Scattered thunderstorms developed during the late evening hours of the 28th into the early morning hours of the 29th along a retreating dryline. A strong low level jet developed during this time period which fueled thunderstorm initiation and maintenance from the southern South Plains into the Rolling Plains.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LUB wrote it up.
Scattered thunderstorms developed during the late evening hours of the 28th into the early morning hours of the 29th along a retreating dryline. A strong low level jet developed during this time period which fueled thunderstorm initiation and maintenance from the southern South Plains into the Rolling Plains. A few of these storms became severe as they moved over the region taking advantage of ample elevated instability. One storm produced a wet microburst near O'Donnell generating a wind gust of 93 mph. Additional thunderstorms produced severe wind gusts over the Rolling Plains.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lubbock, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 28, 11:09 PM CST, 45 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1209 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over eastern portions of the Rolling Plains through this evening, with additional storms possible late tonight east of I-27. - Cooler temperatures are expected on Tuesday behind a morning cold front, with additional chances for severe thunderstorms beginning Tuesday afternoon. - The potential for significant flash flooding is expected across the Rolling Plains late Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning. - Daily chances for thunderstorms, some severe, will continue Wednesday through the weekend, with a slight reprieve on Thursday. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 222 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Upper air analysis highlights a belt of fairly strong southwest flow aloft stretching from far West Texas all the way into the upper Midwest ahead of a compact mid/upper level low over southern UT at 18z. At the surface, a deepening trough axis centered over eastern NM has allowed dry westerly low level flow to overspread the Caprock, with the dryline analyzed over the Rolling Plains at 18z. East of the dryline, model soundings and visible satellite imagery point to a weak to moderate capping inversion remaining in place, which will continue to gradually erode over the next few hours. Scattered thunderstorms are therefore expected to develop along and east of the dryline as inhibition continues to decrease, with PoPs this afternoon through most of this evening confined to areas east of the dryline across the eastern Rolling Plains and dry conditions continuing elsewhere. With MUCAPEs above 3000 J/kg and bulk shear magnitudes above 40 kt in the moist sector, storms that do develop will likely become severe with large hail the primary hazard before these storms quickly exit our forecast area to the east. Later this evening, additional thunderstorms may develop along the retreating dryline, with any discrete cell during this period capable of producing a tornado or two during a short window from mid evening to just after sunset as the low level jet begins to intensify, but whether or not these storms can develop is uncertain given relatively weak large scale forcing and decreasing low level confluence. Otherwise, yet another window for a few scattered storms will exist along and east of I-27 late tonight as the low level jet reaches its peak intensity, although any overnight storms will be elevated with large hail as a primary hazard. On Tuesday, a cold front is expected to reach the far southern TX Panhandle during the morning hours, before slowly progressing southward during the rest of the day. A majority of guidance indicates that this front will become quasi-stationary on Tuesday afternoon as it collides with dry westerly surface flow courtesy of continued troughing over SE NM. As is often the case though, the front will likely end up farther south than models currently indicate, and our current expectation is for the boundary to be over southern portions of the South Plains and Rolling Plains during the afternoon hours. This may result in a triple point setting up somewhere near southern portions of the I-27 corridor where the dryline intersects the cold front, which should serve as a focus for thunderstorm development Tuesday afternoon which will then move into the Rolling Plains Tuesday evening. The atmosphere in the moist sector Tuesday afternoon will be similar to today, with instability and shear parameters supportive of severe thunderstorms capable of all hazards. The severe threat Tuesday afternoon and evening will primarily be focused over eastern portions of the Rolling Plains, with generally weaker and more elevated storms expected north of the boundary over the rest of the region. Have favored the cooler end of guidance for temperatures Tuesday given the presence of the front, with highs ranging from the mid 60s across the southern TX Panhandle to the low 80s across our southern zones. