Severe (D2) Drought was designated across most of Zapata and Jim Hogg County, and a portion of extreme northern Starr, from March 4-11. Conditions would continue in these areas through By March 10, before expanding and worsening.
Every event with a place to put it; 3 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BRO wrote it up.
Severe (D2) Drought was designated across most of Zapata and Jim Hogg County, and a portion of extreme northern Starr, from March 4-11. Conditions would continue in these areas through By March 10, before expanding and worsening.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Brownsville, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 3, 10:28 PM CST, 1 hour 32 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1028 PM CST Mon Mar 3 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 226 PM CST Mon Mar 3 2025
Key Messages:
* Unseasonably warm temperatures expected on Tuesday (80s and 90s);
minor HeatRisk for Brooks, Hidalgo, much of Cameron and Willacy,
western half of Inland Kenedy, and parts of Jim Hogg and Starr
Counties.
* Strong cold front to bring a substantial and drastic airmass
change on Tuesday
* Very low humidity values coupled with some breezy winds on
already dry soils will result in elevated to critical fire
weather on Tuesday.
* A Red Flag Warning is in effect for Zapata, Jim Hogg, Brooks,
Starr, and northern Hidalgo Counties
* A Fire Danger Statement is in effect for southern Hidalgo,
and Inland and Coastal Kenedy, Willacy, and Cameron Counties
Fire weather concerns along with adverse to hazardous marine/beach
conditions will be in focus through the short term weather forecast
period, particularly on Tuesday.
Through tonight, mild to warm conditions will continue as the
forecast area remains squarely in the warm sector of a formidable and
strengthening mid-latitude cyclone now ejecting out of the central
Rockies into the central Plains. Overnight low temperatures will be
on the order of about 10F degrees above normal with values ranging
from the mid to upper 70s across parts of the Northern Ranchlands to
the lower 70s across mid-lower RGV. Mist/fog is not anticipated as
sfc winds out of the south-southeast are expected to remain
elevated.
During the day on Tuesday, ahead of a strong cold front, strong warm
air advection (WAA) bolstered by increased low level jet (LLJ) winds
just to our north and offshore, and less clouds will result in above
normal daytime high temperatures (by some 10-15F degrees) with
values making a run for the mid-upper 80s to lower 90s (warmest
along the Rio Grande Valley and west).
As highlighted earlier, a strong cold front associated with a potent
988 mb mid-latitude cyclone will indeed be one of our primary
drivers of our weather pattern over the next 24-48 hours,
specifically on Tuesday. Computer models continue to advertise an
anomalously strong cold front ejecting out of the southwestern U.S.
and sweeping across Deep South Texas on Tuesday. This cold front is
associated with a deepening 988 hpa sfc low pressure system that
will track across the central Plains into the mid-Mississippi Valley
over the next 48 hours. A heightened risk for severe weather awaits
across the southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley along
with a widespread area of elevated to critical fire weather
conditions New mexico into Texas that includes us here in Deep South
Texas.
This cold front will sweep through the region on Tuesday resulting
in a significant and drastic airmass change that will trigger
elevated to critical fire weather concerns as well as adverse to
hazardous marine/beach hazards on Tuesday. Amid the cool fropa,
cooler and notably drier air mass will take place. The NBM had
noticeably higher dewpoint values after the cold frontal passage
compared to the HRRR model. Decided to go with a blend of the NBM 10
percentile and HRRR to reflect a more realistic situation with what
will take place with the dewpoints on Tuesday.
With dewpoint values expected to drop into the single digits, and
relative humidity values expected to lower under 15-20% across much
of the area, on top of breezy sfc to near sfc winds, and dry
antecedent and cured soil conditions, we decided to upgrade a Fire
Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning for Zapata, Jim Hogg, Brooks,
Starr, and northern Hidalgo Counties. Meanwhile, have opted to go
with a Fire Danger Statement for southern Hidalgo, and Inland &
Coastal Cameron, Willacy, and Kenedy Counties. The Storm Prediction
Center has a Critical Fire Weather Outlooked for our western zones
(i.e. Zapata, Jim Hogg, Starr, Brooks) and Elevated Fire Weather
concerns points east.
We urged everyone to exercise fire weather safety measures on
tomorrow. That includes no burning as a wildfire could spread
quickly upon ignition.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 226 PM CST Mon Mar 3 2025
Key Messages:
- Above normal high temperatures and near to slightly below normal
low temperatures prevail through early next week.
