speeds of 40 to 50 knots noted
at 850mb. As subsidence increases on the west side of the upper
level trough, and combines with ample sunshine which will help
increase mixing, these strong winds will be pushed downward toward
the surface. West to northwest winds of 35 to 45 mph, and gusts
approaching 60 mph will begin between 8 AM and 9 AM in our western
counties, quickly spreading to the rest of the forecast area by
late morning. These winds will combine with RH values dropping
into the 15% to 25% range, causing the extreme fire weather
conditions. The lower RH values will occur south of a Sterling
City to San Saba line, including the I-10 corridor. Although we
will have rain across much of the area this morning, the extreme
nature of the winds will be able to quickly dry any moisture off
of any vegetation.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     68  40  63  44 /  10   0   0   0
San Angelo  73  40  65  44 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    73  40  69  42 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   71  40  64  39 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  70  39  64  45 /  10   0   0   0
Ozona       70  41  67  45 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       72  42  65  43 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning from 8 AM this morning to 7 PM CST this
evening for Brown-Callahan-Coke-Coleman-Concho-Crockett-Fisher-
Haskell-Irion-Jones-Kimble-Mason-McCulloch-Menard-Nolan-Runnels-
San Saba-Schleicher-Shackelford-Sterling-Sutton-Taylor-
Throckmorton-Tom Green.

Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM CST this evening
for Brown-Callahan-Coke-Coleman-Concho-Crockett-Fisher-Irion-
Jones-Kimble-Mason-McCulloch-Menard-Nolan-Runnels-San Saba-
Schleicher-Sterling-Sutton-Taylor-Tom Green.

&&

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...20

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
Issued by National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
221 AM CST Tue Mar 4 2025

TXZ113-114-127-040845-
Shackelford TX-Jones TX-Taylor TX-
221 AM CST Tue Mar 4 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT JONES...NORTHWESTERN SHACKELFORD
AND CENTRAL TAYLOR COUNTIES THROUGH 245 AM CST...

At 220 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Hawley, moving northeast at 90 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Funston, Hawley, The Intersection Of Us-
180 And Farm Road 600, Buffalo Gap, Abilene, Avoca, Big Country
Baptist Assembly, Camp Butman, Caps, Dyess Afb, Impact, Lueders, Lake
Abilene, Tye, Anson, Camp Tonkawa, Lake Fort Phantom Hill, View,
Nugent, and Hodges.

This includes Interstate 20 between Mile Markers 264 and 287.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 500 AM CST for west central
Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3295 9949 3276 9952 3220 9987 3216 10014
      3240 10014 3296 9982
TIME...MOT...LOC 0820Z 214DEG 78KT 3263 9984

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

DH