Hail and Damaging Wind in Texas, June 8, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
244 AM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Potential of severe thunderstorms returns this afternoon and evening
   with possibility for wind gusts up to 90 mph, hail up to
   softball size, localized flash flooding, and tornadoes.

 - Daily storm chances this week with hotter temperatures by
   Friday and the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

Hang on tight because we have a lot to discuss for today. The first
half of the day should be pleasant albeit warm. WNW flow aloft will
mostly prevail through today as the FA sits between a low near the
Midwest region and a high over the TX/Mexico border. This upper
pattern will be interrupted later this afternoon when a shortwave
passes over the Texas Panhandle. A surface low sitting over
southeastern NM will pull a warm front northward through region.
Southerly flow behind the warm front will enhance low-level moisture
today. Highs today will reach the 90s for most of the region with
some areas over southern portions reaching 100. Dewpoints will
remain above 60 for most of the region today. A dryline will track
eastward into the region this afternoon shifting winds to the west
following the boundary. However, this dryline is expected to only
reach partway through the CWA before colliding with a cold front
that will push southward through the region late afternoon through
early evening effectively pushing the dryline and warm front out of
the CWA. The cold front should be out of the region late this
evening leaving light northeast to easterly winds in its wake.

Now on to the good stuff. Convective chances return to portions of
the region late this afternoon through evening hours. The greatest
chances will be over the far southern Texas Panhandle and the
Rolling Plains this evening along the cold front. Strong daytime
heating and sufficient low-level moisture will garner strong
instability values with current soundings showing CAPE greater than
4500 J/kg and 0-6km bulk shear reaching up to 65 knots. Today's set
up is favorable for development of supercells or an MCS with many
indicators for bowing segments capable of QLCS tornadoes. Supercell
development along the dryline cannot be ruled out either. A couple
of models indicate some thunderstorm development over the far
southern Texas Panhandle and northern portions of the South Plains
and tracking southeast. Any severe thunderstorms that do develop are
capable of intense winds gusts up to 90 mph, extremely large hail up
to softball size, and tornadoes. Torrential rainfall is also
possible with these thunderstorms therefore, localized flooding is
possible.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

The extended forecast remains an unsettled one with a distinct shift
more toward heavy rain and flooding instead of severe thunderstorms.
This is thanks to a marked decay of winds throughout much of the
troposphere while we hold onto above normal PWATs spanning 130 to
160 percent of normal. Following mostly low chances for post-frontal
showers and storms on Monday under increasingly confluent NW flow,
larger scale ascent will improve by Monday night through Wednesday
as a pair of slow-moving shortwave troughs affect the region within
weak WNW flow. WPC's excessive rain outlook highlights our area for
Tuesday and Wednesday which aligns well with this pattern and has
good support from the GEFS and EC ensembles. Thereafter, guidance
remains in good agreement with amplifying upper ridging over the
Desert Southwest that slowly edges into our area by Friday into the
weekend accompanied by diminishing PoPs and more typical summer
heat. High temps from Mon-Wed remain 10-15 degrees below climo given
the abundant moisture/clouds and periodic showers.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through this TAF period. Winds will
remain light and variable through late afternoon early evening.
Southerly winds will become breezy late afternoon before shifting
to the east as a cold front tracks through the region this
evening. Thunderstorms are expected to develop around 0Z and
should impact KCDS. Can expect strong wind gusts with any severe
thunderstorms and intense rainfall rates are also possible.
Thunderstorms will also form near KPVW however, are not expected
to impact the terminal. MVFR ceilings are possible by the end of
this TAF period however, confidence is low therefore, left out of
TAF at this time.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...10

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
251 AM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

TXZ021>044-090800-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
251 AM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop late this afternoon
through evening. The greatest chances are over the far southern
Texas Panhandle and the Rolling Plains although thunderstorm
development over the South Plains cannot be ruled out. Strong wind
gusts up to 90 mph, very large hail up to softball size, localized
flooding, and tornadoes can be expected with any severe thunderstorms
that develop.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Daily chances for thunderstorms continue this week. Light winds
aloft will be favorable for locally heavy rain and flooding at
times, especially Tuesday and Wednesday. Some severe thunderstorms
will also be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.