A broad long-wave trough with progressive jet stream resulted in high winds across the Guadalupe, Delaware, and Davis Mountains and immediately adjacent plains.
Every event with a place to put it; 6 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MAF wrote it up.
A broad long-wave trough with progressive jet stream resulted in high winds across the Guadalupe, Delaware, and Davis Mountains and immediately adjacent plains.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Midland/Odessa, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 17, 11:01 AM CST, 45 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1101 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1055 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025
- Very warm and windy conditions are in store for much the area
today, while low relative humidity also brings increased fire
danger late this morning through early this evening.
- A strong cold front will move into the region Saturday morning
and a very cold airmass will settle into the area late this
weekend into early next week.
- Dangerously low wind chills will likely (> 80% confidence)
necessitate cold weather products late this weekend through
early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 342 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025
Current water vapor imagery depicts an upper level low situated over
southwestern Arizona as well as a digging trough off the southern
coast of California. The trough will eject as an open wave north of
the region creating the threat of hazardous winds across west Texas
and southeast New Mexico Friday morning into late Friday evening.
Deterministic and ensemble guidance show a mountain wave signature
over the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains translating further to the
east by mid morning into the afternoon. Guidance is also in
agreement positioning a 45-55 kt jet maxima for both the 700 and
850mb levels developing over these areas during this timeframe. Due
to this, Winkler, Loving, and Ward counties have been upgraded to a
High Wind Warning. Cloud cover is anticipated to dissipate from
north to south throughout the day, supplying mixing for the strong
winds to occur. Models continue to indicate the cloud cover to stick
around longer for areas along and south of the I-10 corridor,
supplying these areas with lower winds. Another concern with these
winds will be the potential of blowing dust, given the dry soils and
not much rain to speak of over an extended amount of time.
Visibilities are expected to drop to less than a mile for localized
areas, especially for areas near open fields. Temperatures will be 8-
12 degrees above normal for most portions of the region, thanks to
thermal ridging and downsloping winds. By midnight, winds shall
subside for the entire area as the upper level system continues to
propagate eastward.
A cold front is expected to arrive shortly after the winds subside.
Models are mostly in agreement that the front enters the Permian
Basin by early Saturday morning. Saturday high temperatures are
anticipated to be 5-10 degrees below normal which will begin the
trend of colder weather in store going into next week. See the long
term discussion for more details!
Lamberson
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 342 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025
A period of much below normal temperatures will impact the
forecast area late this weekend into the early part of next week
as a very cold arctic airmass settles across southeast New Mexico
and west and southwest Texas in the wake of the passage of a
strong cold front on Saturday. A brief period of high winds
(strong northeasterly gap winds) could impact Guadalupe Pass late
Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Low temperatures are
forecast to bottom out in the teens and 20s across all of our area
during the overnight/early morning hours Saturday night/early
Sunday morning through Tuesday night/Wednesday morning of next
week. High temperatures are also only expected to reach into the
30s across most of the area Sunday through Tuesday, except in the
40s to lower 50s along portions of the Trans Pecos, Big Bend, and
Rio Grande. We continue to have high confidence (>80 percent) that
cold weather products will need to be issued for just about all
of our forecast area, particularly during the overnight and early
morning hours late this weekend into the early part of next week
when wind chill values drop into the single digits for many.
A shortwave trough will pass across our region Monday night into
Tuesday morning. Moisture with this feature will be limited and we
mainly only anticipate some increase in cloud cover with this
system. We cannot entirely rule out a few snow flurries Monday
night/early Tuesday morning, but associated precipitation chances
remain very low (10 percent or less) at this time given a relatively
dry airmass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.
The cold surface dome of high pressure is forecast to shift to the
east of our region Wednesday, allowing for a warmer southerly flow
to develop over our area. Temperatures are forecast to trend
warmer in the upper 40s to mid 50s over most of our forecast area
by Wednesday afternoon. Another cold front currently looks to push
through our region by Thursday morning, perhaps knocking high
temperatures back down a few degrees into the mid 40s to around
50s degrees over the central and northern portions of our forecast
area for Thursday afternoon. Dry weather conditions are expected
to continue both Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1055 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025
Strong and gusty westerlies are materializing where high clouds
have cleared out, and momentum should carry these beyond sundown
into the evening hours as the upper trough moves through. BLDU is
a given. As winds relax this evening, a cold front will approach
the area. Winds aren't particularly strong behind this front, so
trying to pinpoint fropa is difficult. Surface winds will veer
around and become light/variable by the end of the forecast
period.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 342 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025
The combination of temperatures averaging about 10 degrees above
normal, strong westerly winds, and relative humidity values
dropping to as low as 15-20 percent will bring elevated fire
danger to most of our forecast area late this morning through
early this evening. We have issued a Fire Danger Statement to
highlight the increased fire danger potential across the region
today.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 69 33 49 21 / 0 0 0 0
Carlsbad 63 37 60 23 / 0 0 0 0
Dryden 74 45 69 28 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Stockton 69 43 64 23 / 0 0 0 0
Guadalupe Pass 53 36 51 20 / 0 0 0 0
Hobbs 63 30 53 18 / 0 0 0 0
Marfa 61 36 57 19 / 0 0 0 0
Midland Intl Airport 66 35 53 21 / 0 0 0 0
Odessa 66 35 54 22 / 0 0 0 0
Wink 66 35 59 23 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Warning until 11 PM CST /10 PM MST/ this evening for
Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
Mountains-Loving-Reeves County Plains-Ward-Winkler.
Wind Advisory until 11 PM CST this evening for Andrews-Borden-
Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-
Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-Marfa Plateau-Martin-
Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Scurry-Upton-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.
NM...High Wind Warning until 10 PM MST this evening for Eddy County
Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Southern Lea.
Wind Advisory until 10 PM MST this evening for Central Lea-
Northern Lea.
&&
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...44The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
6 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
CWOP Station FW9692 Pecos reported a maximum wind gust of 67 mph in western Reeves County.
A 73 MPH wind gust was observed at the Guadalupe Mountains National Park Mesonet.
West Texas Mesonet site 20 WSW Orla reported a maximum wind gust of 61 mph in eastern Culberson County.
RAWS station WDPT2 Wolf Den DMP reported a maximum wind gust of 58 mph in the Davis Mountains.
RAWS station GDBT2, The Bowl, reported a maximum wind gust of 61 mph in the Guadalupe Mountains.
Pinery RAWS station PSGT2 reported a maximum wind gust of 60 MPH near Guadalupe Pass.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, January 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1234125, 1229227, 1234130, 1234134, 1234127, 1234132.