A persistent mid-level anticyclonic circulation remained over Texas and generated thunderstorms over South-Central Texas. Some of these storms produced locally heavy rain that led to flash flooding.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS EWX wrote it up.
A persistent mid-level anticyclonic circulation remained over Texas and generated thunderstorms over South-Central Texas. Some of these storms produced locally heavy rain that led to flash flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 6, 1:33 PM CST, 1 hour 57 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 233 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 A mid level MCV and unusually moist airmass, with PWs of 1.7 to 2.4 inches, remain in place over our area. We're seeing showers and thunderstorms develop across the CWA and expect this to continue until this evening. With the high PW and slow cell motion, locally heavy rain will be possible. A Flood Watch remains in effect for the Hill Country and I-35 Corridor. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected with isolated amounts up to 10 inches possible. This rain will aggravate ongoing flooding and likely create new flooding as soils are saturated making runoff more rapid. The heaviest rain is expected over the Hill Country to along the I-35 corridor. The MCV will weaken some by Monday with only a slight decrease in moisture/PWs. Showers and thunderstorms may be less focused and have only slight chances on Monday. The clouds and rain areas will keep daytime temperatures below to well below average. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 The mid level feature will be replaced by an inverted trough moving onto the Texas coast Tuesday keeping moisture levels elevated. The blended guidance has caught on to the trends of the last several model runs and indicates low chances of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and again Wednesday afternoon. This will spread from the Coastal Plains to the Hill Country. The blended model solution shows the subtropical ridge building over the region over the latter part of the week bringing dry and warmer weather. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 Opted to go with PROB30s to account for uncertainty with -TSRA timing and coverage. Ultimately, any storm that forms would bring extreme rainfall rates and a reduction in visibilities. Winds should remain southeasterly at about 10 kts through the evening before falling to less than 5 kts overnight. Have kept vicinity showers in play as well through today and into the overnight hours. MVFR ceilings return after 9-10Z Monday morning and stick around through late morning Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 74 92 74 93 / 30 20 0 20 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 74 91 74 93 / 30 20 0 20 New Braunfels Muni Airport 74 92 73 93 / 30 20 0 20 Burnet Muni Airport 73 89 72 90 / 20 20 0 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 77 94 76 95 / 10 10 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 74 90 74 91 / 20 20 0 10 Hondo Muni Airport 74 90 73 91 / 20 10 0 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 74 92 73 93 / 30 20 0 20 La Grange - Fayette Regional 75 91 74 92 / 10 30 0 30 San Antonio Intl Airport 76 91 75 92 / 30 10 0 20 Stinson Muni Airport 76 93 74 94 / 30 10 0 20 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for Bandera-Bastrop- Bexar-Blanco-Burnet-Caldwell-Comal-Gillespie-Guadalupe-Hays- Kendall-Kerr-Lee-Llano-Medina-Travis-Williamson. && Short-Term...05 Long-Term...05 Aviation...MMM
The Austin/San Antonio radar (KEWX), 109 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:31 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Thunderstorms produced heavy rain that led to flash flooding closing several points on Hayden Ranch Rd. west of Fredericksburg.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, July 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1278722.