- Elevated fire weather concerns continue on Wednesday and return
once again over the weekend with the passage of another cold
front.
- Rain-free conditions and breezy wind gusts will persist through
the period.
A very dry airmass will be in place across Deep South Texas
Wednesday morning in wake of the passage of a Pacific cold front.
Relative humidity values Wednesday morning will range from 20-30
percent across the Northern Ranchlands to around 50-60 percent
along the Lower Texas beaches. However, these values will fall
into the 10-20 percent range along and west of US-281 and 20-30
percent along I-69 by the afternoon hours. In combination with
cured fuels and warm temperatures, this will yield elevated fire
weather concerns once again for Deep South Texas as conditions are
favorable for rapid fire starts. Fortunately, winds won't be quite
as strong as Tuesday afternoon, which should limit the potential
for rapid fire spread. A Fire Danger Statement will likely be
issued for Wednesday for most of Deep South Texas, and outdoor
burning is not recommended.
Surface high pressure will be centered over the Southeastern US by
Thursday as ridging aloft prevails over the state, allowing for
the return of low level southerly flow. A tightening pressure
gradient associated with a developing surface low east of the
Rockies will result in breezy southerly winds Thursday and Friday.
As the surface low translates across the Plains, a cold front will
sweep across the state and reach Deep South Texas on Saturday.
This will once again drop afternoon relative humidity values and
result in elevated fire weather concerns this weekend as values
range from 15-30 percent across most of the region except for the
Lower Texas beaches.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1023 PM CST Mon Mar 3 2025
MVFR conditions and breezy southeasterly winds are expected to
generally prevail through tonight, with IFR ceilings near BRO.
Winds diminish and VFR ceilings return early Tuesday, with a cold
front arriving by the afternoon with northerly winds, occasionally
gusting over 20 kts early Tuesday afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 226 PM CST Mon Mar 3 2025
Tonight through Tuesday night...Deteriorating marine conditions are
expected to take place through tonight as seas elevate. Small Craft
Exercise Caution (SCEC) conditions are in place currently. However,
Small Craft Advisory conditions will go into effect tonight and
persist into Tuesday.
Wednesday through next Monday...Adverse marine conditions will
persist through the weekend due to an enhanced pressure gradient.
Small Craft Exercise Caution to Small Craft Advisory conditions
are likely over the Gulf waters and Laguna Madre as winds and seas
remain elevated, especially towards the end of the week as a cold
front approaches. Otherwise, expect rain-free conditions.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 226 PM CST Mon Mar 3 2025
Tuesday....A strong cold front is progged to move through Deep South
Texas and the Rio Grande Valley on Tuesday. This will result in a
significant and drastic airmass change, particularly with notably
drier air moving in. Dewpoint temperatures are expected to drop into
the single digits with relative humidity values expected to drop as
low as 15% of areas inland and 20% for the coastal counties.
Additionally, winds will be in acceptable thresholds across our
western zones. As a result, a Red Flag Warning is in effect for
Zapata, Jim Hogg, Brooks, Starr, and northern Hidalgo counties.
Meanwhile, a Fire Danger Statement is in effect for southern
Hidalgo, Inland and Coastal Kenedy, Willacy, and Cameron Counties.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE 71 89 53 76 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 68 90 50 78 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 71 91 55 84 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 67 90 52 83 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 66 78 58 69 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 68 86 53 73 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from 8 AM to 9 PM CST Tuesday for TXZ248>250-
252-353.
High Rip Current Risk from 6 AM CST Tuesday through Tuesday
afternoon for TXZ451-454-455.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ130-132-135-
150-155.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST Tuesday for GMZ170-175.
&&
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...56-HallmanThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
A Severe (D2) Drought was designated for Zapata County on March 4, which continued through March 17, 2025, as a combination of very dry air, repeated dry fronts that produced northerly winds, and warmer than average temperatures created a flash drought condition.
Severe (D2) Drought was designated for all but southeastern Jim Hogg County on March 4, which continued through March 17, 2025, as a combination of very dry air, repeated dry fronts that produced northerly winds, and warmer than average temperatures created a flash drought condition. The drought expanded to include all of the county on March 11th.
Severe (D2) Drought conditions developed across the northwest tip of Starr County following weeks of very dry, breezy, and warmer than average temperatures. The drought would expand to cover all of the county on March 11th.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, March 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1248916, 1248918, 1249426.