Wildfire in Hawaii, July 6 to 7, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
341 AM HST Sun Jul 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong high pressure ridge anchored in place north of Hawaii
will produce a stable and breezy to windy trade wind weather
through Monday. Wind speeds will decrease slightly on Tuesday into
moderate to breezy range. Brief passing showers will favor
windward and mountain slopes, with late afternoon to evening
showers along the Kona slopes of the Big Island, other leeward
areas will be mostly dry.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The satellite picture this morning continues to show fairly stable
stratocumulus clouds riding into the windward mountain slopes of
each island on the easterly trade winds. Upper air balloon
soundings over the past 24 hours at Lihue and Hilo are observing
temperature inversion heights in the 6,000 to 7,000 foot range.
This means that brief passing showers as shown on local doppler
radar will continue mainly over windward and mountain areas.

The strong ridge north of the state will build in over the islands
today, increasing trade wind speeds into low level Wind Advisory
thresholds for windier areas of Maui and Hawaii Counties. A Wind
Advisory was issued this morning for 20 to 30 MPH wind speeds with
gusts up to 50 MPH at times lasting through Monday afternoon.
Fairly dry conditions with lower humidity levels coupled with
these stronger winds will produce elevated fire weather conditions
over leeward areas during the late morning to afternoon hours.
Wind speeds will decrease slightly into the moderate to breezy
range from Tuesday onward. Weather conditions into Wednesday
continue to show a dry and breezy summer time conditions through
much of the week. In the medium to long range weather outlook,
operational models and model blends continue to show a slight
increase in low level moisture and possibly a modest increase in
shower activity from Wednesday night onward.

&&

.AVIATION...
A strong high pressure ridge north of the Hawaiian Islands will
maintain fairly stable conditions and breezy to windy easterly
trade winds through Monday. Passing showers will favor windward
and mountain areas in the overnight to early morning hours,
bringing the potential for brief MVFR conditions. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate low-level turbulence
over and downwind of island terrain. This AIRMET will likely
persist as strong trade winds remain in the forecast.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will remain far north of area for the next several
days, which will support fresh to strong trade winds across the
islands. The Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all
Hawaiian coastal waters until 6 PM HST Monday, but this will
likely need to be extended for some zones as gusty trades persist
into early next week. The aforementioned surface high will move
eastward and weaken slightly during the latter half of the week,
but winds are likely to remain locally breezy in the typical
windier channels and waters throughout much of the next seven
days.

Surf along all shores will remain mostly unchanged through the
rest of the weekend, though south shore surf is expected to slowly
decline as a south swell fades over the next several days. The
next small, medium- to long-period south swell is expected to
arrive late Tuesday through Wednesday. This swell may boost south-
facing shore surf heights to near summertime averages as it peaks
on Wednesday. It will then decline through the rest of next week.

Surf along east-facing shores will be rough and choppy in
response to the gusty easterly trade winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Breezy, gusty, and rather dry conditions will continue for the
next few days. Minimum relative humidity at lower leeward
elevations will likely fall at or below 45 percent each afternoon.
Temperature inversion heights will drop as low as 5,000 feet.
This will result in near critical fire weather conditions over dry
leeward areas at times, though no headlines (watches or warnings)
will be issued since the Keetch Byram Drought Index will remain
below the 600 threshold at Honolulu.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for Lanai Mauka-Kahoolawe-
Maui Windward West-Maui Leeward West-Kohala-Molokai-Lanai
Windward-Lanai Leeward-Lanai South-Maui Central Valley North-
Maui Central Valley South-Windward Haleakala-South Haleakala-Big
Island South-Big Island Southeast-Big Island North.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for all Hawaiian
waters.

&&

DISCUSSION...Bohlin
AVIATION...Bohlin
MARINE...Walsh
FIRE WEATHER...Bohlin