Tornado and Flash Flooding in Kansas, April 28, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
243 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increasing confidence in scattered severe thunderstorms this
evening, most likely along/north of I-70. Up to baseball sized hail,
damaging winds 70 mph, and a few tornadoes possible.

- A few additional storms should develop after midnight along a cold
front. These are most likely south of I-70, with mainly a hail and
damaging wind threat.

- Shower and thunderstorms chances continue through midweek. Severe
weather chances will be lower, though a low chance for localized
flooding remains, mostly south of I-35.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

Short term mesoscale discussion through tonight: Current surface
analysis depicts a dryline moving eastward across northeast Kansas.
This dryline is currently located along a line from around Concordia
south-southwestward towards Lyons. With southerly winds ahead of the
dryline and west-southwesterly winds behind it, surface convergence
appears to be enough that confidence is increasing in a few
scattered storms developing by around 5-6 PM. This appears most
likely along a corridor from near Junction City up to Marysville,
give or take 25 miles. With around 3000 J/kg of ML CAPE and 55-60
kts of effective shear, coupled with only weak mid-level height
falls, and conditions are strongly favorable for supercells. These
would generally move northeast through the evening hours, likely
exiting to the east by around 9-10 PM. Coverage of storms is likely
to be highest along and north of I-70, dropping off as you go south.
Given the highly favorable shear/instability parameters, very large
hail to around baseball size would be likely with any persistent
supercell, along with potential for damaging RFD winds. The tornado
threat looks initially modest early evening, given weaker low-level
shear and slightly higher LCLs out west. However as storms approach
northeast Kansas by around 7-8 PM, there could be a few hour window
of higher tornado potential. Surface winds appear a bit more backed
here, and the strengthening LLJ should increase 0-1 km shear to
around 20-25 kts. Some backing above 2-3 km does limit effective SRH
some, but 0-1 km SRH does appear supportive of some tornado risk
with any sustained supercell. After the first storms depart to the
east, after midnight there is potential for a second round of storms
as a cold front presses southward. This round appears to be focused
mainly along and south of I-70. The continued push of the cold front
should keep the severe risk lower, but some large hail and damaging
wind gusts should remain possible before sunrise.

Rest of the period: Tomorrow into Wednesday, the cold front will
stall south of our area. The southern portion of the upper trough
bringing today's severe weather will get pinched off over the
Southern Plains before finally lifting northeast Wednesday night. As
this process takes place, we should see a few more rounds of showers
and thunderstorms. Instability and shear don't support much of a
severe threat, but will likely support some rainfall amounts of
around an inch across east-central Kansas. Still a low risk for some
minor flooding if storms persist longer over any one period, but not
expecting widespread hydro issues at this point. Expecting drier
conditions for the end of the week and into the weekend as upper
ridging builds across our area and the upper pattern becomes
blockier. Temperatures look to remain near seasonal averages, with
highs in the low/mid 70s and lows around 50.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

Gusty south winds will continue this afternoon, eventually
becoming northwesterly after midnight as a cold front pushes
southeast through the area. Two potential rounds of scattered
storms, the first with a few supercells this evening north of I-70,
with additional storms developing along the front along/south of I-
70 after midnight. Scattered to broken MVFR ceilings linger
this afternoon, gradually clearing out this evening apart from
thunderstorms. VFR ceilings are expected for the remainder of
the period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Reese
AVIATION...Reese

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
238 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-291945-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
238 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Kansas, east central
Kansas, north central Kansas and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Isolated strong to severe storms are likely to develop by the early
evening hours, mainly east of a line from Marysville to Junction City.
These storms will be capable of all severe threats - very large hail
(up to baseball size) and damaging winds (60 to 70 mph) and a few
tornadoes.

More widespread storms likely develop along a southeast-moving cold
front after midnight in east-central KS with the main threats being
large hail and damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER MESSAGE

Weather spotters are encouraged to relay reports of hail, damaging
wind, tornadoes and flooding.

&&

More detailed information can be found at:
www.weather.gov/media/top/DssPacket.pdf