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 222 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 The unsettled weather pattern continues for much of the long term period, with chances for thunderstorms nearly each afternoon as a series of upper level disturbances move in from the western CONUS. The overnight period Tuesday into early Wednesday morning looks to be pretty active across the Rolling Plains, with ongoing scattered thunderstorms from Tuesday evening possibly becoming more organized into an MCS during the overnight period as we see mid-level ascent increase with the H5 jet moving overhead, in addition to the ramping up of the LLJ across portions of the forecast area. At the surface, the cold front is expected to be nearly stationary across the southern portion of the FA, with the associated convergence in addition to the other parameters listed above creating a favorable environment for additional thunderstorm development. Given the recent rainfall, with WTM stations over the last 72 hours recording precipitation totals up to 3 inches across the Rolling Plains, in combination with PWATs well above seasonal normals and the expectation of training thunderstorms, heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be a concern with thunderstorms that develop. Although not widespread, we could see a few isolated severe thunderstorms as storms become more organized with damaging winds and large hail with MUCAPE values around 1500 J/kg as well as bulk shear magnitudes of 50+ knots. Showers and thunderstorms will likely continue through the morning hours Wednesday, before we see a slight decrease in activity through the afternoon and evening with the departing of the shortwave trough off to the east across the northeast TX region. Ongoing precipitation and scattered cloud cover, along with the overnight FROPA, will allow for temperatures to trend cooler in the 70s for most areas with temperatures near 80 across our southern zones. Mostly quiet weather with a slight reprieve in precipitation is expected on Thursday, with zonal flow aloft present overhead of the FA, as we find ourselves in between upper level systems. Expect slightly warmer temperatures in the mid to upper 70s to mid 80s on Thursday thanks to partly sunny skies and increased thickness values. An uptick in activity is expected late Thursday evening as a cold front from the north surges southward into the area, while a dryline remains established along the I-27 corridor, providing a focus for thunderstorm development. Behind the front, temperatures will cool with highs on Friday in the 60s to low 70s area-wide with post frontal northerly winds quickly shifting out of the east as the surface high departs to the east and a surface low sets up over eastern NM. This will lead to moist-upslope flow over much of the FA which will give way to the continuation of thunderstorm chances each afternoon through the weekend. Ensembles continue to hint at the chances for precipitation continuing as a amplified upper level low barrels through the Desert Southwest region and into the TX Panhandle region early next week. Given the uncertainty with the evolution of this system this far out, will go ahead and maintain NBM PoPs. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1209 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 A line of storms continues to form to the south of KLBB, and is moving northeast at 30 kt. The bulk of the line should remain east and southeast of the terminal as it continues to evolve, but variable wind gusts and brief downpours will be possible. A TEMPO group has been assigned through 08Z. This line of storms will continue northeastward towards KCDS while remaining to the east of KPVW. A cold front will sag southward through the terminals later this morning and stall. Prospects for severe storms will increase at all terminals this afternoon and evening. Sincavage && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...09
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1028 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 TXZ021>044-300330- Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd- Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum- Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall- 1028 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle. .DAY ONE...Tonight. A few thunderstorms are possible mainly along and east of I-27 late tonight. The primary hazard with these overnight storms will be hail up to the size of golf balls along with heavy rainfall. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Chances for severe thunderstorms will continue Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night for portions of the Caprock and Rolling Plains. Heavy rainfall may result in a potentially significant flash flooding event Tuesday night into Wednesday morning across the Rolling Plains. Daily chances for thunderstorms, some severe, will then continue for the rest of the week and into the weekend. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed.
The Lubbock radar (KLBB), 74 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 05:56 UTC.
3 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A wet microburst affected the Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet site near O'Donnell measuring a wind gust to 93 mph.
A Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet site near Post measured a wind gust to 64 mph.
A Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet site near Guthrie measured severe wind gusts from 0112 CST through 0115 CST. A peak wind gust of 62 mph was measured at 0112 CST.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, April 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1244051, 1244055, 1244058.