Weak upper-level disturbances, differential heating, and sufficient moisture allowed for the development of a few thunderstorms in Southeast New Mexico and West Texas. One storm managed to produce a severe downburst, which was reported by an off-duty NWS employee.
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The episode as NWS MAF wrote it up.
Weak upper-level disturbances, differential heating, and sufficient moisture allowed for the development of a few thunderstorms in Southeast New Mexico and West Texas. One storm managed to produce a severe downburst, which was reported by an off-duty NWS employee.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Midland/Odessa, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 26, 4:43 PM CST, 3 hours 51 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 543 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 542 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 - Shower/thunderstorm chances will continue through Sunday. Best chances (30-50%) are in the Davis Mountains, Marfa Plateau, and portions of the Big Bend with 10-20% chances elsewhere. Localized flash flooding, gusty winds, and frequent lightning are the main concerns. - Storm chances will mainly become confined over areas west of the Pecos and in the higher terrain into early this coming week. - Temperatures will average near to slightly above normal through the extended forecast period. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Sunday night) Issued at 129 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Not much has changed from the previous forecast package. Current satellite imagery and latest RAP analysis depicts an upper-level high over the southeastern CONUS and inverted troughing from northern Mexico extending to eastern New Mexico. This setup will allow more isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening across portions of the region. The greatest (30-40%) chance of storms lie across portions of the Davis Mountains, thanks to upslope flow. Storms are anticipated to initialize in the Davis Mountains early this afternoon before expanding in coverage into the Lower Trans Pecos and southeast New Mexico later today. Any outflow boundaries from these storms have the potential of moving into the Permian Basin and into areas elsewhere which will provide further isolated storm development. Therefore, areas especially across the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos have a low (10-15%) chance in seeing storms early this evening. The strongest storms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall resulting in flash flooding for a few spots, gusty winds up to 60 mph, and frequent lightning. Forecast soundings highlight more of a flash flooding threat than anything else this afternoon and evening. Skinny CAPE profiles, PWATs reaching near the 75th climatological percentile (1.2-1.35 in), and slow storm motions signal heavy rainfall producers. Forecast soundings also depict "inverted-V" profiles and high (> 1200 J/kg) DCAPE values highlighting the wind gust threat and a microburst potential. Tonight, storm coverage significantly decreases across the region, especially after 11PM CT/10PM MT. Low temperatures remain near normal for this time of year mainly reaching the mid 60s to 70s regionwide. By tomorrow, guidance has inverted troughing over the region, providing sufficient moisture, lift, and instability for more thunderstorms to develop. The Davis Mountains once again are forecasted to have greatest (30-50%) precipitation chance, while areas elsewhere remain low (10-20%). Similar hazards compared with Saturday's storms are expected due to not much change within environmental parameters. Increased cloud coverage over the region due to the inverted troughing over the region will drop high temperatures to slightly below to near normal for this time of year. Low temperatures Monday morning remain similar as Sunday morning temperatures being in the mid 60s to 70s areawide. Lamberson && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 129 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Little change to the long term forecast. By Monday and Tuesday, the best moisture and ascent for shower and storm development stay along the western portions of the CWA. Upper level ridge expands and the axis of said ridge moves over Texas/the Southern Great Plains for Tuesday through Thursday. Overall moisture values drop a fair amount compared to the last several days. Temperatures inch to just above normal in the upper 90s for most. Upper 80s to low 90s hang on in the higher terrain. An isolated shower or storm cannot be ruled out due to orographic lift, but highest rain chances will be just 10- 20%. Long range guidance/ensembles show the ridge shifting to the west of the region and the pattern takes on a more classic monsoon look with the ridge nearing the Four Corners. Overall weak upper level flow and a return of deeper moisture looks to lead to a return of broad, but low(10-30%) rain chances across West Texas and southeast New Mexico. Lows each night remain about the same in the upper 60s to the west and settling in the low to mid 70s elsewhere. -Stickney && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 542 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 VFR conditions should prevail next 24 hours in modest return flow. Forecast soundings develop a widespread cu field by late morning/early afternoon Sunday, w/bases ~ 4.5-5 kft AGL. Convection chances too low for a mention. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 74 93 73 95 / 10 10 0 0 Carlsbad 71 93 71 92 / 10 10 0 20 Dryden 74 93 74 95 / 10 10 0 0 Fort Stockton 72 92 72 94 / 10 10 0 10 Guadalupe Pass 69 87 67 84 / 0 10 10 30 Hobbs 70 92 70 91 / 10 10 0 0 Marfa 62 85 63 85 / 0 50 10 40 Midland Intl Airport 74 93 73 94 / 10 10 0 0 Odessa 74 91 73 93 / 10 10 0 0 Wink 73 93 73 94 / 10 10 0 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....93 AVIATION...
The Midland/Odessa radar (KMAF), 18 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 02:35 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
An off-duty NWS employee reported a severe downburst wind gust near Gardendale. The maximum wind speed is estimated. The time of occurrence is also estimated.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, July 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1276993.